Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Football Stats

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico
🕒 Sunday 15th March, 01:00 GMT

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Morelia sit 2nd in the table after 24 games, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per home match this season. Tepatitlán de Morelos are 1st after 25 games, averaging 0.7 scored and 1 conceded on the road. Morelia have the stronger home record this season (7/10, 70%) against a Tepatitlán de Morelos side who've won 1/10 away (10%).

Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches this season. Morelia have seen 3+ goals in only 40% of home fixtures; Tepatitlán de Morelos in 20% away. Morelia average 1.6 scored and 0.5 conceded at home, Tepatitlán de Morelos 0.7 and 1 on the road — the numbers point toward a tight game.

Both sides have solid defensive records in context. Morelia have seen BTTS in only 30% of home games (3/10); Tepatitlán de Morelos in 40% away (4/10). At least one clean sheet looks likely.

Both teams see 9+ corners in the majority of their games — Morelia at 70% at home (7/10), Tepatitlán de Morelos at 70% away (7/10). Over 8.5 Corners is well supported by the data.

Our Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals — Morelia have stayed under 3 goals in 60% of home games, Tepatitlán de Morelos in 80% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

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League Table

The full Liga de Expansión MX table for the 2025/2026 season, with Morelia (2nd) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (1st) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Liga de Expansión MX 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Jaiba Brava 41 21 12 8 54:39 +15 75
2 Cancún 34 17 10 7 55:32 +23 61
3 Tepatitlán de Morelos A 39 15 15 9 52:34 +18 60
4 Atlante 32 15 9 8 59:31 +28 54
5 Morelia H 34 14 9 11 44:39 +5 51
6 Mineros de Zacatecas 34 12 13 9 53:51 +2 49
7 Irapuato 34 12 12 10 54:48 +6 48
8 CA La Paz 30 9 12 9 48:46 +2 39
9 Tapatío 30 10 6 14 49:44 +5 36
10 Universidad Guadalajara 30 9 8 13 36:46 -10 35
11 Venados 28 9 7 12 54:55 -1 34
12 Tlaxcala 28 8 10 10 30:44 -14 34
13 Alebrijes 28 7 8 13 36:54 -18 29
14 Correcaminos UAT 28 5 7 16 30:62 -32 22
15 Dorados 28 4 6 18 25:54 -29 18

Team Form

Morelia have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 70% of their home matches compared to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 10% away. The hosts hold a significant form advantage heading into this fixture.

Morelia (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 7 (70%) 1 (10%)
Drawn 2 (20%) 6 (60%)
Lost 1 (10%) 3 (30%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Morelia (30% BTTS at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (40% BTTS away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches this season. A clean sheet for one side looks the more likely outcome.

Morelia (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 3 (30%) 4 (40%)

Match Goals

Morelia have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Tepatitlán de Morelos in 20% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Over Goals

Morelia (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 8 (80%) 7 (70%)
Over 1.5 Goals 6 (60%) 5 (50%)
Over 2.5 Goals 4 (40%) 2 (20%)
Over 3.5 Goals 2 (20%) 2 (20%)

Under Goals

Morelia (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 2 (20%) 3 (30%)
Under 1.5 Goals 4 (40%) 5 (50%)
Under 2.5 Goals 6 (60%) 8 (80%)
Under 3.5 Goals 8 (80%) 8 (80%)

Team Goals

Morelia have scored 2+ goals in 30% of home games this season, Tepatitlán de Morelos in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Morelia (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 7 (70%) 5 (50%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 6 (60%) 2 (20%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 3 (30%) 0 (0%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Morelia (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 4 (40%) 6 (60%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 1 (10%) 3 (30%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 1 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goal Totals

Morelia (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 16 (1.6 avg) 7 (0.7 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 5 (0.5 avg) 10 (1 avg)

Match Corners

Both Morelia (70% Over 8.5 at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches. Expect plenty of set-piece opportunities from both sides.

Morelia (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 8 (80%) 10 (100%)
Over 8.5 Corners 7 (70%) 7 (70%)
Over 9.5 Corners 6 (60%) 6 (60%)
Over 10.5 Corners 5 (50%) 4 (40%)
Over 11.5 Corners 3 (30%) 2 (20%)
Over 12.5 Corners 2 (20%) 1 (10%)

Team Corners

Morelia have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 40% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 0% of home matches.

Tepatitlán de Morelos have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of away matches.

Corners Won

Morelia (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 8 (80%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 6 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 3 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 2 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 3 (30%) 1 (10%)

Corners Conceded

Morelia (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 4 (40%) 4 (40%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 3 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 1 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

Morelia 2.67
Draw 3.15
Tepatitlán de Morelos 2.8

Half Time Result

Morelia 3.25
Draw 2.2
Tepatitlán de Morelos 3.41

Double Chance

Morelia or Draw 1.44
Morelia or Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.33
Draw or Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.44

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.69
No 2.03

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.3
Over 2.5 2.01
Over 3.5 3.39
Under 1.5 3.47
Under 2.5 1.83
Under 3.5 1.27

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.4
Over 1.5 2.99

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.16
Over 9.5 1.38
Over 10.5 1.84
Over 11.5 2.16

Morelia Goals

Over 0.5 1.27
Over 1.5 2.51

Tepatitlán de Morelos Goals

Over 0.5 1.28
Over 1.5 2.61

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Breiðablik / Augn U19 vs FH / ÍH U19 20:30 BST | U19 League, Iceland Breiðablik / Augn U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · FH / ÍH U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.3
    91% combined
  • Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju U21 17:00 BST | Esiliiga A, Estonia Tartu Welco have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 home matches this season · Nõmme Kalju U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.22
    90% combined
  • SønderjyskE U19 vs Nordsjaelland U19 15:00 BST | U19 League, Denmark SønderjyskE U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/12 home matches this season · Nordsjaelland U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/12 away matches this season · Odds: 1.28
    79% combined
  • Kyzyl-Zhar vs Zhetysu 12:00 BST | Premier League, Kazakhstan Kyzyl-Zhar have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · Zhetysu have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/6 away matches this season · Odds: 2.2
    75% combined
Acca odds (approx) 4.47
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Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Under 2.5 Goals — Morelia have stayed under 3 goals in 60% of home games, Tepatitlán de Morelos in 80% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

Which team is likely to win, Morelia or Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Morelia hold a clear form advantage — they've won 70% of home games in Liga de Expansión MX this season, while Tepatitlán de Morelos have won only 10% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Morelia and Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Unlikely — Morelia (30% BTTS at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (40% away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches in Liga de Expansión MX. A clean sheet for one side looks the more probable outcome.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Morelia and Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Uncertain — Morelia have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Tepatitlán de Morelos in 20% of away games in Liga de Expansión MX. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Morelia or Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Morelia have the stronger scoring record — 2+ goals in 30% of home games compared to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 0% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Morelia and Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Yes — both Morelia (70% Over 8.5 at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches in Liga de Expansión MX. Plenty of set-piece opportunities expected.

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