Serie A · Brazil 🕒 Thursday 6th November, 00:30 GMT

São Paulo vs Flamengo Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

São Paulo Home · 8th 6W 3D 1L last 10 home
VS
Flamengo Away · 2nd 5W 3D 2L last 10 away
Win Probability
São Paulo 31% Draw 28% Flamengo 41%
⭐ Our Prediction Under 2.5 Goals See why ↓

São Paulo vs Flamengo Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Medium confidence

São Paulo have stayed under 3 goals in 80% of home games, Flamengo in 60% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

What the model says
31% São Paulo win 28% Draw 41% Flamengo win 48% BTTS 42% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
79% Under 3.5 Goals 68% Over 1.5 Goals

São Paulo sit 8th in the table after 28 games, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per home match this season. Flamengo are 2nd after 27 games, averaging 1.5 scored and 0.9 conceded on the road. São Paulo have the stronger home record this season (6/10, 60%) against a Flamengo side who've won 5/10 away (50%).

Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches this season. São Paulo have seen 3+ goals in only 20% of home fixtures; Flamengo in 40% away. São Paulo average 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded at home, Flamengo 1.5 and 0.9 on the road. The numbers point toward a tight game.

Both sides have solid defensive records in context. São Paulo have seen BTTS in only 40% of home games (4/10); Flamengo in 40% away (4/10). At least one clean sheet looks likely.

São Paulo regularly generate high corner counts at home (10+ corners in 80% of fixtures, 8/10). Flamengo are lower on the road (50%). The home side's attacking style tends to produce set-piece volume regardless of the opponent.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

Where São Paulo (8th) and Flamengo (2nd) sit in the Serie A table for the 2025 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Flamengo A 38 23 10 5 78:27 +51 79
8 São Paulo H 38 14 9 15 43:47 -4 51
View the full Serie A 2025 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Flamengo A 38 23 10 5 78:27 +51 79
2 Palmeiras 38 23 7 8 66:33 +33 76
3 Cruzeiro 38 19 13 6 55:31 +24 70
4 Mirassol 38 18 13 7 63:39 +24 67
5 Fluminense 38 19 7 12 50:39 +11 64
6 Botafogo 38 17 12 9 58:38 +20 63
7 Bahia 38 17 9 12 50:46 +4 60
8 São Paulo H 38 14 9 15 43:47 -4 51
9 Grêmio 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
10 Atlético Mineiro 38 12 12 14 43:44 -1 48
11 Bragantino 38 14 6 18 45:57 -12 48
12 Santos 38 12 11 15 45:50 -5 47
13 Corinthians 38 12 11 15 42:47 -5 47
14 Vasco da Gama 38 13 6 19 55:60 -5 45
15 Vitória 38 11 12 15 35:52 -17 45
16 Internacional 38 11 11 16 44:57 -13 44
17 Ceará 38 11 10 17 34:40 -6 43
18 Fortaleza 38 11 10 17 43:58 -15 43
19 Juventude 38 9 8 21 35:69 -34 35
20 Sport Recife 38 2 11 25 28:75 -47 17

Team Form

São Paulo hold a clear edge in home form this season (60% wins), while Flamengo have been less consistent on the road (50%). Home advantage could be decisive here.

H São Paulo: last 10 home A Flamengo: last 10 away
Won
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Drawn
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Lost
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

São Paulo (40% BTTS at home) and Flamengo (40% BTTS away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches this season. A clean sheet for one side looks the more likely outcome.

H São Paulo: last 10 home A Flamengo: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Scored Themselves
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Conceded
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 48% · BTTS No 52%

Match Goals

São Paulo have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 20% of home games, Flamengo in 40% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is below.

H São Paulo: last 10 home A Flamengo: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
10/10 (100%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
9/10 (90%)

Team Goals

São Paulo have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, Flamengo in 20% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

São Paulo 1.6 scored · 0.6 conceded per home game Flamengo 1.5 scored · 0.9 conceded per away game
H São Paulo: last 10 home A Flamengo: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
5/10 (50%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: São Paulo 16 scored / 6 conceded at home · Flamengo 15 scored / 9 conceded away

Match Corners

Both São Paulo (90% Over 8.5 at home) and Flamengo (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches. Expect plenty of set-piece opportunities from both sides.

H São Paulo: last 10 home A Flamengo: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
9/10 (90%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
8/10 (80%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
6/10 (60%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Team Corners

São Paulo win 6+ corners in 70% of home games, generating decent attacking corner opportunities, and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of home matches.

Flamengo have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 50% of away matches.

H São Paulo: last 10 home A Flamengo: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
8/10 (80%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
8/10 (80%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
8/10 (80%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
7/10 (70%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
5/10 (50%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
5/10 (50%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
3/10 (30%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between São Paulo and Flamengo. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

12th Jul, 2025
Flamengo
2 – 0 HT: 0-0
São Paulo
Corners 5–1 Cards 2–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19th Jan, 2025
São Paulo
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Flamengo
Corners 7–8 Cards 1–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
4th Aug, 2024
São Paulo
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Flamengo
Corners 8–3 Cards 1–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
18th Apr, 2024
Flamengo
2 – 1 HT: 1-0
São Paulo
Corners 9–1 Cards 1–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
7th Dec, 2023
São Paulo
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
Flamengo
Corners 4–9 Cards 0–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
24th Sep, 2023
São Paulo
1 – 1 HT: 1-1
Flamengo
Corners 2–4 Cards 6–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
17th Sep, 2023
Flamengo
0 – 1 HT: 0-1
São Paulo
Corners 3–4 Cards 2–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
13th Aug, 2023
Flamengo
1 – 1 HT: 0-1
São Paulo
Corners 8–2 Cards 2–6 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
15th Sep, 2022
Flamengo
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
São Paulo
Corners 7–6 Cards 1–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
25th Aug, 2022
São Paulo
1 – 3 HT: 0-1
Flamengo
Corners 17–2 Cards 0–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for São Paulo vs Flamengo across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Value São Paulo 5.3 Model: 31%
Draw 3.3 Model: 28%
Flamengo 1.95 Model: 41%

Both Teams to Score

Value Yes 2.34 Model: 48%
No 1.71 Model: 52%

Total Goals

Value Over 1.5 1.58 Model: 68%
Value Over 2.5 2.76 Model: 42%
Value Over 3.5 5.7 Model: 21%
Under 1.5 2.68 Model: 32%
Under 2.5 1.55 Model: 58%
Under 3.5 1.2 Model: 79%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.48 Model: 73%
Over 1.5 3.3

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.29 Model: 48%
Over 9.5 1.52 Model: 36%
Over 10.5 2.16 Model: 27%
Over 11.5 2.37 Model: 19%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Value São Paulo 4.75 Model: 25%
Draw 2.03 Model: 49%
Flamengo 2.87 Model: 26%

Double Chance

São Paulo or Draw 1.7 Model: 59%
São Paulo or Flamengo 1.32 Model: 72%
Draw or Flamengo 1.22 Model: 69%

São Paulo Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.79 Model: 63%
Value Over 1.5 4.33 Model: 28%

Flamengo Goals

Over 0.5 1.27 Model: 70%
Over 1.5 2.54 Model: 36%

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • GIF Sundsvall vs Öster 18:00 BST | Superettan, Sweden GIF Sundsvall have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/6 home matches this season · Öster have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.72
    90% combined
  • Ranheim II vs Kvik Trondheim 18:00 BST | 3. Division - Group 2, Norway Ranheim II have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 home matches this season · Kvik Trondheim have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.2
    90% combined
  • Staal Jørpeland vs Odd II 17:00 BST | 3. Division - Group 4, Norway Staal Jørpeland have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 home matches this season · Odd II have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.25
    80% combined
  • Vänersborgs IF vs Herrestads 18:30 BST | Division 2: Norra Gotaland, Sweden Vänersborgs IF have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 home matches this season · Herrestads have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.44
    80% combined
Acca odds (approx) 3.72
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São Paulo vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for São Paulo vs Flamengo?

Under 2.5 Goals: São Paulo have stayed under 3 goals in 80% of home games, Flamengo in 60% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

Which team is likely to win, São Paulo or Flamengo?

São Paulo have a slight form edge at home (60% wins) over Flamengo on the road (50% wins) in Serie A. Home advantage could be the deciding factor.

Will both teams score in the match between São Paulo and Flamengo?

Unlikely. São Paulo (40% BTTS at home) and Flamengo (40% away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches in Serie A. A clean sheet for one side looks the more probable outcome.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between São Paulo and Flamengo?

Uncertain. São Paulo have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 20% of home games, Flamengo in 40% of away games in Serie A. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: São Paulo or Flamengo?

Flamengo have the stronger away scoring record. 2+ goals in 20% of away games compared to São Paulo's 10% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between São Paulo and Flamengo?

Yes. Both São Paulo (90% Over 8.5 at home) and Flamengo (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches in Serie A. Plenty of set-piece opportunities expected.

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