Grêmio vs São Paulo Football Stats

📍 Serie A, Brazil
🕒 Thursday 16th October, 23:00 BST

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Grêmio sit 13th in the table after 24 games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per home match this season. São Paulo are 8th after 24 games, averaging 0.7 scored and 1.4 conceded on the road. Grêmio have the stronger home record this season (6/10, 60%) against a São Paulo side who've won 1/10 away (10%).

Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches this season. Grêmio have seen 3+ goals in only 20% of home fixtures; São Paulo in 40% away. Grêmio average 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded at home, São Paulo 0.7 and 1.4 on the road — the numbers point toward a tight game.

BTTS figures are mid-range for both sides — Grêmio at 30% in home games (3/10), São Paulo at 50% away (5/10). Neither a clear yes nor no based on the stats alone.

High corner counts are a feature of both teams' games this season — Grêmio have seen 10+ corners in 70% of home fixtures (7/10), São Paulo in 70% away (7/10). Over 9.5 Corners looks well supported.

Our Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals — Grêmio have stayed under 3 goals in 80% of home games, São Paulo in 60% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

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League Table

The full Serie A table for the 2025 season, with Grêmio (13th) and São Paulo (8th) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Serie A 2025

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Flamengo 28 17 7 4 59:23 +36 58
2 Palmeiras 28 16 6 6 55:27 +28 54
3 Mirassol 28 15 8 5 47:27 +20 53
4 Botafogo 29 14 9 6 48:33 +15 51
5 Cruzeiro 28 13 11 4 40:24 +16 50
6 Fluminense 28 14 5 9 37:27 +10 47
7 Bahia 28 13 6 9 41:36 +5 45
8 São Paulo A 28 12 3 13 35:38 -3 39
9 Santos 28 10 9 9 37:39 -2 39
10 Grêmio H 28 10 7 11 38:36 +2 37
11 Vitória 28 9 9 10 25:38 -13 36
12 Vasco da Gama 28 10 5 13 44:47 -3 35
13 Atlético Mineiro 28 9 7 12 33:34 -1 34
14 Fortaleza 28 9 6 13 33:48 -15 33
15 Corinthians 28 8 9 11 30:33 -3 33
16 Internacional 28 9 6 13 32:43 -11 33
17 Ceará 29 7 7 15 23:33 -10 28
18 Bragantino 28 8 4 16 33:49 -16 28
19 Juventude 28 7 6 15 27:47 -20 27
20 Sport Recife 28 2 8 18 23:58 -35 14

Team Form

Grêmio hold a clear edge in home form this season (60% wins), while São Paulo have been less consistent on the road (10%). Home advantage could be decisive here.

Grêmio (Home Form) São Paulo (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 6 (60%) 1 (10%)
Drawn 3 (30%) 3 (30%)
Lost 1 (10%) 6 (60%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Grêmio have seen both teams score in 30% of home games, São Paulo in 50% of away games. The full BTTS breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Grêmio (Home Form) São Paulo (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 3 (30%) 5 (50%)

Match Goals

Grêmio have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 20% of home games, São Paulo in 40% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Over Goals

Grêmio (Home Form) São Paulo (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 9 (90%) 8 (80%)
Over 1.5 Goals 6 (60%) 6 (60%)
Over 2.5 Goals 2 (20%) 4 (40%)
Over 3.5 Goals 2 (20%) 2 (20%)

Under Goals

Grêmio (Home Form) São Paulo (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 1 (10%) 2 (20%)
Under 1.5 Goals 4 (40%) 4 (40%)
Under 2.5 Goals 8 (80%) 6 (60%)
Under 3.5 Goals 8 (80%) 8 (80%)

Team Goals

Grêmio have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, São Paulo in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Grêmio (Home Form) São Paulo (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 8 (80%) 6 (60%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 5 (50%) 1 (10%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 1 (10%) 0 (0%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Grêmio (Home Form) São Paulo (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 4 (40%) 7 (70%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 2 (20%) 5 (50%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 2 (20%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goal Totals

Grêmio (Home Form) São Paulo (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 14 (1.4 avg) 7 (0.7 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 6 (0.6 avg) 14 (1.4 avg)

Match Corners

Both Grêmio (80% Over 8.5 at home) and São Paulo (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches. Expect plenty of set-piece opportunities from both sides.

Grêmio (Home Form) São Paulo (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 8 (80%) 8 (80%)
Over 8.5 Corners 8 (80%) 7 (70%)
Over 9.5 Corners 7 (70%) 7 (70%)
Over 10.5 Corners 5 (50%) 5 (50%)
Over 11.5 Corners 3 (30%) 4 (40%)
Over 12.5 Corners 2 (20%) 4 (40%)

Team Corners

Grêmio have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 50% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

São Paulo have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 40% of away matches.

Corners Won

Grêmio (Home Form) São Paulo (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 7 (70%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 4 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 3 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 2 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 2 (20%)

Corners Conceded

Grêmio (Home Form) São Paulo (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 6 (60%) 6 (60%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 3 (30%) 6 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 4 (40%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 2 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 1 (10%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Grêmio and São Paulo. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

18th May, 2025
São Paulo
2 – 1 HT: 0-1
Grêmio
Corners 8–3 Cards 4–4 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
1st Dec, 2024
Grêmio
2 – 1 HT: 2-0
São Paulo
Corners 10–6 Cards 1–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
17th Jul, 2024
São Paulo
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
Grêmio
Corners 8–9 Cards 7–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
21st Oct, 2023
São Paulo
3 – 0 HT: 1-0
Grêmio
Corners 6–3 Cards 1–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
4th Jun, 2023
Grêmio
2 – 1 HT: 2-1
São Paulo
Corners 6–8 Cards 2–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
2nd Dec, 2021
Grêmio
3 – 0 HT: 1-0
São Paulo
Corners 6–0 Cards 3–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
15th Aug, 2021
São Paulo
2 – 1 HT: 1-1
Grêmio
Corners 6–2 Cards 3–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
14th Feb, 2021
Grêmio
1 – 2 HT: 1-0
São Paulo
Corners 5–2 Cards 7–4 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
31st Dec, 2020
São Paulo
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Grêmio
Corners 10–3 Cards 4–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
24th Dec, 2020
Grêmio
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
São Paulo
Corners 2–4 Cards 3–5 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Grêmio vs São Paulo across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

Grêmio 3.3
Draw 3.08
São Paulo 2.3

Half Time Result

Grêmio 4.33
Draw 1.9
São Paulo 3.18

Double Chance

Grêmio or Draw 1.57
Grêmio or São Paulo 1.35
Draw or São Paulo 1.33

Both Teams to Score

Yes 2.11
No 1.77

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.52
Over 2.5 2.56
Over 3.5 4.96
Under 1.5 2.7
Under 2.5 1.55
Under 3.5 1.19

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.54
Over 1.5 3.4

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.31
Over 9.5 1.54
Over 10.5 2.18
Over 11.5 2.33

Grêmio Goals

Over 0.5 1.55
Over 1.5 3.65

São Paulo Goals

Over 0.5 1.37
Over 1.5 2.77

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Breiðablik / Augn U19 vs FH / ÍH U19 20:30 BST | U19 League, Iceland Breiðablik / Augn U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · FH / ÍH U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.3
    91% combined
  • Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju U21 17:00 BST | Esiliiga A, Estonia Tartu Welco have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 home matches this season · Nõmme Kalju U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.22
    90% combined
  • SønderjyskE U19 vs Nordsjaelland U19 15:00 BST | U19 League, Denmark SønderjyskE U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/12 home matches this season · Nordsjaelland U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/12 away matches this season · Odds: 1.28
    79% combined
  • Kyzyl-Zhar vs Zhetysu 12:00 BST | Premier League, Kazakhstan Kyzyl-Zhar have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · Zhetysu have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/6 away matches this season · Odds: 2.2
    75% combined
Acca odds (approx) 4.47
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Grêmio vs São Paulo Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Grêmio vs São Paulo?

Under 2.5 Goals — Grêmio have stayed under 3 goals in 80% of home games, São Paulo in 60% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

Which team is likely to win, Grêmio or São Paulo?

Grêmio hold a clear form advantage — they've won 60% of home games in Serie A this season, while São Paulo have won only 10% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Grêmio and São Paulo?

Mixed — Grêmio have seen BTTS in 30% of home games, São Paulo in 50% of away games. The stats don't strongly point either way for this Serie A fixture.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Grêmio and São Paulo?

Uncertain — Grêmio have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 20% of home games, São Paulo in 40% of away games in Serie A. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Grêmio or São Paulo?

Grêmio have the stronger scoring record — 2+ goals in 10% of home games compared to São Paulo's 0% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Grêmio and São Paulo?

Yes — both Grêmio (80% Over 8.5 at home) and São Paulo (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches in Serie A. Plenty of set-piece opportunities expected.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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Over 2.5 Goals

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Home Win

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Over 1.5 Goals

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10 Teams to Win Today

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Match Stats

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"Great site for betting stats! I use it mostly for checking both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, and it’s been really helpful. The first half stats also give me a great edge in making my decisions."

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Scott T. (Manchester, UK)

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"The stats on this site are spot on. I’ve been using the home win, away win and over 2.5 goals data for my bets, and it’s been super helpful. It’s great to have all the key stats in one place, from goals to corners. The fact that it’s free is just the icing on the cake!"

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