How to Find Value Bets in Football Using Stats — A Data-Driven Guide
Most bettors focus on picking winners. The best bettors focus on finding value — bets where the odds offered are higher ...
Home Win Tips — Free Football Stats & Predictions
Find today's best home win predictions, backed by real home and away form data from the current season. Every fixture shows how often the home team wins at home and how often the away team loses on the road — combined into a single percentage to highlight the strongest home win picks across 100+ leagues. Updated every 2 hours. Looking for our 10 teams to win today? See today's teams to win accumulator picks on our 10 teams to win today page.
⚽ Today's Home Win Acca
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Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford United 20:00 BST | Premier Division, Republic of Ireland Shamrock Rovers have won in 5/6 home matches this season · Waterford United have lost in 5/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.2583% combined
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Horní Ředice vs Slovan Hrádek nad Nisou 13:00 BST | 4. Liga Division C, Czech Republic Horní Ředice have won in 9/11 home matches this season · Slovan Hrádek nad Nisou have lost in 8/11 away matches this season · Odds: 1.2778% combined
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Mounties Wanderers vs Stanmore Hawks 11:00 BST | New South Wales NPL 3, Australia Mounties Wanderers have won in 6/6 home matches this season · Stanmore Hawks have lost in 3/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.2775% combined
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Cork City vs Cobh Ramblers 19:45 BST | First Division, Republic of Ireland Cork City have won in 6/6 home matches this season · Cobh Ramblers have lost in 3/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.4475% combined
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FC Bayern München vs Heidenheim 14:30 BST | Bundesliga, Germany FC Bayern München have won in 13/15 home matches this season · Heidenheim have lost in 12/15 away matches this season · Odds: 1.2284% combined
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Real Salt Lake vs Portland Timbers 21:45 BST | Major League Soccer, United States Real Salt Lake have won in 4/5 home matches this season · Portland Timbers have lost in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.580% combined
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Palmeiras vs Santos 22:30 BST | Serie A, Brazil Palmeiras have won in 6/6 home matches this season · Santos have lost in 3/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.575% combined
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Kochi United vs Osaka 06:00 BST | J2/J3 100 Year Vision League, Japan Kochi United have won in 7/7 home matches this season · Osaka have lost in 3/6 away matches this season · Odds: 2.675% combined
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Friday, 1 May
Shamrock Rovers have won 5 of their last 6 home games (83%) — an outstanding home record.
Waterford United have lost 5 of their last 6 away games (83%) — an extremely poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 83% of their games have featured a home win — one of the standout picks of the day.
On average, Shamrock Rovers score 1.83 and concede 0.67 per home game. Waterford United score 1 and concede 3 per away game. That points to an expected 3.3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.25.
Horní Ředice have won 9 of their last 11 home games (82%) — an outstanding home record.
Slovan Hrádek nad Nisou have lost 8 of their last 11 away games (73%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 77.5% of their games have featured a home win — one of the standout picks of the day.
On average, Horní Ředice score 2.91 and concede 1.18 per home game. Slovan Hrádek nad Nisou score 0.27 and concede 1.91 per away game. That points to an expected 3.1 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.27.
Mounties Wanderers have won 6 of their last 6 home games (100%) — an outstanding home record.
Stanmore Hawks have lost 3 of their last 6 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 75% of their games have featured a home win — one of the standout picks of the day.
On average, Mounties Wanderers score 3.83 and concede 0.67 per home game. Stanmore Hawks score 2 and concede 1.83 per away game. That points to an expected 4.2 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.27.
Cork City have won 6 of their last 6 home games (100%) — an outstanding home record.
Cobh Ramblers have lost 3 of their last 6 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 75% of their games have featured a home win — one of the standout picks of the day.
On average, Cork City score 2.33 and concede 0.83 per home game. Cobh Ramblers score 1 and concede 1.67 per away game. That points to an expected 2.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.44.
Trenčín II have won 9 of their last 12 home games (75%) — an outstanding home record.
Rača have lost 8 of their last 12 away games (67%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 71% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Trenčín II score 2.92 and concede 0.75 per home game. Rača score 0.92 and concede 1.92 per away game. That points to an expected 3.3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.53.
Arka Gdynia II have won 8 of their last 13 home games (62%) — a strong home record.
Pomezania Malbork have lost 10 of their last 13 away games (77%) — an extremely poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 69.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Arka Gdynia II score 2.46 and concede 1.62 per home game. Pomezania Malbork score 0.92 and concede 3 per away game. That points to an expected 4 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.22.
Blacktown Spartans have won 6 of their last 7 home games (86%) — an outstanding home record.
Macarthur Rams have lost 3 of their last 6 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 68% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Blacktown Spartans score 2.86 and concede 1 per home game. Macarthur Rams score 0.67 and concede 1 per away game. That points to an expected 2.8 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.53.
Athlone Town have won 4 of their last 6 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Kerry have lost 4 of their last 6 away games (67%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 67% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Athlone Town score 1.67 and concede 1 per home game. Kerry score 1.17 and concede 2 per away game. That points to an expected 2.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 2.3.
Casric Stars have won 8 of their last 13 home games (62%) — a strong home record.
Baroka have lost 9 of their last 13 away games (69%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 65.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Casric Stars score 1.62 and concede 0.62 per home game. Baroka score 0.46 and concede 1.77 per away game. That points to an expected 2.2 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.3.
Rajasthan United have won 4 of their last 6 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Dempo have lost 3 of their last 5 away games (60%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 63.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Rajasthan United score 1.5 and concede 0.83 per home game. Dempo score 0.8 and concede 1.8 per away game. That points to an expected 2.5 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.75.
Brno U19 have won 7 of their last 11 home games (64%) — a strong home record.
Karvina U19 have lost 7 of their last 11 away games (64%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 64% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Brno U19 score 2 and concede 0.82 per home game. Karvina U19 score 1.45 and concede 1.82 per away game. That points to an expected 3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 2.05.
Hà Nội have won 7 of their last 10 home games (70%) — a strong home record.
SHB Đà Nẵng have lost 5 of their last 10 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 60% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Hà Nội score 2.2 and concede 0.7 per home game. SHB Đà Nẵng score 1 and concede 1.8 per away game. That points to an expected 2.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.45.
Würzburger Kickers have won 10 of their last 15 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Wacker Burghausen have lost 8 of their last 15 away games (53%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 60% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Würzburger Kickers score 2.2 and concede 0.87 per home game. Wacker Burghausen score 0.87 and concede 1.53 per away game. That points to an expected 2.7 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.55.
Star Starachowice have won 10 of their last 14 home games (71%) — a strong home record.
Naprzód Jędrzejów have lost 7 of their last 14 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 60.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Star Starachowice score 2.07 and concede 0.93 per home game. Naprzód Jędrzejów score 1.29 and concede 1.64 per away game. That points to an expected 3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.61.
Celta de Vigo II have won 10 of their last 17 home games (59%) — a moderate home record.
Osasuna II have lost 10 of their last 17 away games (59%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 59% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, Celta de Vigo II score 1.82 and concede 1.06 per home game. Osasuna II score 0.47 and concede 1.06 per away game. That points to an expected 2.2 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.73.
Wexford Youths have won 4 of their last 6 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Finn Harps have lost 3 of their last 6 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 58.5% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, Wexford Youths score 1.67 and concede 1.33 per home game. Finn Harps score 1 and concede 1.33 per away game. That points to an expected 2.7 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.73.
Saturday, 2 May
FC Bayern München have won 13 of their last 15 home games (87%) — an outstanding home record.
Heidenheim have lost 12 of their last 15 away games (80%) — an extremely poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 83.5% of their games have featured a home win — one of the standout picks of the day.
On average, FC Bayern München score 4 and concede 1 per home game. Heidenheim score 0.8 and concede 2.07 per away game. That points to an expected 3.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.22.
Real Salt Lake have won 4 of their last 5 home games (80%) — an outstanding home record.
Portland Timbers have lost 4 of their last 5 away games (80%) — an extremely poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 80% of their games have featured a home win — one of the standout picks of the day.
On average, Real Salt Lake score 2.2 and concede 1.4 per home game. Portland Timbers score 1.2 and concede 2.2 per away game. That points to an expected 3.5 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.5.
Palmeiras have won 6 of their last 6 home games (100%) — an outstanding home record.
Santos have lost 3 of their last 6 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 75% of their games have featured a home win — one of the standout picks of the day.
On average, Palmeiras score 2.17 and concede 0.67 per home game. Santos score 1.33 and concede 2.17 per away game. That points to an expected 3.2 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.5.
Kochi United have won 7 of their last 7 home games (100%) — an outstanding home record.
Osaka have lost 3 of their last 6 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 75% of their games have featured a home win — one of the standout picks of the day.
On average, Kochi United score 2.29 and concede 0.71 per home game. Osaka score 0.17 and concede 0.67 per away game. That points to an expected 1.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 2.6.
Vaduz have won 15 of their last 16 home games (94%) — an outstanding home record.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have lost 8 of their last 16 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 72% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Vaduz score 2.56 and concede 1.06 per home game. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score 1.19 and concede 1.44 per away game. That points to an expected 3.1 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.8.
Schalke 04 have won 11 of their last 15 home games (73%) — a strong home record.
Fortuna Düsseldorf have lost 10 of their last 15 away games (67%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 70% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Schalke 04 score 1.8 and concede 0.93 per home game. Fortuna Düsseldorf score 0.73 and concede 1.53 per away game. That points to an expected 2.5 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.55.
Hakoah Sydney U20 have won 4 of their last 5 home games (80%) — an outstanding home record.
Bankstown Berries U20 have lost 4 of their last 7 away games (57%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 68.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Hakoah Sydney U20 score 2.8 and concede 1.2 per home game. Bankstown Berries U20 score 1.43 and concede 3.57 per away game. That points to an expected 4.5 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.29.
Villarreal have won 13 of their last 16 home games (81%) — an outstanding home record.
Levante have lost 9 of their last 16 away games (56%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 68.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Villarreal score 2.25 and concede 0.88 per home game. Levante score 1 and concede 1.5 per away game. That points to an expected 2.8 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.7.
Vllaznia Shkodër have won 13 of their last 16 home games (81%) — an outstanding home record.
Bylis Ballsh have lost 9 of their last 16 away games (56%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 68.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Vllaznia Shkodër score 1.63 and concede 0.5 per home game. Bylis Ballsh score 0.75 and concede 1.75 per away game. That points to an expected 2.3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.65.
NWS Spirit U20 have won 4 of their last 6 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Manly United U20 have lost 5 of their last 7 away games (71%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 69% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, NWS Spirit U20 score 2.17 and concede 1.5 per home game. Manly United U20 score 1.86 and concede 1.86 per away game. That points to an expected 3.7 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 2.4.
Biel-Bienne have won 10 of their last 14 home games (71%) — a strong home record.
Lugano II have lost 9 of their last 14 away games (64%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 67.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Biel-Bienne score 2.71 and concede 1.36 per home game. Lugano II score 1.57 and concede 2.86 per away game. That points to an expected 4.3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.7.
Porto have won 12 of their last 15 home games (80%) — an outstanding home record.
Alverca have lost 8 of their last 15 away games (53%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 66.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Porto score 2.07 and concede 0.4 per home game. Alverca score 1.13 and concede 1.8 per away game. That points to an expected 2.7 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.2.
Paris Saint Germain have won 12 of their last 15 home games (80%) — an outstanding home record.
Lorient have lost 8 of their last 15 away games (53%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 66.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Paris Saint Germain score 2.53 and concede 0.67 per home game. Lorient score 0.73 and concede 1.6 per away game. That points to an expected 2.8 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.3.
Opava have won 8 of their last 12 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Hanácká have lost 8 of their last 12 away games (67%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 67% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Opava score 2.58 and concede 1.17 per home game. Hanácká score 0.92 and concede 1.92 per away game. That points to an expected 3.3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.55.
Arsenal have won 13 of their last 17 home games (76%) — an outstanding home record.
Fulham have lost 9 of their last 17 away games (53%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 64.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Arsenal score 2.18 and concede 0.65 per home game. Fulham score 0.94 and concede 1.59 per away game. That points to an expected 2.7 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.44.
Bankstown City Lions have won 5 of their last 7 home games (71%) — a strong home record.
Inter Lions have lost 4 of their last 7 away games (57%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 64% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Bankstown City Lions score 2.14 and concede 1.57 per home game. Inter Lions score 0.57 and concede 1.71 per away game. That points to an expected 3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.4.
Verl have won 10 of their last 17 home games (59%) — a moderate home record.
Havelse have lost 11 of their last 17 away games (65%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 62% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Verl score 2.53 and concede 1.06 per home game. Havelse score 1.47 and concede 2.35 per away game. That points to an expected 3.7 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.25.
FA 2000 have won 9 of their last 12 home games (75%) — an outstanding home record.
Næsby have lost 6 of their last 12 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 62.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, FA 2000 score 2 and concede 0.67 per home game. Næsby score 1.42 and concede 1.83 per away game. That points to an expected 3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.8.
Northern Tigers have won 5 of their last 7 home games (71%) — a strong home record.
Bulls Academy have lost 3 of their last 6 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 60.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Northern Tigers score 1.71 and concede 0.71 per home game. Bulls Academy score 1.67 and concede 1.33 per away game. That points to an expected 2.7 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.83.
SD Eibar have won 13 of their last 19 home games (68%) — a strong home record.
Málaga have lost 9 of their last 18 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 59% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, SD Eibar score 1.74 and concede 0.68 per home game. Málaga score 1.28 and concede 1.39 per away game. That points to an expected 2.5 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 2.05.
St. George Saints have won 3 of their last 5 home games (60%) — a strong home record.
Western Sydney W. II have lost 4 of their last 7 away games (57%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 58.5% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, St. George Saints score 1.4 and concede 1 per home game. Western Sydney W. II score 1.71 and concede 1.71 per away game. That points to an expected 2.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.7.
Bodrum FK have won 11 of their last 18 home games (61%) — a strong home record.
Sarıyer SK have lost 10 of their last 18 away games (56%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 58.5% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, Bodrum FK score 2.28 and concede 0.83 per home game. Sarıyer SK score 0.83 and concede 1.56 per away game. That points to an expected 2.8 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.67.
Notts County have won 13 of their last 22 home games (59%) — a moderate home record.
Bristol Rovers have lost 12 of their last 22 away games (55%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 57% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, Notts County score 2 and concede 1.09 per home game. Bristol Rovers score 1.09 and concede 1.64 per away game. That points to an expected 2.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.62.
Sunday, 3 May
Manchester City W have won 10 of their last 10 home games (100%) — an outstanding home record.
Liverpool W have lost 7 of their last 10 away games (70%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 85% of their games have featured a home win — one of the standout picks of the day.
On average, Manchester City W score 3.7 and concede 0.8 per home game. Liverpool W score 0.8 and concede 1.8 per away game. That points to an expected 3.6 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.22.
River Plate have won 5 of their last 7 home games (71%) — a strong home record.
Atlético Tucumán have lost 7 of their last 7 away games (100%) — an extremely poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 85.5% of their games have featured a home win — one of the standout picks of the day.
On average, River Plate score 2 and concede 1 per home game. Atlético Tucumán score 0.86 and concede 2 per away game. That points to an expected 2.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.38.
Gimnasia Jujuy have won 5 of their last 5 home games (100%) — an outstanding home record.
Deportivo Maipú have lost 3 of their last 5 away games (60%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 80% of their games have featured a home win — one of the standout picks of the day.
On average, Gimnasia Jujuy score 2.6 and concede 0.6 per home game. Deportivo Maipú score 1 and concede 1.8 per away game. That points to an expected 3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.85.
Athletico PR have won 6 of their last 7 home games (86%) — an outstanding home record.
Grêmio have lost 5 of their last 7 away games (71%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 78.5% of their games have featured a home win — one of the standout picks of the day.
On average, Athletico PR score 2.14 and concede 0.71 per home game. Grêmio score 0.57 and concede 1.57 per away game. That points to an expected 2.5 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.85.
Barcelona Guayaquil have won 4 of their last 5 home games (80%) — an outstanding home record.
Manta have lost 4 of their last 6 away games (67%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 73.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Barcelona Guayaquil score 1.4 and concede 0.6 per home game. Manta score 0.33 and concede 1.17 per away game. That points to an expected 1.8 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.36.
Racing Santander have won 12 of their last 18 home games (67%) — a strong home record.
Huesca have lost 14 of their last 18 away games (78%) — an extremely poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 72.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Racing Santander score 2.39 and concede 1.39 per home game. Huesca score 0.83 and concede 1.89 per away game. That points to an expected 3.3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.48.
Eldense have won 13 of their last 17 home games (76%) — an outstanding home record.
Marbella have lost 11 of their last 17 away games (65%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 70.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Eldense score 2 and concede 0.82 per home game. Marbella score 0.82 and concede 1.76 per away game. That points to an expected 2.7 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.4.
Deportes Tolima have won 7 of their last 9 home games (78%) — an outstanding home record.
Deportivo Cali have lost 5 of their last 8 away games (63%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 70.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Deportes Tolima score 2 and concede 0.67 per home game. Deportivo Cali score 0.88 and concede 1.13 per away game. That points to an expected 2.3 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 2.25.
Chicago Fire have won 4 of their last 5 home games (80%) — an outstanding home record.
Cincinnati have lost 3 of their last 5 away games (60%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 70% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Chicago Fire score 2.2 and concede 0.4 per home game. Cincinnati score 1.6 and concede 3.2 per away game. That points to an expected 3.7 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.7.
América de Cali have won 5 of their last 8 home games (63%) — a strong home record.
Deportivo Pereira have lost 6 of their last 9 away games (67%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 65% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, América de Cali score 1.75 and concede 0.38 per home game. Deportivo Pereira score 0.67 and concede 2 per away game. That points to an expected 2.4 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.33.
Flamengo have won 4 of their last 5 home games (80%) — an outstanding home record.
Vasco da Gama have lost 3 of their last 6 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 65% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Flamengo score 2.2 and concede 0.4 per home game. Vasco da Gama score 1.17 and concede 1.67 per away game. That points to an expected 2.7 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.48.
Austria Lustenau have won 8 of their last 13 home games (62%) — a strong home record.
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz have lost 9 of their last 13 away games (69%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 65.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Austria Lustenau score 1.62 and concede 0.85 per home game. Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz score 1.38 and concede 2.54 per away game. That points to an expected 3.2 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.42.
Houston Dynamo have won 3 of their last 5 home games (60%) — a strong home record.
Colorado Rapids have lost 4 of their last 6 away games (67%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 63.5% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Houston Dynamo score 1.2 and concede 1.2 per home game. Colorado Rapids score 1.33 and concede 2 per away game. That points to an expected 2.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.8.
Racing de Córdoba have won 3 of their last 5 home games (60%) — a strong home record.
Deportivo Madryn have lost 3 of their last 5 away games (60%) — a poor away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 60% of their games have featured a home win — a strong case for this bet.
On average, Racing de Córdoba score 1.2 and concede 0.6 per home game. Deportivo Madryn score 0.8 and concede 1 per away game. That points to an expected 1.8 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 2.25.
Juventus have won 10 of their last 17 home games (59%) — a moderate home record.
Hellas Verona have lost 10 of their last 17 away games (59%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 59% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, Juventus score 2 and concede 0.76 per home game. Hellas Verona score 0.65 and concede 1.82 per away game. That points to an expected 2.6 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.22.
Hajduk Split have won 10 of their last 16 home games (63%) — a strong home record.
Varaždin have lost 8 of their last 16 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 56.5% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, Hajduk Split score 1.5 and concede 0.88 per home game. Varaždin score 1.13 and concede 1.38 per away game. That points to an expected 2.4 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.48.
Katowice have won 9 of their last 15 home games (60%) — a strong home record.
Nieciecza have lost 8 of their last 15 away games (53%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 56.5% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, Katowice score 1.6 and concede 1.13 per home game. Nieciecza score 1.2 and concede 1.8 per away game. That points to an expected 2.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.65.
Yverdon Sport have won 10 of their last 16 home games (63%) — a strong home record.
Étoile Carouge have lost 8 of their last 16 away games (50%) — a moderate away record.
Combining both sides' recent records, 56.5% of their games have featured a home win.
On average, Yverdon Sport score 1.94 and concede 1.13 per home game. Étoile Carouge score 1.38 and concede 1.38 per away game. That points to an expected 2.9 total goals across this match.
Current odds: 1.75.
Top 15 Upcoming Matches For Home Team to Win
This table shows the top upcoming matches with the highest likelihood of a home win. The home win probability is calculated from the home team's recent wins combined with the away team's recent losses.
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| Match | Home Win | Home Win Probability | Next Match | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München vs Heidenheim (Germany) |
13 / 15 | 82.74% | In 1 day | 1.22 |
| Home vs Away (Germany) |
10 / 17 | 79.84% | In 1 day | 1.25 |
| Home vs Away (Poland) |
10 / 13 | 77.55% | Today | 1.25 |
| Home vs Away (Vietnam) |
7 / 10 | 76.81% | Today | 1.45 |
| Home vs Away (Australia) |
4 / 5 | 74.61% | Today | 1.36 |
| Home vs Away (Germany) |
12 / 15 | 74.55% | In 1 day | 1.33 |
| Home vs Away (Peru) |
5 / 6 | 74.53% | In 1 day | 1.67 |
| Home vs Away (Italy) |
10 / 17 | 74.46% | In 2 days | 1.22 |
| Home vs Away (Australia) |
4 / 5 | 73.92% | In 1 day | 1.29 |
| Home vs Away (Poland) |
8 / 13 | 73.92% | Today | 1.22 |
| Home vs Away (England) |
10 / 10 | 73.72% | In 2 days | 1.22 |
| Home vs Away (Colombia) |
5 / 8 | 72.85% | In 2 days | 1.33 |
| Home vs Away (Scotland) |
12 / 17 | 72.84% | In 1 day | 1.38 |
| Home vs Away (El Salvador) |
18 / 22 | 72% | Today | 1.48 |
| Home vs Away (Czech Republic) |
9 / 11 | 71.78% | Today | 1.27 |
Explore More Football Stats & Tips
Discover match stats based on likely outcomes for the next 3–4 days.
How to Use Our Home Win Stats
Home Win is one of the most straightforward football betting markets — and one of the most statistically reliable when you're backing the right sides. Here's how to get the most out of our stats page.
How is the home win probability calculated?
Every fixture on this page is ranked using two key figures — the home team's win percentage in their home games this season, and the away team's loss percentage in their away games this season. Combining these two figures gives a much more accurate picture of the likely outcome than simply looking at a league table or overall form.
For example, a home team that has won 8 of their last 10 home games paired with an away side that has lost 7 of their last 10 away games represents a very strong statistical case for a home win. That's the kind of data-driven edge this page is built to surface.
What makes a strong home win selection?
The strongest home win picks combine a high home win percentage with a high away loss percentage for the opposition. A home team winning 80% of their home games is compelling — but if the away side has also lost 70% of their away games, the statistical case becomes significantly stronger.
Also pay attention to the sample size. A home team that has won 8 from 10 home games is a more reliable indicator than one that has won 4 from 5, even though both show 80%. We display the raw numbers alongside the percentage so you can always check the sample before committing.
Should I use home win picks as singles or in an accumulator?
Both work well depending on your approach.
For singles, the stats on this page give you everything you need — home win percentage, away loss percentage, average goals scored and conceded, and the current odds. Use these to build a clear picture of the individual fixture before placing a bet.
For accumulators, home win is a natural market to combine. Picking four or five fixtures where the home team has a strong record and the away side has a weak away record gives your accumulator a solid statistical foundation. Pair with our 10 Teams to Win Today for our daily curated selections across all leagues.
Can I combine home win with other markets?
Yes — combining home win with other markets is one of the most effective accumulator strategies. A home team that is statistically likely to win AND likely to be involved in a high-scoring game gives you multiple angles of confidence in the same fixture.
Try pairing home win selections with our Over 2.5 Goals stats and BTTS stats for fixtures that score strongly across multiple markets. For a full view of all our markets in one place, head to our All Stats page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Below is a list of our most commonly asked questions. If you can't find a solution here, please don't hesitate to contact us via our contact page.
What does a Home Win mean in football betting?
A Home Win bet predicts that the home team will win the match within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. It's one of the simplest and most popular football betting markets — you're backing the home side to win, regardless of the scoreline. It doesn't include extra time or penalties, so the result must be confirmed within regular time.
How is the home win probability calculated on your stats page?
Our home win probability is calculated using two figures — the home team's win percentage in their home games this season, and the away team's loss percentage in their away games this season. Combining these gives a more accurate indicator of the likely outcome than simply checking a team's overall form or league position. A strong home win record combined with a poor away record for the opposition is one of the clearest statistical signals in football betting.
What percentage should I look for when backing a home win?
As a general guide, a home win percentage of 65% or above combined with an away loss percentage of 50% or above represents a statistically solid case. For the highest-confidence selections, look for home teams winning 75%+ of their home games against sides losing 60%+ of their away games. Always check the sample size alongside the percentage — a team with 8 wins from 10 home games is more meaningful than 4 from 5.
What is home advantage and why does it matter?
Home advantage is the statistical tendency for teams to perform better at their own ground than away from home. It's driven by a combination of factors — familiar surroundings, supportive crowd, no travel fatigue, and psychological comfort. Across all levels of football, home teams win more often than away teams on average. Our stats quantify this advantage specifically for each team in the current season, rather than relying on a general assumption.
Which teams are most likely to win at home?
The strongest home win candidates are teams with a high home win percentage in the current season, combined with opponents who have a poor away record. League position alone doesn't tell the full story — some mid-table sides have exceptional home records while some higher-ranked teams are surprisingly vulnerable at their own ground. Our stats surface these patterns clearly so you can spot the opportunities that the league table hides.
Which leagues have the strongest home win trends?
Leagues with passionate home crowds, compact fixture schedules, and less travel for away sides tend to produce stronger home win rates. The English Championship, Turkish Süper Lig, Scottish Premiership and many Eastern European leagues consistently show high home win percentages. That said, team-by-team stats matter far more than league averages — always check the individual fixture data rather than backing home teams in a league because of a general trend.
Can I combine home win with other markets in an accumulator?
Yes — home win is one of the most natural markets to combine in an accumulator. Pairing a strong home win selection with Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS in the same fixture gives you multiple statistical angles of confidence. Many users also combine home win selections from this page with our 10 Teams to Win Today for a data-driven daily accumulator.
Is home win a good market for beginners?
Yes — it's one of the most intuitive markets in football betting. You're simply backing the home team to win, which is easy to understand and easy to research using our stats. The home win percentage and away loss percentage shown for each fixture give you a clear, at-a-glance picture of the statistical case without needing any prior knowledge of how to read betting data. If you're just getting started, our blog has guides to help you use football stats effectively.
Which teams must win today based on the stats?
The strongest home win candidates are fixtures where the home team wins 65%+ of their home games and the away team loses 50%+ on the road. The wider the gap between those two numbers, the stronger the statistical case. Check the combined percentage on this page — anything above 70% with a sample size of 15+ games from both sides is a solid signal. League context matters too: some competitions have much stronger home advantage than others. The fixtures at the top of our rankings combine all of these factors, making them the statistically strongest home win picks for the next few days.
How often does the home team win in football?
Across most professional football leagues, the home team wins roughly 45–47% of the time. In some leagues with intense home atmospheres — such as the Turkish Süper Lig or Greek Super League — the home win rate can push above 50%. In others, particularly in Scandinavia, the gap between home and away results is smaller. The rate also varies by team: some sides win 70%+ at home while others barely reach 30%. League-wide averages give you a baseline, but the team-specific home win percentages on this page are far more useful for identifying which fixtures are genuinely likely to see a home victory.
Do you provide Home Win football stats in other languages?
Yes. We provide our Home Win stats in Spanish, and in Brazilian Portuguese.
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