Tapatío vs Morelia Football Stats

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico
🕒 Sunday 22nd March, 23:00 GMT

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

Tapatío sit 6th in the table after 21 games, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per home match this season. Morelia are 3rd after 25 games, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.3 conceded on the road. Tapatío have the stronger home record this season (6/10, 60%) against a Morelia side who've won 2/10 away (20%).

Tapatío have been involved in high-scoring home games this season — Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 80% of their home fixtures (8/10). Morelia are lower on the road (40%, 4/10), averaging 0.9 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home.

Tapatío frequently see both teams score at home (80%, 8/10). Morelia are lower on the road (50%, 5/10) — they've scored in 70% of away games this season, which is the key variable.

Corner data is available but trends are mixed — Tapatío see 9+ corners in 20% of home games, Morelia in 40% away. No strong edge in this market for this fixture.

Our Prediction: Over 1.5 Goals — Tapatío see 2+ goals in 100% of home games, Morelia in 80% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

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See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

The full Liga de Expansión MX table for the 2025/2026 season, with Tapatío (6th) and Morelia (3rd) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Liga de Expansión MX 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Jaiba Brava 41 21 12 8 54:39 +15 75
2 Cancún 34 17 10 7 55:32 +23 61
3 Tepatitlán de Morelos 39 15 15 9 52:34 +18 60
4 Atlante 32 15 9 8 59:31 +28 54
5 Morelia A 34 14 9 11 44:39 +5 51
6 Mineros de Zacatecas 34 12 13 9 53:51 +2 49
7 Irapuato 34 12 12 10 54:48 +6 48
8 CA La Paz 30 9 12 9 48:46 +2 39
9 Tapatío H 30 10 6 14 49:44 +5 36
10 Universidad Guadalajara 30 9 8 13 36:46 -10 35
11 Venados 28 9 7 12 54:55 -1 34
12 Tlaxcala 28 8 10 10 30:44 -14 34
13 Alebrijes 28 7 8 13 36:54 -18 29
14 Correcaminos UAT 28 5 7 16 30:62 -32 22
15 Dorados 28 4 6 18 25:54 -29 18

Team Form

Tapatío hold a clear edge in home form this season (60% wins), while Morelia have been less consistent on the road (20%). Home advantage could be decisive here.

Tapatío (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 6 (60%) 2 (20%)
Drawn 1 (10%) 3 (30%)
Lost 3 (30%) 5 (50%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Tapatío frequently see both teams score at home (80%), while Morelia are less consistent on the road (50%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Tapatío (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 8 (80%) 5 (50%)

Match Goals

Tapatío frequently feature in high-scoring home matches (Over 2.5 in 80%), while Morelia are lower on the road (40%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

Over Goals

Tapatío (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 10 (100%) 10 (100%)
Over 1.5 Goals 10 (100%) 8 (80%)
Over 2.5 Goals 8 (80%) 4 (40%)
Over 3.5 Goals 4 (40%) 0 (0%)

Under Goals

Tapatío (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals 0 (0%) 2 (20%)
Under 2.5 Goals 2 (20%) 6 (60%)
Under 3.5 Goals 6 (60%) 10 (100%)

Team Goals

Tapatío have scored 2+ goals in 40% of home games this season, Morelia in 10% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Tapatío (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 10 (100%) 7 (70%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 7 (70%) 1 (10%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 4 (40%) 1 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 2 (20%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Tapatío (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 8 (80%) 8 (80%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 4 (40%) 4 (40%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 1 (10%) 1 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goal Totals

Tapatío (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 23 (2.3 avg) 9 (0.9 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 13 (1.3 avg) 13 (1.3 avg)

Match Corners

Tapatío have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 40% of home games, Morelia in 40% of away games. The full corners breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Tapatío (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 6 (60%) 4 (40%)
Over 8.5 Corners 4 (40%) 4 (40%)
Over 9.5 Corners 2 (20%) 4 (40%)
Over 10.5 Corners 2 (20%) 4 (40%)
Over 11.5 Corners 1 (10%) 3 (30%)
Over 12.5 Corners 0 (0%) 3 (30%)

Team Corners

Tapatío have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of home matches.

Morelia have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 0% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 30% of away matches.

Corners Won

Tapatío (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 2 (20%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 2 (20%) 0 (0%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 0 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 0 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Tapatío (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 4 (40%) 5 (50%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 4 (40%) 4 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 2 (20%) 3 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 3 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 3 (30%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Tapatío and Morelia. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

12 Oct 2025
Morelia
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Tapatío
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
18 Jan 2025
Tapatío
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
02 Aug 2024
Morelia
1 – 4 HT: 0-1
Tapatío
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
17 Feb 2024
Tapatío
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
17 Sep 2023
Morelia
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Tapatío
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
21 May 2023
Tapatío
2 – 2 HT: 0-1
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
18 May 2023
Morelia
1 – 2 HT: 0-2
Tapatío
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
10 Feb 2023
Morelia
2 – 0 HT: 1-0
Tapatío
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
14 Jul 2022
Tapatío
2 – 0 HT: 0-0
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
04 Feb 2022
Morelia
1 – 2 HT: 1-1
Tapatío
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Tapatío vs Morelia across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

Tapatío 2.32
Draw 3.7
Morelia 2.88

Half Time Result

Tapatío 2.8
Draw 2.12
Morelia 3.58

Double Chance

Tapatío or Draw 1.3
Tapatío or Morelia 1.22
Draw or Morelia 1.57

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.66
No 2.36

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.28
Over 2.5 1.7
Over 3.5 3.12
Under 1.5 3.96
Under 2.5 2.1
Under 3.5 1.46

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.29
Over 1.5 2.54

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.16
Over 9.5 1.38
Over 10.5 1.81
Over 11.5 2.16

Tapatío Goals

Over 0.5 1.16
Over 1.5 2

Morelia Goals

Over 0.5 1.27
Over 1.5 2.54

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Breiðablik / Augn U19 vs FH / ÍH U19 20:30 BST | U19 League, Iceland Breiðablik / Augn U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · FH / ÍH U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.3
    91% combined
  • Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju U21 17:00 BST | Esiliiga A, Estonia Tartu Welco have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 home matches this season · Nõmme Kalju U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.22
    90% combined
  • SønderjyskE U19 vs Nordsjaelland U19 15:00 BST | U19 League, Denmark SønderjyskE U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/12 home matches this season · Nordsjaelland U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/12 away matches this season · Odds: 1.28
    79% combined
  • Kyzyl-Zhar vs Zhetysu 12:00 BST | Premier League, Kazakhstan Kyzyl-Zhar have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · Zhetysu have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/6 away matches this season · Odds: 2.2
    75% combined
Acca odds (approx) 4.47
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Tapatío vs Morelia Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Tapatío vs Morelia?

Over 1.5 Goals — Tapatío see 2+ goals in 100% of home games, Morelia in 80% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

Which team is likely to win, Tapatío or Morelia?

Tapatío hold a clear form advantage — they've won 60% of home games in Liga de Expansión MX this season, while Morelia have won only 20% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Tapatío and Morelia?

Possibly — Tapatío frequently see both teams score at home (80%), while Morelia are lower on the road (50%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Tapatío and Morelia?

Possibly — Tapatío frequently feature in high-scoring home games (Over 2.5 in 80%), while Morelia are lower on the road (40%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Tapatío or Morelia?

Tapatío have the stronger scoring record — 2+ goals in 40% of home games compared to Morelia's 10% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Tapatío and Morelia?

Tapatío have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 40% of home games, Morelia in 40% of away games in Liga de Expansión MX. The corner stats don't point strongly in either direction.

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Over 2.5 Goals

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Home Win

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Over 1.5 Goals

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