CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos — Free Prediction & Stats

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico
🕒 Saturday 11th April, 04:00 BST

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Over 8.5 Corners

CA La Paz (50% home wins) hold a slight edge over Tepatitlán de Morelos on the road (10% away wins), but the difference is minimal. View our Home Win, Away Win and Draw stats for more context.

CA La Paz consistently feature in high-scoring home matches (Over 2.5 Goals in 70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower on the road (20%). The hosts' attacking threat could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

Both teams rarely see both sides score — CA La Paz at 40% at home and Tepatitlán de Morelos at 40% away. Solid defensive records on both sides make BTTS – No a reasonable selection.

Both teams regularly see 8+ corners in recent games (100% and 90%) — Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Our Prediction: Over 8.5 Corners — CA La Paz see 9+ corners in 70% of home games, Tepatitlán de Morelos in 70% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

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League Table

The full Liga de Expansión MX table for the 2025/2026 season, with CA La Paz (th) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (th) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Liga de Expansión MX 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Jaiba Brava 31 16 9 6 42:30 +12 57
2 Morelia 29 13 8 8 42:33 +9 47
3 Cancún 27 13 8 6 44:25 +19 47
4 Atlante 27 13 8 6 52:25 +27 47
5 Tepatitlán de Morelos A 30 11 11 8 41:28 +13 44
6 Irapuato 31 10 11 10 49:46 +3 41
7 Mineros de Zacatecas 27 10 10 7 44:43 +1 40
8 CA La Paz H 25 9 10 6 44:37 +7 37
9 Tapatío 25 9 5 11 43:37 +6 32
10 Universidad Guadalajara 27 8 8 11 32:42 -10 32
11 Venados 25 8 5 12 49:51 -2 29
12 Tlaxcala 24 7 8 9 26:39 -13 29
13 Alebrijes 25 6 8 11 32:49 -17 26
14 Correcaminos UAT 25 5 7 13 27:53 -26 22
15 Dorados 26 3 6 17 22:51 -29 15

Team Form

Tepatitlán de Morelos have lost 40% of their away matches this season, while CA La Paz have been more solid at home (20% losses). The home side may find it easier to impose themselves.

CA La Paz (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 5 (50%) 1 (10%)
Drawn 3 (30%) 5 (50%)
Lost 2 (20%) 4 (40%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

CA La Paz (40% BTTS at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (40% BTTS away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches this season. A clean sheet for one side looks the more likely outcome.

CA La Paz (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 4 (40%) 4 (40%)

Match Goals

CA La Paz frequently feature in high-scoring home matches (Over 2.5 in 70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower on the road (20%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

Over Goals

CA La Paz (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 10 (100%) 8 (80%)
Over 1.5 Goals 9 (90%) 4 (40%)
Over 2.5 Goals 7 (70%) 2 (20%)
Over 3.5 Goals 5 (50%) 2 (20%)

Under Goals

CA La Paz (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 0 (0%) 2 (20%)
Under 1.5 Goals 1 (10%) 6 (60%)
Under 2.5 Goals 3 (30%) 8 (80%)
Under 3.5 Goals 5 (50%) 8 (80%)

Team Goals

CA La Paz have scored 2+ goals in 30% of home games this season, Tepatitlán de Morelos in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

CA La Paz (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 9 (90%) 5 (50%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 7 (70%) 2 (20%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 3 (30%) 0 (0%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 1 (10%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

CA La Paz (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 5 (50%) 7 (70%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 4 (40%) 2 (20%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 2 (20%) 1 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 2 (20%) 0 (0%)

Goal Totals

CA La Paz (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 20 (2 avg) 7 (0.7 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 15 (1.5 avg) 10 (1 avg)

Match Corners

Both CA La Paz (70% Over 8.5 at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches. Expect plenty of set-piece opportunities from both sides.

CA La Paz (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 10 (100%) 9 (90%)
Over 8.5 Corners 7 (70%) 7 (70%)
Over 9.5 Corners 5 (50%) 6 (60%)
Over 10.5 Corners 3 (30%) 3 (30%)
Over 11.5 Corners 3 (30%) 2 (20%)
Over 12.5 Corners 2 (20%) 1 (10%)

Team Corners

CA La Paz have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 40% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Tepatitlán de Morelos have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of away matches.

Corners Won

CA La Paz (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 7 (70%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 6 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 3 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 2 (20%) 1 (10%)

Corners Conceded

CA La Paz (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 5 (50%) 4 (40%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 3 (30%) 4 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 2 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 0 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Veszprém 2015 W vs Nagykanizsa W 13:00 BST | Nöi NB II, Hungary Veszprém 2015 W have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 home matches this season · Nagykanizsa W have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.3
    90% combined
  • Ursus Warszawa vs Talent Warszawa 10:00 BST | IV Liga: Mazowiecka, Poland Ursus Warszawa have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/8 home matches this season · Talent Warszawa have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.53
    88% combined
  • FC Praha W vs Baník Ostrava W 14:00 BST | First League Women, Czech Republic FC Praha W have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/7 home matches this season · Baník Ostrava W have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/8 away matches this season · Odds: 1.5
    87% combined
  • Albirex Niigata S vs Tampines Rovers 12:30 BST | Premier League, Singapore Albirex Niigata S have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 home matches this season · Tampines Rovers have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/7 away matches this season · Odds: 1.5
    83% combined
Acca odds (approx) 4.48
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CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Over 8.5 Corners — CA La Paz see 9+ corners in 70% of home games, Tepatitlán de Morelos in 70% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

Which team is likely to win, CA La Paz or Tepatitlán de Morelos?

CA La Paz have a slight form edge at home (50% wins) over Tepatitlán de Morelos on the road (10% wins) in Liga de Expansión MX. Home advantage could be the deciding factor.

Will both teams score in the match between CA La Paz and Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Unlikely — CA La Paz (40% BTTS at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (40% away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches in Liga de Expansión MX. A clean sheet for one side looks the more probable outcome.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between CA La Paz and Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Possibly — CA La Paz frequently feature in high-scoring home games (Over 2.5 in 70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower on the road (20%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: CA La Paz or Tepatitlán de Morelos?

CA La Paz have the stronger scoring record — 2+ goals in 30% of home games compared to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 0% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between CA La Paz and Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Yes — both CA La Paz (70% Over 8.5 at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches in Liga de Expansión MX. Plenty of set-piece opportunities expected.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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CA La Paz vs Tepatitlán de Morelos

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Tapatío vs Irapuato

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