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Home Win Tips — Free Football Stats & Predictions
Find today's best home win predictions, backed by real home and away form data from the current season. Every fixture shows how often the home team wins at home and how often the away team loses on the road — combined into a single percentage to highlight the strongest home win picks across 100+ leagues. Updated every 2 hours. Looking for our 10 teams to win today? See today's teams to win accumulator picks on our 10 teams to win today page.
⚽ Today's Home Win Acca
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Ostrava U19 vs Mlada Boleslav U19 12:00 BST | U19 League, Czech Republic Ostrava U19 have won in 8/10 home matches this season · Mlada Boleslav U19 have lost in 7/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.3679% combined
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Locarno vs Harkingen 16:30 BST | 2. Liga Interregional - Group 4, Switzerland Locarno have won in 5/6 home matches this season · Harkingen have lost in 6/8 away matches this season · Odds: 1.579% combined
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Žilina U19 vs Ružomberok U19 10:00 BST | Youth League, Slovakia Žilina U19 have won in 8/8 home matches this season · Ružomberok U19 have lost in 4/8 away matches this season · Odds: 1.3375% combined
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Lyon Duchère vs Carnoux 17:00 BST | National 3: Group H, France Lyon Duchère have won in 7/10 home matches this season · Carnoux have lost in 8/10 away matches this season · Odds: 1.575% combined
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UCAM Murcia vs At. Malagueño 17:00 BST | Segunda Division RFEF: Group 4, Spain UCAM Murcia have won in 10/15 home matches this season · At. Malagueño have lost in 11/14 away matches this season · Odds: 1.273% combined
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Barakaldo vs Arenteiro 15:00 BST | Primera Division RFEF: Group 1, Spain Barakaldo have won in 10/15 home matches this season · Arenteiro have lost in 12/15 away matches this season · Odds: 1.6174% combined
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Atlético Baleares vs Andratx 11:00 BST | Segunda Division RFEF: Group 3, Spain Atlético Baleares have won in 10/15 home matches this season · Andratx have lost in 11/15 away matches this season · Odds: 1.2570% combined
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Hércules vs Sanluqueño 19:30 BST | Primera Division RFEF: Group 2, Spain Hércules have won in 10/15 home matches this season · Sanluqueño have lost in 11/16 away matches this season · Odds: 1.468% combined
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Sunday, 12 April
UCAM Murcia have won 10 of their last 15 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
At. Malagueño have lost 11 of their last 14 away games (79%) — an extremely poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 73% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, UCAM Murcia score 1.73 and concede 0.87 per home game. At. Malagueño score 0.93 and concede 2.21 per away game. That points to an expected 2.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.2.
Barakaldo have won 10 of their last 15 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Arenteiro have lost 12 of their last 15 away games (80%) — an extremely poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 73.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Barakaldo score 1.6 and concede 0.73 per home game. Arenteiro score 0.8 and concede 1.67 per away game. That points to an expected 2.4 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.61.
Atlético Baleares have won 10 of their last 15 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Andratx have lost 11 of their last 15 away games (73%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 70% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Atlético Baleares score 1.87 and concede 1 per home game. Andratx score 0.67 and concede 2.07 per away game. That points to an expected 2.8 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.25.
Hércules have won 10 of their last 15 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Sanluqueño have lost 11 of their last 16 away games (69%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 68% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Hércules score 1.33 and concede 0.67 per home game. Sanluqueño score 0.5 and concede 1.19 per away game. That points to an expected 1.8 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.4.
Galatasaray have won 11 of their last 14 home games (79%) — an outstanding home record.
Kocaelispor have lost 7 of their last 13 away games (54%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 66.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Galatasaray score 2.71 and concede 0.79 per home game. Kocaelispor score 0.69 and concede 1.62 per away game. That points to an expected 2.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.2.
Antoniano have won 10 of their last 15 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Yeclano have lost 10 of their last 15 away games (67%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 67% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Antoniano score 1.73 and concede 0.93 per home game. Yeclano score 0.67 and concede 1.27 per away game. That points to an expected 2.3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 2.8.
Arezzo have won 10 of their last 16 home games (63%) — a strong home record.
Livorno have lost 10 of their last 16 away games (63%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 63% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Arezzo score 1.56 and concede 0.81 per home game. Livorno score 0.69 and concede 1.63 per away game. That points to an expected 2.3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.3.
VfB Stuttgart have won 10 of their last 14 home games (71%) — a strong home record.
Hamburger SV have lost 7 of their last 13 away games (54%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 62.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, VfB Stuttgart score 1.57 and concede 1 per home game. Hamburger SV score 0.85 and concede 1.77 per away game. That points to an expected 2.6 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.38.
Olympique Lyonnais have won 9 of their last 13 home games (69%) — a strong home record.
Lorient have lost 7 of their last 14 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 59.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Olympique Lyonnais score 1.62 and concede 0.77 per home game. Lorient score 0.79 and concede 1.57 per away game. That points to an expected 2.4 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.66.
Paderborn have won 9 of their last 14 home games (64%) — a strong home record.
Magdeburg have lost 7 of their last 14 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 57% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, Paderborn score 1.93 and concede 1.36 per home game. Magdeburg score 1.64 and concede 1.71 per away game. That points to an expected 3.3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.83.
OFK Malženice have won 7 of their last 11 home games (64%) — a strong home record.
Považská Bystrica have lost 5 of their last 10 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 57% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, OFK Malženice score 1.36 and concede 0.82 per home game. Považská Bystrica score 1.4 and concede 2.2 per away game. That points to an expected 2.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 2.37.
Tapatío have won 8 of their last 13 home games (62%) — a strong home record.
Irapuato have lost 8 of their last 16 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 56% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, Tapatío score 2.23 and concede 1.23 per home game. Irapuato score 0.94 and concede 1.63 per away game. That points to an expected 3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 2.3.
Monday, 13 April
Amed SK have won 14 of their last 17 home games (82%) — an outstanding home record.
Ümraniyespor have lost 11 of their last 17 away games (65%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 73.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Amed SK score 2.47 and concede 0.65 per home game. Ümraniyespor score 0.59 and concede 1.41 per away game. That points to an expected 2.6 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.28.
Toluca have won 12 of their last 18 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Atlético San Luis have lost 8 of their last 15 away games (53%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 60% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Toluca score 2.39 and concede 1.06 per home game. Atlético San Luis score 1.6 and concede 1.8 per away game. That points to an expected 3.4 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.33.
Sarmiento have won 4 of their last 6 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Gimnasia La Plata have lost 3 of their last 6 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 58.5% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, Sarmiento score 1.17 and concede 0.67 per home game. Gimnasia La Plata score 0.83 and concede 1.33 per away game. That points to an expected 2 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 2.37.
Top 15 Upcoming Matches For Home Team to Win
This table shows the top upcoming matches with the highest likelihood of a home win. The home win probability is calculated from the home team's recent wins combined with the away team's recent losses.
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| Match | Home Win | Home Win Probability | Next Match | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante U19 vs Alboraya U19 (Spain) |
9 / 13 | 81.94% | Today | 1.22 |
| Home vs Away (Turkey) |
14 / 17 | 79.8% | In 2 days | 1.28 |
| Home vs Away (Slovakia) |
8 / 8 | 79.48% | Today | 1.33 |
| Home vs Away (Brazil) |
4 / 4 | 77.3% | Today | 1.22 |
| Home vs Away (England) |
13 / 19 | 77.11% | Today | 1.48 |
| Home vs Away (Czech Republic) |
10 / 11 | 76.83% | Today | 1.28 |
| Home vs Away (Spain) |
10 / 13 | 75.43% | Today | 1.25 |
| Home vs Away (Spain) |
15 / 15 | 75.01% | Today | 1.3 |
| Home vs Away (Spain) |
10 / 15 | 73.14% | In 1 day | 1.25 |
| Home vs Away (Belgium) |
9 / 13 | 72.5% | Today | 1.36 |
| Home vs Away (England) |
13 / 21 | 72.45% | Today | 1.2 |
| Home vs Away (Mexico) |
12 / 18 | 71.78% | In 2 days | 1.33 |
| Home vs Away (Indonesia) |
13 / 13 | 71.59% | In 1 day | 1.33 |
| Home vs Away (Costa Rica) |
12 / 18 | 71.17% | In 1 day | 1.36 |
| Home vs Away (Czech Republic) |
8 / 10 | 70.16% | Today | 1.36 |
Explore More Football Stats & Tips
Discover match stats based on likely outcomes for the next 3–4 days.
How to Use Our Home Win Stats
Home Win is one of the most straightforward football betting markets — and one of the most statistically reliable when you're backing the right sides. Here's how to get the most out of our stats page.
How is the home win probability calculated?
Every fixture on this page is ranked using two key figures — the home team's win percentage in their home games this season, and the away team's loss percentage in their away games this season. Combining these two figures gives a much more accurate picture of the likely outcome than simply looking at a league table or overall form.
For example, a home team that has won 8 of their last 10 home games paired with an away side that has lost 7 of their last 10 away games represents a very strong statistical case for a home win. That's the kind of data-driven edge this page is built to surface.
What makes a strong home win selection?
The strongest home win picks combine a high home win percentage with a high away loss percentage for the opposition. A home team winning 80% of their home games is compelling — but if the away side has also lost 70% of their away games, the statistical case becomes significantly stronger.
Also pay attention to the sample size. A home team that has won 8 from 10 home games is a more reliable indicator than one that has won 4 from 5, even though both show 80%. We display the raw numbers alongside the percentage so you can always check the sample before committing.
Should I use home win picks as singles or in an accumulator?
Both work well depending on your approach.
For singles, the stats on this page give you everything you need — home win percentage, away loss percentage, average goals scored and conceded, and the current odds. Use these to build a clear picture of the individual fixture before placing a bet.
For accumulators, home win is a natural market to combine. Picking four or five fixtures where the home team has a strong record and the away side has a weak away record gives your accumulator a solid statistical foundation. Pair with our 10 Teams to Win Today for our daily curated selections across all leagues.
Can I combine home win with other markets?
Yes — combining home win with other markets is one of the most effective accumulator strategies. A home team that is statistically likely to win AND likely to be involved in a high-scoring game gives you multiple angles of confidence in the same fixture.
Try pairing home win selections with our Over 2.5 Goals stats and BTTS stats for fixtures that score strongly across multiple markets. For a full view of all our markets in one place, head to our All Stats page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Below is a list of our most commonly asked questions. If you can't find a solution here, please don't hesitate to contact us via our contact page.
What does a Home Win mean in football betting?
A Home Win bet predicts that the home team will win the match within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It's one of the simplest and most popular football betting markets — you're backing the home side to win, regardless of the scoreline. It doesn't include extra time or penalties, so the result must be confirmed within regular time.
How is the home win probability calculated on your stats page?
Our home win probability is calculated using two figures — the home team's win percentage in their home games this season, and the away team's loss percentage in their away games this season. Combining these gives a more accurate indicator of the likely outcome than simply checking a team's overall form or league position. A strong home win record combined with a poor away record for the opposition is one of the clearest statistical signals in football betting.
What percentage should I look for when backing a home win?
As a general guide, a home win percentage of 65% or above combined with an away loss percentage of 50% or above represents a statistically solid case. For the highest-confidence selections, look for home teams winning 75%+ of their home games against sides losing 60%+ of their away games. Always check the sample size alongside the percentage — a team with 8 wins from 10 home games is more meaningful than 4 from 5.
What is home advantage and why does it matter?
Home advantage is the statistical tendency for teams to perform better at their own ground than away from home. It's driven by a combination of factors — familiar surroundings, supportive crowd, no travel fatigue, and psychological comfort. Across all levels of football, home teams win more often than away teams on average. Our stats quantify this advantage specifically for each team in the current season, rather than relying on a general assumption.
Which teams are most likely to win at home?
The strongest home win candidates are teams with a high home win percentage in the current season, combined with opponents who have a poor away record. League position alone doesn't tell the full story — some mid-table sides have exceptional home records while some higher-ranked teams are surprisingly vulnerable at their own ground. Our stats surface these patterns clearly so you can spot the opportunities that the league table hides.
Which leagues have the strongest home win trends?
Leagues with passionate home crowds, compact fixture schedules, and less travel for away sides tend to produce stronger home win rates. The English Championship, Turkish Süper Lig, Scottish Premiership and many Eastern European leagues consistently show high home win percentages. That said, team-by-team stats matter far more than league averages — always check the individual fixture data rather than backing home teams in a league because of a general trend.
Can I combine home win with other markets in an accumulator?
Yes — home win is one of the most natural markets to combine in an accumulator. Pairing a strong home win selection with Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS in the same fixture gives you multiple statistical angles of confidence. Many users also combine home win selections from this page with our 10 Teams to Win Today for a data-driven daily accumulator.
Is home win a good market for beginners?
Yes — it's one of the most intuitive markets in football betting. You're simply backing the home team to win, which is easy to understand and easy to research using our stats. The home win percentage and away loss percentage shown for each fixture give you a clear, at-a-glance picture of the statistical case without needing any prior knowledge of how to read betting data. If you're just getting started, our blog has guides to help you use football stats effectively.
Which teams must win today based on the stats?
The strongest home win candidates are fixtures where the home team wins 65%+ of their home games and the away team loses 50%+ on the road. The wider the gap between those two numbers, the stronger the statistical case. Check the combined percentage on this page — anything above 70% with a sample size of 15+ games from both sides is a solid signal. League context matters too: some competitions have much stronger home advantage than others. The fixtures at the top of our rankings combine all of these factors, making them the statistically strongest home win picks for the next few days.
How often does the home team win in football?
Across most professional football leagues, the home team wins roughly 45–47% of the time. In some leagues with intense home atmospheres — such as the Turkish Süper Lig or Greek Super League — the home win rate can push above 50%. In others, particularly in Scandinavia, the gap between home and away results is smaller. The rate also varies by team: some sides win 70%+ at home while others barely reach 30%. League-wide averages give you a baseline, but the team-specific home win percentages on this page are far more useful for identifying which fixtures are genuinely likely to see a home victory.
Do you provide Home Win football stats in other languages?
Yes. We provide our Home Win stats in Spanish, and in Brazilian Portuguese.
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