Football Value Bets: Free Tips & Stats for Today's Matches

Find today's best football value bets, fixtures where the bookmaker's odds are higher than the underlying stats suggest they should be. A value bet exists when the statistical probability of an outcome is greater than the implied probability from the odds. We identify value across eight markets: home wins, draws, away wins, BTTS, Over 2.5, Under 2.5, Over 3.5 and Under 3.5 Goals, using real home and away form data from the current season. We refresh it every 5 minutes across 100+ leagues.

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Updates every 5 minutes

Home Win Value Bets

59
KO Match Competition Best Odds Bookmaker Model Odds Value %
06:00
Belconnen United W vs Majura W
Australia Capital Territory NPL Women 1.05 WilliamHill 1.01 3.96%
08:00
Perth RedStar W vs Sorrento W
Australia Western Australia NPL Women 1.10 WilliamHill 1.09 0.92%
Tue 30th, 09:30
Logan Lightning U23 vs Redlands United U23
Australia Queensland PL Youth 1.30 Kambi Group 1.1 18.18%
15:00
KÍ vs 07 Vestur
Faroe Islands Meistaradeildin 1.12 Betfair Exchange 1.11 0.9%
19:30
Santa Maria U20 vs Ceilândia U20
Brazil Brasiliense U20 1.50 Bet365 1.15 30.43%
23:00
Brooklyn City W vs Force New York W
United States WPSL 1.28 Bet365 1.21 5.79%
Tue 30th, 16:00
Rīgas FS vs FC Daugavpils
Latvia Virsliga 1.31 Betano 1.22 7.38%
08:00
Perth RedStar W vs Sorrento W
Australia Western Australia NPL Women 1.33 Bet365 1.3 2.31%
12:00
Sligo Rovers U20 vs Athlone Town U20
Republic of Ireland U20 National League 1.34 1xBet 1.31 2.29%
22:30
Universidad Chile vs Unión San Felipe
Chile Chilean Cup 1.36 Betano 1.31 3.82%
Tue 30th, 10:30
Robina City U23 vs Capalaba U23
Australia Queensland PL Youth 1.67 Kambi Group 1.33 25.56%
12:00
Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng W vs Changchun Dazhong Zhiye W
China Super League Women 1.40 WilliamHill 1.35 3.7%
11:00
Strømsgodset II vs Skjervøy
Norway 3. Division - Group 5 1.79 Betfair Exchange 1.35 32.59%
14:00
PK-37 vs ToU
Finland Kolmonen - Eastern Group 2.05 1xBet 1.38 48.55%
Mon 29th, 00:00
Cavalry vs Supra du Québec
Canada Premier League 1.42 Betano 1.38 2.9%
19:00
Alianza Lima vs Alianza Atlético
Peru Copa de La Liga 4.90 Betfair Exchange 1.39 252.52%
19:00
Argentino Rosario vs Union Arroyo Seco
Argentina Copa Santa Fe 1.67 1xBet 1.48 12.84%
13:45
Ferroviario Beira vs Ferroviário Nampula
Mozambique Mocambola 1.71 Kambi Group 1.48 15.54%
Wed 1st, 00:00
Ambassadors Ohio vs Buffalo Stallions
United States NPSL 1.52 1xBet 1.5 1.33%
09:15
APIA Leichhardt U20 vs Rockdale Ilinden U20
Australia New South Wales NPL Youth League 1.57 Kambi Group 1.52 3.29%
Tue 30th, 16:00
Rīgas FS vs FC Daugavpils
Latvia Virsliga 1.71 1xBet 1.54 11.04%
23:00
Brooklyn City W vs Force New York W
United States WPSL 1.66 Bet365 1.56 6.41%
15:00
Reynir vs Ýmir
Iceland 3. Deild 1.61 Bet365 1.6 0.63%
Tue 30th, 23:30
Caxias vs Anápolis
Brazil Serie C 1.67 Kambi Group 1.6 4.37%
19:30
Costa Brava vs San Martín Mendoza
Argentina Torneo Federal A 1.77 Kambi Group 1.61 9.94%
19:00
César Vallejo vs Carlos Mannucci
Peru Copa de La Liga 1.70 Bet365 1.61 5.59%
12:00
Sligo Rovers U20 vs Athlone Town U20
Republic of Ireland U20 National League 1.66 Bet365 1.61 3.11%
11:00
Strømsgodset II vs Skjervøy
Norway 3. Division - Group 5 2.10 Bet365 1.62 29.63%
17:15
Bo Rangers vs Diamond Stars
Sierra Leone Premier League 1.68 1xBet 1.63 3.07%
21:00
Ferroviário vs Central
Brazil Serie D 1.90 Kambi Group 1.63 16.56%
13:30
Ekhaya vs MAFCO
Malawi Super League 1.85 Bet365 1.64 12.8%
12:00
FK Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Torpedo Vladimir
Russia FNL 2 - Group 2 1.82 1xBet 1.65 10.3%
Wed 1st, 00:30
Botafogo PB vs Brusque
Brazil Serie C 2.04 Betfair Exchange 1.7 20%
12:00
Liaoning Shenbei Hefeng W vs Changchun Dazhong Zhiye W
China Super League Women 1.90 Bet365 1.71 11.11%
20:00
9 de Julio Rafaela vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy
Argentina Torneo Federal A 2.01 1xBet 1.73 16.18%
14:00
Landskrona vs Värnamo
Sweden Superettan 1.95 Betano 1.74 12.07%
14:00
PK-37 vs ToU
Finland Kolmonen - Eastern Group 2.40 Bet365 1.75 37.14%
14:00
Aymorés vs Valeriodoce
Brazil Mineiro 2 2.00 Bet365 1.76 13.64%
19:30
Santa Maria U20 vs Ceilândia U20
Brazil Brasiliense U20 1.95 Bet365 1.77 10.17%
Mon 29th, 00:00
Cavalry vs Supra du Québec
Canada Premier League 1.86 1xBet 1.8 3.33%
20:00
Edgewater Castle W vs Sioux Falls City W
United States USL W League 2.50 Bet365 1.81 38.12%
14:00
Portuguesa U20 vs Ferroviária U20
Brazil Paulista U20 2.25 Bet365 1.82 23.63%
09:00
Jecheon Citizen vs Gijang United
South Korea K4 League 2.02 Kambi Group 1.83 10.38%
19:00
Villa Mitre vs Alvarado
Argentina Torneo Federal A 2.07 1xBet 1.84 12.5%
13:30
Karonga United vs Moyale Barracks
Malawi Super League 2.17 1xBet 1.84 17.93%
13:00
Irtysh vs Kaisar
Kazakhstan Premier League 2.26 Betfair Exchange 1.84 22.83%
09:00
Dangjin Citizen vs Gangneung City
South Korea K3 League 2.68 Betfair Exchange 1.86 44.09%
15:00
Umayya vs Al Shorta
Syria Premier League 2.27 1xBet 1.87 21.39%
19:00
Santos U20 vs Corinthians U20
Brazil Paulista U20 2.05 1xBet 1.89 8.47%
12:30
Wenzhou vs Ganzhou Ruishi
China League Two 2.00 Betfair Exchange 1.91 4.71%
18:00
Olympic Safi vs CODM Meknès
Morocco Botola Pro 2.17 Kambi Group 1.91 13.61%
19:00
Sol de América vs San Martín Formosa
Argentina Torneo Federal A 2.05 Bet365 1.91 7.33%
Mon 29th, 01:00
Minnesota United II vs Tacoma Defiance
United States MLS Next Pro 1.94 Kambi Group 1.92 1.04%
Mon 29th, 13:30
Sagesse vs Al-Tadamon Sour
Lebanon Premier League 2.20 WilliamHill 1.95 12.82%
20:00
Sarmiento Resistencia vs Tucumán Central
Argentina Torneo Federal A 2.11 1xBet 1.95 8.21%
09:15
APIA Leichhardt U20 vs Rockdale Ilinden U20
Australia New South Wales NPL Youth League 2.00 Bet365 1.97 1.52%
18:00
Keflavík vs KR Reykjavík
Iceland Besta deild 4.20 Betfair Exchange 1.97 113.2%
16:00
Sotra vs Jerv
Norway 2. Division - Group 1 2.18 Betfair Exchange 2 9%
20:00
Juventude vs Ceará
Brazil Serie B 2.14 Betfair Exchange 2.01 6.47%

Draw Value Bets

0

No draw value bets found right now — check back soon.

Away Win Value Bets

50
KO Match Competition Best Odds Bookmaker Model Odds Value %
18:00
Wales U19 vs Spain U19
Europe Euro U19 1.27 1xBet 1.1 15.45%
13:00
Klepp W vs TIL 2020 W
Norway 1. Division Women 1.20 Pinnacle 1.18 1.69%
14:00
Carlos Renaux U20 vs Chapecoense-SC U20
Brazil Catarinense U20 1.83 Bet365 1.2 52.5%
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BTTS Value Bets

42
KO Match Competition Best Odds Bookmaker Model Odds Value %
18:00
Keflavík vs KR Reykjavík
Iceland Besta deild 1.37 Betfair Exchange 1.36 0.74%
05:30
Launceston City vs South East United
Australia Npl Tasmania 1.75 Betano 1.37 27.74%
13:00
Lucksta vs Gottne IF
Sweden Division 2: Norrland 1.44 Bet365 1.38 4.35%
06:00
Gungahlin Juventus vs Brindabella Blues
Australia Capital Territory 1.62 Betano 1.42 14.08%
06:00
Canberra FC vs Tuggeranong United
Australia Capital Territory 1.56 Kambi Group 1.42 9.86%
12:00
Jonsered vs Kongahälla
Sweden Division 2: Vastra Gotaland 1.50 Bet365 1.43 4.9%
16:00
Lillestrøm II vs Tromsø II
Norway 3. Division - Group 5 1.49 1xBet 1.43 4.2%
Mon 29th, 20:15
Afturelding vs Ægir
Iceland Inkasso-Deildin 1.55 Kambi Group 1.46 6.16%
15:00
Breidablik vs Víkingur Reykjavík
Iceland Iceland Cup 1.57 Betfair Exchange 1.47 6.8%
16:30
OLS vs KuPS Ak.
Finland Ykkönen 1.56 Betfair Exchange 1.48 5.41%
13:00
Skeid vs Trygg/Lade
Norway 2. Division: Group 2 1.71 Betfair Exchange 1.51 13.25%
11:00
Leevon / PPK vs Metta / LU
Latvia First Liga 1.66 Betfair Exchange 1.51 9.93%
05:45
Lions U23 vs Wolves U23
Australia Queensland NPL Youth League 1.62 1xBet 1.55 4.52%
13:00
Linero vs Karlshamn
Sweden Division 2: Sodra Gotaland 1.57 Betfair Exchange 1.55 1.29%
15:00
Nõmme Kalju vs Paide
Estonia Meistriliiga 1.74 Betfair Exchange 1.56 11.54%
11:00
Prospect United vs Bulls Academy
Australia New South Wales NPL 2 1.58 1xBet 1.56 1.28%
14:00
Follo vs Levanger
Norway 2. Division: Group 2 1.60 Betfair Exchange 1.58 1.27%
15:00
JFK Ventspils vs Valmiera
Latvia First Liga 1.71 Betfair Exchange 1.6 6.87%
19:00
Bragantino U20 vs Capivariano U20
Brazil Paulista U20 1.82 1xBet 1.6 13.75%
17:00
Levadia vs Flora
Estonia Meistriliiga 1.69 Betfair Exchange 1.61 4.97%
14:00
KäPa vs JäPS
Finland Ykkösliiga 1.69 Betfair Exchange 1.64 3.05%
Mon 29th, 18:30
HB vs Skála
Faroe Islands Meistaradeildin 1.74 Betfair Exchange 1.65 5.45%
14:00
Norrköping vs Norrby
Sweden Superettan 1.76 Betfair Exchange 1.65 6.67%
06:30
South Melbourne vs Green Gully
Australia Npl Victoria 1.83 Bet365 1.66 10.24%
14:00
Landskrona vs Värnamo
Sweden Superettan 1.68 Betfair Exchange 1.67 0.6%
Tue 30th, 18:00
Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway
World World Cup 1.80 Betfair Exchange 1.69 6.51%
13:00
Sporting Kristina vs FC Sääripotku
Finland Kolmonen - Western Group 1.83 1xBet 1.71 7.02%
Tue 30th, 16:00
VPS vs Inter Turku
Finland Finland Cup 1.79 1xBet 1.74 2.87%
17:30
Cobresal vs Antofagasta
Chile Chilean Cup 1.83 Bet365 1.77 3.39%
Tue 30th, 22:00
France vs Sweden
World World Cup 2.06 Betfair Exchange 1.78 15.73%
16:00
Banga vs Hegelmann Litauen
Lithuania A Lyga 1.91 Bet365 1.83 4.37%
Mon 29th, 00:00
Cusco FC vs Cienciano
Peru Copa de La Liga 1.87 1xBet 1.83 2.19%
Mon 29th, 13:30
Sagesse vs Al-Tadamon Sour
Lebanon Premier League 2.00 WilliamHill 1.84 8.7%
Mon 29th, 00:00
Cavalry vs Supra du Québec
Canada Premier League 2.00 Bet365 1.89 5.82%
20:00
Brujas de Salamanca vs Real San Joaquín
Chile Segunda División 2.04 Betfair Exchange 1.89 7.94%
Mon 29th, 16:45
Panevėžys vs Sūduva
Lithuania A Lyga 1.91 Bet365 1.9 0.53%
14:00
Al Ahed vs Shabab Al Sahel
Lebanon Premier League 1.98 Betfair Exchange 1.91 3.66%
15:00
Figueirense vs Guarani
Brazil Serie C 2.00 Bet365 1.93 3.63%
20:00
ABC vs Altos
Brazil Serie D 2.25 Bet365 1.95 15.38%
21:00
Nacional AM vs Araguaína
Brazil Serie D 2.38 Bet365 1.95 22.05%
19:30
Guaireña vs Deportivo Santaní
Paraguay Division Intermedia 2.10 Betano 1.95 7.69%
Tue 30th, 02:00
Netherlands vs Morocco
World World Cup 2.00 Betfair Exchange 1.98 1.01%

Over 2.5 Value Bets

67
KO Match Competition Best Odds Bookmaker Model Odds Value %
Tue 30th, 09:30
Logan Lightning U23 vs Redlands United U23
Australia Queensland PL Youth 1.32 Kambi Group 1.13 16.81%
08:00
Perth RedStar W vs Sorrento W
Australia Western Australia NPL Women 1.22 Bet365 1.13 7.96%
11:00
Strømsgodset II vs Skjervøy
Norway 3. Division - Group 5 1.32 1xBet 1.16 13.79%
19:30
Santa Maria U20 vs Ceilândia U20
Brazil Brasiliense U20 1.33 Bet365 1.18 12.71%
14:00
PK-37 vs ToU
Finland Kolmonen - Eastern Group 1.30 Bet365 1.18 10.17%
08:00
Redcliffe PCYC vs Mt Gravatt Hawks
Australia Queensland Premier League 3 Metro 1.20 1xBet 1.19 0.84%
23:30
Rubio Ñú vs Cerro Porteño W
Paraguay Campeonato Femenino 1.20 Bet365 1.19 0.84%
08:00
North Brisbane vs Ipswich Knights
Australia Queensland Premier League 3 Metro 1.28 Bet365 1.19 7.56%
15:00
Reynir vs Ýmir
Iceland 3. Deild 1.25 1xBet 1.23 1.63%
20:00
Long Island Rough Riders W vs Paisley Athletic W
United States USL W League 1.36 Bet365 1.23 10.57%
Tue 30th, 10:30
Robina City U23 vs Capalaba U23
Australia Queensland PL Youth 1.37 Kambi Group 1.24 10.48%
10:00
Burirat Academy W vs Bangkok W
Thailand Thai Women's League 1 1.25 Bet365 1.24 0.81%
06:30
Heidelberg United U23 vs Oakleigh Cannons U23
Australia Victoria NPL Youth League 1.25 Kambi Group 1.24 0.81%
13:00
Kolbotn W vs Grei W
Norway 1. Division Women 1.40 Bet365 1.27 10.24%
13:00
Lucksta vs Gottne IF
Sweden Division 2: Norrland 1.44 Bet365 1.28 12.5%
08:45
Subiaco W vs Balcatta W
Australia Western Australia NPL Women 1.40 Bet365 1.29 8.53%
13:00
HJS W vs TPS W
Finland Ykkönen Women 1.44 Bet365 1.29 11.63%
16:30
OLS vs KuPS Ak.
Finland Ykkönen 1.33 1xBet 1.29 3.1%
18:00
Wales U19 vs Spain U19
Europe Euro U19 1.44 Bet365 1.29 11.63%
08:00
Bonnyrigg White Eagles vs Granville Rage
Australia New South Wales NPL 3 1.36 Bet365 1.3 4.62%
15:00
Breidablik vs Víkingur Reykjavík
Iceland Iceland Cup 1.38 Pinnacle 1.36 1.47%
15:00
Åland United W vs HPS W
Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women 1.40 Bet365 1.38 1.45%
Mon 29th, 00:00
Orlando City II vs Columbus Crew II
United States MLS Next Pro 1.40 Bet365 1.38 1.45%
Mon 29th, 01:00
Miami AC vs Brevard Fire
United States USL League Two 1.50 Bet365 1.39 7.91%
12:00
Jonsered vs Kongahälla
Sweden Division 2: Vastra Gotaland 1.45 Betfair Exchange 1.41 2.84%
Tue 30th, 16:00
Rīgas FS vs FC Daugavpils
Latvia Virsliga 1.47 Kambi Group 1.43 2.8%
13:00
Smiltene vs Skanste
Latvia First Liga 1.50 Bet365 1.45 3.45%
11:00
Leevon / PPK vs Metta / LU
Latvia First Liga 1.55 Betfair Exchange 1.45 6.9%
14:00
Carlos Renaux U20 vs Chapecoense-SC U20
Brazil Catarinense U20 1.65 Bet365 1.48 11.49%
15:00
JFK Ventspils vs Valmiera
Latvia First Liga 1.51 Betfair Exchange 1.49 1.34%
Mon 29th, 18:30
Víkingur vs NSÍ
Faroe Islands Meistaradeildin 1.65 Betano 1.49 10.74%
Mon 29th, 03:00
Los Angeles FC 2 vs Houston Dynamo FC II
United States MLS Next Pro 1.53 Pinnacle 1.51 1.32%
Mon 29th, 00:00
Cavalry vs Supra du Québec
Canada Premier League 1.74 Betfair Exchange 1.53 13.73%
13:00
Stabæk W vs Fortuna Ålesund W
Norway Cup Women 1.62 Betfair Exchange 1.54 5.19%
15:00
EB / Streymur vs B36
Faroe Islands Meistaradeildin 1.77 Bet365 1.54 14.94%
11:00
Prospect United vs Bulls Academy
Australia New South Wales NPL 2 1.70 Bet365 1.54 10.39%
14:00
Landskrona vs Värnamo
Sweden Superettan 1.73 Betfair Exchange 1.55 11.61%
15:00
Nõmme Kalju vs Paide
Estonia Meistriliiga 1.92 Betfair Exchange 1.57 22.29%
20:00
Toronto II vs New England II
United States MLS Next Pro 1.65 Bet365 1.59 3.77%
17:00
Levadia vs Flora
Estonia Meistriliiga 1.68 Betfair Exchange 1.61 4.35%
14:00
KäPa vs JäPS
Finland Ykkösliiga 1.85 Betfair Exchange 1.61 14.91%
Mon 29th, 18:30
HB vs Skála
Faroe Islands Meistaradeildin 1.66 Betfair Exchange 1.61 3.11%
Mon 29th, 16:30
FA Šiauliai vs TransINVEST Vilnius
Lithuania A Lyga 1.65 Bet365 1.62 1.85%
20:30
Futuro vs Chimbarongo
Chile Tercera A 1.85 Bet365 1.62 14.2%
19:00
Bragantino U20 vs Capivariano U20
Brazil Paulista U20 1.75 Bet365 1.62 8.02%
19:00
Santos U20 vs Corinthians U20
Brazil Paulista U20 1.80 Bet365 1.63 10.43%
Mon 29th, 16:00
Auda vs Riga
Latvia Virsliga 1.65 1xBet 1.64 0.61%
16:00
Sotra vs Jerv
Norway 2. Division - Group 1 1.77 Betfair Exchange 1.67 5.99%
16:30
Kauno Žalgiris II vs BFA
Lithuania 1. Lyga 1.80 Betfair Exchange 1.7 5.88%
Mon 29th, 00:00
St. Louis City II vs Austin II
United States MLS Next Pro 1.80 Bet365 1.73 4.05%
Tue 30th, 16:00
VPS vs Inter Turku
Finland Finland Cup 2.03 Pinnacle 1.74 16.67%
Tue 30th, 18:00
Côte d'Ivoire vs Norway
World World Cup 1.96 Kambi Group 1.76 11.36%
07:00
Ehime W vs Yunogo Belle W
Japan Nadeshiko League 1 2.03 Betfair Exchange 1.77 14.69%
06:00
Sejong SA vs Pyeongchang United
South Korea K4 League 1.80 Bet365 1.79 0.56%
Mon 29th, 13:30
Sagesse vs Al-Tadamon Sour
Lebanon Premier League 2.34 1xBet 1.79 30.73%
09:00
Dangjin Citizen vs Gangneung City
South Korea K3 League 2.06 Betfair Exchange 1.81 13.81%
17:30
Cobresal vs Antofagasta
Chile Chilean Cup 1.98 Betfair Exchange 1.83 8.2%
09:00
Jecheon Citizen vs Gijang United
South Korea K4 League 1.85 Bet365 1.84 0.54%
Mon 29th, 16:00
FS Jelgava vs Grobiņa
Latvia Virsliga 1.92 1xBet 1.87 2.67%
18:00
Juventude U20 vs São José PA U20
Brazil Gaúcho - Estadual Junior U20 1.90 Bet365 1.88 1.06%
Mon 29th, 00:00
Cusco FC vs Cienciano
Peru Copa de La Liga 2.25 Bet365 1.89 19.05%
20:00
Unión La Calera vs Santiago Wanderers
Chile Chilean Cup 1.98 Bet365 1.9 4.21%
16:30
Isloch vs Belshina
Belarus Vysshaya Liga 1.97 Pinnacle 1.91 3.14%
13:00
Irtysh vs Kaisar
Kazakhstan Premier League 2.05 Kambi Group 1.92 6.77%
14:00
Al Ahed vs Shabab Al Sahel
Lebanon Premier League 2.03 Betfair Exchange 1.93 5.18%
14:00
City Lads W vs First Touch W
South Africa Super League Women 2.05 Bet365 1.98 3.54%
19:00
Santacruzense vs América SP
Brazil Paulista Série B 2.07 Bet365 1.98 4.55%

Under 2.5 Value Bets

51
KO Match Competition Best Odds Bookmaker Model Odds Value %
19:00
Circulo Deportivo vs Olimpo
Argentina Torneo Federal A 1.40 Kambi Group 1.37 2.19%
17:00
Sportivo Barracas vs Luján
Argentina Primera C 1.38 1xBet 1.37 0.73%
22:00
Oriental vs Colón
Uruguay Segunda Division 1.59 Betfair Exchange 1.42 11.97%
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Over 3.5 Value Bets

25
KO Match Competition Best Odds Bookmaker Model Odds Value %
08:00
Perth RedStar W vs Sorrento W
Australia Western Australia NPL Women 1.57 Bet365 1.32 18.94%
Tue 30th, 09:30
Logan Lightning U23 vs Redlands United U23
Australia Queensland PL Youth 1.84 Kambi Group 1.33 38.35%
11:00
Strømsgodset II vs Skjervøy
Norway 3. Division - Group 5 1.85 1xBet 1.4 32.14%
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Under 3.5 Value Bets

72
KO Match Competition Best Odds Bookmaker Model Odds Value %
22:00
Oriental vs Colón
Uruguay Segunda Division 1.21 Betano 1.15 5.22%
19:00
Argentino Merlo vs Comunicaciones
Argentina Primera B Metropolitana 1.17 Betfair Exchange 1.16 0.86%
12:30
Wenzhou vs Ganzhou Ruishi
China League Two 1.20 Betfair Exchange 1.16 3.45%
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Explore More Football Stats & Tips

Discover match stats based on likely outcomes for the next 3–4 days.

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Over 2.5 Goals

View all our stats for matches that have a likely outcome of over 2.5 goals.

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Both Teams to Score

View all our stats for matches that have a likely outcome of both teams to score.

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Home Win

View all our stats for matches that have a likely outcome of a home win.

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Over 1.5 Goals

View all our stats for matches that have a likely outcome of over 1.5 goals.

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10 Teams to Win Today

Discover the 10 teams most likely to win today based on previous form.

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How We Identify Football Value Bets

We analyse every fixture on this page by comparing two things: the statistical probability of an outcome based on real home and away form data, and the implied probability from the bookmaker's odds. When the stats suggest a higher chance than the odds imply, that's a value bet. For example, if a home team's data suggests a 55% chance of winning but the odds imply only 45%, there's a 10% value gap. We run this across all eight markets: home wins, draws, away wins, BTTS, Over 2.5, Under 2.5, Over 3.5 and Under 3.5 Goals, so you can find value wherever the numbers point.

What makes a strong value bet?

The best value bets combine a meaningful value gap (10%+) with a solid sample size (15+ games for both teams). A small value gap on a large sample is more reliable than a huge gap on five games. The market matters too. Goals markets like Over 2.5 and BTTS tend to produce steadier value than result markets, because scoring and conceding patterns are more predictable than match outcomes.

How to use value bets in accumulators and bet builders

Value bets work well both as singles and in accumulators. For singles, focus on the highest value gaps with the strongest sample sizes. For accumulators, pick four or five value selections across different matches. Mixing markets, like a home win value bet with an Over 2.5 value bet on a different fixture, helps balance the risk. You can also use value bets in bet builders by combining selections from the same fixture: if a match shows value on both Home Win and Over 2.5, that's a strong bet builder candidate. For curated accumulator picks, check our 10 Teams to Win Today page.

"Great site for betting stats! I use it mostly for checking both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, and it’s been really helpful. The first half stats also give me a great edge in making my decisions."

Finn B. (Leeds, UK)

"I’m really impressed with the simplicity and focus of the stats on this site. Whether I’m checking for both teams to score or first half goals, I always get what I need quickly. It’s easy to navigate, and the range of stats really helps with my bets."

Scott T. (Manchester, UK)

"The stats on this site are spot on. I’ve been using the home win, away win and over 2.5 goals data for my bets, and it’s been super helpful. It’s great to have all the key stats in one place, from goals to corners. The fact that some stats are free is just the icing on the cake!"

James T. (London, UK)

"I love how this site makes betting easier by offering stats like home win, away win, and over 2.5 goals. The first half goals and team goals data have been particularly useful for me. If you’re into football betting, this is definitely worth checking out."

David H. (Glasgow, UK)

"I’ve been betting for a while, and this site’s focus on key stats like home win, away goals over 1.5, and over 0.5 first half goals has made my bets more informed. The data is clear and easy to use, which is a big plus. I highly recommend it for anyone who bets on football!"

Luke H. (Cardiff, Wales)

Frequently Asked Questions

Below is a list of our most commonly asked questions. If you can't find a solution here, please don't hesitate to contact us via our contact page.

What is a value bet in football?

A value bet is a selection where the bookmaker's odds are higher than the actual statistical probability of the outcome. In other words, the bookmaker is offering a better price than the data suggests they should. For example, if a team has a 60% chance of winning based on their form data but the odds imply only 45%, there's a 15% value gap. Value betting is a long-term approach. Individual bets lose, but if your probability estimates are accurate, backing positive-value selections over time should leave you ahead of the bookmaker's margin.

How do you calculate value in football betting?

We calculate value by comparing two probabilities. First, the statistical probability based on real home and away form data from the current season. Second, the implied probability from the bookmaker's odds, worked out as 1 ÷ odds × 100. When the statistical probability is higher than the implied probability, the difference is the value percentage. A 10% gap means the stats rate the outcome 10 percentage points more likely than the odds imply, which is a meaningful edge worth considering.

Are value bets profitable long term?

Value betting is widely regarded as the most sustainable approach to football betting, but it comes with one big condition: it only works if your probability estimates are genuinely more accurate than the odds imply. When they are, the maths works in your favour across a large number of bets. Individual selections still lose, that's expected, and the edge comes from volume and discipline. Professional bettors and syndicates lean on value-based approaches because, done well, it's the approach most likely to show a positive return over time. Done with weak probabilities, it doesn't, so the quality of the underlying data is everything.

What is a good value percentage to look for?

A value gap of 10% or above is generally a strong signal. Gaps of 5–10% can still be worthwhile, but they need larger sample sizes to be confident the edge is real rather than noise. Anything above 15% is a strong signal, though at that level it's worth double-checking the odds haven't moved since the page last updated. The minimum value filter on this page defaults to 15%, and you can adjust it to find more or fewer selections

Can I use value bets in an accumulator?

Yes. Value bets work well in accumulators, because each leg carries positive expected value that compounds across the bet, assuming each probability is sound. The key is keeping every leg backed by strong data rather than padding the acca with weaker selections. Four or five value selections across different matches is a practical ceiling. Mixing markets across fixtures, like a home win value bet on one game and an Over 2.5 value bet on another, spreads your exposure.

What is the difference between a value bet and a tip?

A tip is a recommendation to bet on a specific outcome, based on data, intuition or anything in between. A value bet is specifically a selection where the statistical probability is higher than the odds imply. Every value bet could be called a tip, but not every tip is a value bet. The difference matters, because a tip might win without offering value, and repeating that over time won't be profitable. Value, when your probabilities are accurate, is what gives the approach an edge.

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