First League · Bulgaria 🕒 Saturday 7th February, 10:30 GMT

Cherno More vs Spartak Varna Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Cherno More Home · 5th 3W 3D 4L last 10 home
VS
Spartak Varna Away · 12th 1W 3D 6L last 10 away
Win Probability
Cherno More 60% Draw 23% Spartak Varna 17%
⭐ Our Prediction Under 2.5 Goals See why ↓

Cherno More vs Spartak Varna Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Medium confidence

Cherno More have stayed under 3 goals in 60% of home games, Spartak Varna in 70% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

What the model says
60% Cherno More win 23% Draw 17% Spartak Varna win 42% BTTS 41% Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 most likely score
Also worth a look
79% Under 3.5 Goals 67% Over 1.5 Goals

Cherno More sit 5th in the table after 19 games, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per home match this season. Spartak Varna are 12th after 19 games, averaging 0.4 scored and 1.6 conceded on the road. Cherno More have won 3/10 home games (30%) this season; Spartak Varna have won 1/10 on the road (10%). There's no dominant edge either way.

Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches this season. Cherno More have seen 3+ goals in only 40% of home fixtures; Spartak Varna in 30% away. Cherno More average 0.8 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, Spartak Varna 0.4 and 1.6 on the road — the numbers point toward a tight game.

Both sides have solid defensive records in context. Cherno More have seen BTTS in only 20% of home games (2/10); Spartak Varna in 20% away (2/10). At least one clean sheet looks likely.

Corner data is available but trends are mixed — Cherno More see 9+ corners in 10% of home games, Spartak Varna in 50% away. No strong edge in this market for this fixture.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

View Today’s Tips

League Table

Where Cherno More (5th) and Spartak Varna (12th) sit in the First League table for the 2025/2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
7 Cherno More H 36 14 12 10 40:34 +6 54
12 Spartak Varna A 37 8 13 16 35:57 -22 37
View the full First League 2025/2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Levski Sofia 36 25 6 5 71:25 +46 81
2 Ludogorets 37 19 11 7 61:25 +36 68
3 CSKA 1948 Sofia 36 20 7 9 54:35 +19 67
4 CSKA Sofia 36 18 9 9 47:30 +17 63
5 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 36 14 14 8 36:37 -1 56
6 Arda 36 15 9 12 42:34 +8 54
7 Cherno More H 36 14 12 10 40:34 +6 54
8 Botev Vratsa 37 13 14 10 36:32 +4 53
9 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 37 11 14 12 51:48 +3 47
10 Slavia Sofia 37 12 10 15 42:44 -2 46
11 Botev Plovdiv 35 12 7 16 45:45 0 43
12 Spartak Varna A 37 8 13 16 35:57 -22 37
13 Septemvri Sofia 37 9 9 19 32:64 -32 36
14 Beroe 37 7 13 17 28:52 -24 34
15 Dobrudzha 1919 37 8 7 22 28:52 -24 31
16 Montana 37 4 11 22 21:55 -34 23

Team Form

Spartak Varna have lost 60% of their away matches this season, while Cherno More have been more solid at home (40% losses). The home side may find it easier to impose themselves.

H Cherno More — last 10 home A Spartak Varna — last 10 away
Won
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Drawn
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Lost
H
4/10 (40%)
A
6/10 (60%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Cherno More (20% BTTS at home) and Spartak Varna (20% BTTS away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches this season. A clean sheet for one side looks the more likely outcome.

H Cherno More — last 10 home A Spartak Varna — last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Scored Themselves
H
5/10 (50%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Conceded
H
4/10 (40%)
A
7/10 (70%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 42% · BTTS No 58%

Match Goals

Cherno More have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Spartak Varna in 30% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is below.

H Cherno More — last 10 home A Spartak Varna — last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
8/10 (80%)

Team Goals

Cherno More have scored 2+ goals in 0% of home games this season, Spartak Varna in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Cherno More 0.8 scored · 1.3 conceded per home game Spartak Varna 0.4 scored · 1.6 conceded per away game
H Cherno More — last 10 home A Spartak Varna — last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
5/10 (50%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
4/10 (40%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
4/10 (40%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Season totals: Cherno More 8 scored / 13 conceded at home · Spartak Varna 4 scored / 16 conceded away

Match Corners

Cherno More have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 20% of home games, Spartak Varna in 60% of away games. The full corners breakdown for both sides is below.

H Cherno More — last 10 home A Spartak Varna — last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Team Corners

Cherno More have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 0% of home matches.

Spartak Varna have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 30% of away matches.

H Cherno More — last 10 home A Spartak Varna — last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
0/10 (0%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Cherno More and Spartak Varna. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

16 Aug 2025
Spartak Varna
1 – 3 HT: 1-2
Cherno More
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
08 Mar 2025
Cherno More
1 – 1 HT: 1-0
Spartak Varna
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
22 Sep 2024
Spartak Varna
0 – 2 HT: 0-1
Cherno More
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
07 May 2023
Cherno More
3 – 2 HT: 1-0
Spartak Varna
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
22 Oct 2022
Spartak Varna
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Cherno More
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
23 May 2009
Spartak Varna
0 – 1 HT: 0-0
Cherno More
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
14 Nov 2008
Cherno More
5 – 0 HT: 0-0
Spartak Varna
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
10 May 2008
Cherno More
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Spartak Varna
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
01 Dec 2007
Spartak Varna
0 – 1 HT: 0-0
Cherno More
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19 May 2007
Spartak Varna
2 – 0 HT: 0-0
Cherno More
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Cherno More vs Spartak Varna across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Cherno More 1.36 Model: 60%
Value Draw 5.4 Model: 23%
Value Spartak Varna 8.5 Model: 17%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 2.34 Model: 42%
No 1.66 Model: 58%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.31 Model: 67%
Over 2.5 1.99 Model: 41%
Over 3.5 3.5 Model: 21%
Value Under 1.5 3.42 Model: 33%
Value Under 2.5 2 Model: 59%
Value Under 3.5 1.38 Model: 79%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.36 Model: 78%
Over 1.5 2.92

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.21 Model: 55%
Over 9.5 1.37 Model: 43%
Over 10.5 1.6 Model: 32%
Over 11.5 1.92 Model: 22%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Cherno More 1.95 Model: 47%
Draw 2.3 Model: 39%
Spartak Varna 7.5 Model: 14%

Double Chance

Cherno More or Draw 1.08 Model: 83%
Cherno More or Spartak Varna 1.19 Model: 77%
Value Draw or Spartak Varna 3 Model: 40%

Cherno More Goals

Over 0.5 1.08 Model: 80%
Over 1.5 1.6 Model: 47%

Spartak Varna Goals

Over 0.5 1.85 Model: 48%
Over 1.5 5.1 Model: 15%

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Phoenix vs Tammeka II 10:30 BST | Esiliiga B, Estonia Phoenix have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/8 home matches this season · Tammeka II have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.2
    90% combined
  • Linero vs Karlskrona 13:00 BST | Division 2: Sodra Gotaland, Sweden Linero have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 home matches this season · Karlskrona have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.53
    90% combined
  • Toronto II vs Connecticut United 20:00 BST | MLS Next Pro, United States Toronto II have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · Connecticut United have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/8 away matches this season · Odds: 1.6
    85% combined
  • Chicago Fire II vs Inter Miami II 21:00 BST | MLS Next Pro, United States Chicago Fire II have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · Inter Miami II have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.33
    83% combined
Acca odds (approx) 3.91
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Cherno More vs Spartak Varna Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Cherno More vs Spartak Varna?

Under 2.5 Goals — Cherno More have stayed under 3 goals in 60% of home games, Spartak Varna in 70% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

Which team is likely to win, Cherno More or Spartak Varna?

Cherno More have a slight form edge at home (30% wins) over Spartak Varna on the road (10% wins) in First League. Home advantage could be the deciding factor.

Will both teams score in the match between Cherno More and Spartak Varna?

Unlikely — Cherno More (20% BTTS at home) and Spartak Varna (20% away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches in First League. A clean sheet for one side looks the more probable outcome.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Cherno More and Spartak Varna?

Uncertain — Cherno More have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Spartak Varna in 30% of away games in First League. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Cherno More or Spartak Varna?

Spartak Varna have the stronger away scoring record — 2+ goals in 0% of away games compared to Cherno More's 0% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Cherno More and Spartak Varna?

Cherno More have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 20% of home games, Spartak Varna in 60% of away games in First League. The corner stats don't point strongly in either direction.

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