Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Alebrijes — Free Prediction & Stats

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico
🕒 Saturday 4th April, 03:00 BST

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos hold a clear edge at home this season (6/10, 60%), while Alebrijes are less consistent on the road (3/10, 30%). The match may be competitive, but home advantage is meaningful here — see our Home Win stats.

Goal trends are mixed for this fixture (Tepatitlán de Morelos 40% Over 2.5 at home, Alebrijes 60% away). Browse our Over 2.5 Goals and Under 2.5 Goals stats for more context.

Alebrijes regularly see both teams score in away matches (60%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (40%). The visitors' tendency to be involved in goal-heavy games supports BTTS – Yes.

Both teams regularly see 8+ corners in recent games (80% and 70%) — Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Our Prediction: Over 1.5 Goals — Tepatitlán de Morelos see 2+ goals in 70% of home games, Alebrijes in 70% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

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League Table

The full Liga de Expansión MX table for the 2025/2026 season, with Tepatitlán de Morelos (th) and Alebrijes (th) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Liga de Expansión MX 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Jaiba Brava 30 16 8 6 41:29 +12 56
2 Atlante 26 13 8 5 51:21 +30 47
3 Cancún 26 13 7 6 42:23 +19 46
4 Morelia 28 12 8 8 40:33 +7 44
5 Tepatitlán de Morelos H 29 11 10 8 39:26 +13 43
6 Irapuato 30 10 11 9 49:44 +5 41
7 Mineros de Zacatecas 26 9 10 7 42:42 0 37
8 CA La Paz 24 9 9 6 43:36 +7 36
9 Tapatío 24 9 5 10 42:35 +7 32
10 Universidad Guadalajara 26 8 7 11 31:41 -10 31
11 Tlaxcala 24 7 8 9 26:39 -13 29
12 Venados 24 7 5 12 45:50 -5 26
13 Alebrijes A 24 6 7 11 31:48 -17 25
14 Correcaminos UAT 24 5 7 12 26:51 -25 22
15 Dorados 25 2 6 17 20:50 -30 12

Team Form

Tepatitlán de Morelos hold a clear edge in home form this season (60% wins), while Alebrijes have been less consistent on the road (30%). Home advantage could be decisive here.

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Alebrijes (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 6 (60%) 3 (30%)
Drawn 1 (10%) 2 (20%)
Lost 3 (30%) 5 (50%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Alebrijes regularly see both teams score in away matches (60%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (40%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Alebrijes (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 4 (40%) 6 (60%)

Match Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Alebrijes in 60% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Over Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Alebrijes (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 10 (100%) 10 (100%)
Over 1.5 Goals 7 (70%) 7 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals 4 (40%) 6 (60%)
Over 3.5 Goals 1 (10%) 4 (40%)

Under Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Alebrijes (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals 3 (30%) 3 (30%)
Under 2.5 Goals 6 (60%) 4 (40%)
Under 3.5 Goals 9 (90%) 6 (60%)

Team Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, Alebrijes in 10% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Alebrijes (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 8 (80%) 8 (80%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 5 (50%) 3 (30%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 1 (10%) 1 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 1 (10%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Alebrijes (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 6 (60%) 8 (80%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 1 (10%) 5 (50%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 4 (40%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 2 (20%)

Goal Totals

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Alebrijes (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 15 (1.5 avg) 12 (1.2 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 7 (0.7 avg) 21 (2.1 avg)

Match Corners

Alebrijes frequently reach high corner counts away from home (70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (50%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Alebrijes (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 8 (80%) 7 (70%)
Over 8.5 Corners 5 (50%) 7 (70%)
Over 9.5 Corners 4 (40%) 4 (40%)
Over 10.5 Corners 3 (30%) 4 (40%)
Over 11.5 Corners 2 (20%) 1 (10%)
Over 12.5 Corners 1 (10%) 1 (10%)

Team Corners

Tepatitlán de Morelos have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 50% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 0% of home matches.

Alebrijes have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 30% of away matches.

Corners Won

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Alebrijes (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 8 (80%) 4 (40%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 1 (10%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 1 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 0 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 0 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Alebrijes (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 3 (30%) 4 (40%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 3 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 3 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 3 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 3 (30%)

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Al Rayyan vs Umm-Salal SC 15:30 BST Al Rayyan have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/6 home matches this season · Umm-Salal SC have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.44
    100% combined
  • Polonia Środa Wlkp W vs Czarni Sosnowiec II W 11:00 BST Polonia Środa Wlkp W have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 home matches this season · Czarni Sosnowiec II W have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.36
    91% combined
  • Alphense Boys U21 vs Spartaan'20 U21 10:30 BST Alphense Boys U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 9/10 home matches this season · Spartaan'20 U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 9/10 away matches this season · Odds: 1.25
    90% combined
  • FK Pardubice U19 vs Slovan Liberec U19 13:45 BST FK Pardubice U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/9 home matches this season · Slovan Liberec U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 9/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.33
    89% combined
Acca odds (approx) 3.26
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Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Alebrijes Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Alebrijes?

Over 1.5 Goals — Tepatitlán de Morelos see 2+ goals in 70% of home games, Alebrijes in 70% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

Which team is likely to win, Tepatitlán de Morelos or Alebrijes?

Tepatitlán de Morelos hold a clear form advantage — they've won 60% of home games in Liga de Expansión MX this season, while Alebrijes have won only 30% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Tepatitlán de Morelos and Alebrijes?

Mixed — Tepatitlán de Morelos have seen BTTS in 40% of home games, Alebrijes in 60% of away games. The stats don't strongly point either way for this Liga de Expansión MX fixture.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Tepatitlán de Morelos and Alebrijes?

Uncertain — Tepatitlán de Morelos have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Alebrijes in 60% of away games in Liga de Expansión MX. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Tepatitlán de Morelos or Alebrijes?

Alebrijes have the stronger away scoring record — 2+ goals in 10% of away games compared to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 10% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Tepatitlán de Morelos and Alebrijes?

Possibly — Alebrijes frequently reach high corner counts away (70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (50%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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