Liga Portugal · Portugal 🕒 Sunday 26th October, 15:30 GMT

Estoril vs Nacional Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Estoril Home · 16th 4W 2D 4L last 10 home
VS
Nacional Away · 11th 1W 2D 7L last 10 away
Win Probability
Estoril 34% Draw 26% Nacional 40%
⭐ Our Prediction Over 8.5 Corners See why ↓

Estoril vs Nacional Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Over 8.5 Corners

Medium confidence

Estoril see 9+ corners in 80% of home games, Nacional in 80% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

What the model says
34% Estoril win 26% Draw 40% Nacional win 53% BTTS 50% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
74% Over 1.5 Goals 73% Under 3.5 Goals

Estoril sit 16th in the table after 8 games, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per home match this season. Nacional are 11th after 8 games, averaging 0.8 scored and 1.7 conceded on the road. Estoril have won 4/10 home games (40%) this season; Nacional have won 1/10 on the road (10%). There's no dominant edge either way.

Estoril have been involved in high-scoring home games this season. Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 70% of their home fixtures (7/10). Nacional are lower on the road (50%, 5/10), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.7 conceded away from home.

Estoril frequently see both teams score at home (70%, 7/10). Nacional are lower on the road (50%, 5/10). They've scored in 60% of away games this season, which is the key variable.

Nacional are involved in high-corner games on the road (10+ corners in 80% of away fixtures, 8/10). Estoril are lower at home (50%), but the visitors' style tends to push the total up.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

Where Estoril (16th) and Nacional (11th) sit in the Liga Portugal table for the 2025/2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
10 Estoril H 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
14 Nacional A 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
View the full Liga Portugal 2025/2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Porto 34 28 4 2 66:18 +48 88
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 89:24 +65 82
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 74:25 +49 80
4 Sporting Braga 34 16 11 7 64:36 +28 59
5 Famalicão 34 15 11 8 42:29 +13 56
6 Gil Vicente 34 13 11 10 47:38 +9 50
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
8 Vitória Guimarães 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
9 Arouca 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
10 Estoril H 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
12 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
13 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
14 Nacional A 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
15 Estrela Amadora 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21

Team Form

Nacional have lost 70% of their away matches this season, while Estoril have been more solid at home (40% losses). The home side may find it easier to impose themselves.

H Estoril: last 10 home A Nacional: last 10 away
Won
H
4/10 (40%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Drawn
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Lost
H
4/10 (40%)
A
7/10 (70%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Estoril frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Nacional are less consistent on the road (50%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

H Estoril: last 10 home A Nacional: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Scored Themselves
H
8/10 (80%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Conceded
H
8/10 (80%)
A
9/10 (90%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 53% · BTTS No 47%

Match Goals

Estoril frequently feature in high-scoring home matches (Over 2.5 in 70%), while Nacional are lower on the road (50%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

H Estoril: last 10 home A Nacional: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
9/10 (90%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
9/10 (90%)

Team Goals

Estoril have scored 2+ goals in 30% of home games this season, Nacional in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Estoril 1.7 scored · 1.5 conceded per home game Nacional 0.8 scored · 1.7 conceded per away game
H Estoril: last 10 home A Nacional: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
8/10 (80%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
4/10 (40%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
2/10 (20%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
8/10 (80%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
5/10 (50%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Estoril 17 scored / 15 conceded at home · Nacional 8 scored / 17 conceded away

Match Corners

Both Estoril (80% Over 8.5 at home) and Nacional (80% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches. Expect plenty of set-piece opportunities from both sides.

H Estoril: last 10 home A Nacional: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
8/10 (80%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
8/10 (80%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)

Team Corners

Estoril have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 40% of home matches.

Nacional have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 20% of games), while conceding 6+ corners in 60% of away matches. The home side can expect some set-piece chances.

H Estoril: last 10 home A Nacional: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
4/10 (40%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
6/10 (60%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
4/10 (40%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
4/10 (40%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
3/10 (30%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Estoril and Nacional. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

15th Feb, 2025
Nacional
2 – 2 HT: 1-1
Estoril
Corners 7–3 Cards 3–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
15th Sep, 2024
Estoril
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
Nacional
Corners 3–4 Cards 2–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
25th Jul, 2021
Nacional
1 – 2 HT: 1-0
Estoril
Corners 3–10 Cards 0–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
14th Dec, 2019
Estoril
1 – 2 HT: 0-1
Nacional
Corners 6–1 Cards 3–6 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
14th Jul, 2018
Estoril
2 – 1 HT: 2-0
Nacional
Corners 4–11 Cards 2–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
9th Apr, 2017
Estoril
0 – 1 HT: 0-0
Nacional
Corners 5–6 Cards 4–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
26th Nov, 2016
Nacional
0 – 1 HT: 0-1
Estoril
Corners 6–4 Cards 1–4 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19th Jul, 2016
Nacional
2 – 1 HT:
Estoril
Corners – Cards 0–0 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
10th Apr, 2016
Nacional
4 – 1 HT: 1-0
Estoril
Corners – Cards 0–0 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
6th Dec, 2015
Estoril
1 – 1 HT: 0-0
Nacional
Corners – Cards 0–0 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Estoril vs Nacional across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Estoril 2.5 Model: 34%
Draw 3.2 Model: 26%
Value Nacional 2.9 Model: 40%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.83 Model: 53%
No 2.12 Model: 47%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.37 Model: 74%
Value Over 2.5 2.12 Model: 50%
Over 3.5 3.95 Model: 27%
Under 1.5 3.6 Model: 26%
Under 2.5 1.86 Model: 50%
Under 3.5 1.32 Model: 73%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.42 Model: 78%
Over 1.5 3.11

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.27 Model: 49%
Over 9.5 1.5 Model: 38%
Over 10.5 2.07 Model: 28%
Over 11.5 2.32 Model: 20%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Estoril 3.09 Model: 24%
Draw 2.21 Model: 43%
Value Nacional 3.78 Model: 32%

Double Chance

Estoril or Draw 1.41 Model: 60%
Estoril or Nacional 1.33 Model: 74%
Draw or Nacional 1.56 Model: 66%

Estoril Goals

Over 0.5 1.29 Model: 68%
Over 1.5 2.49 Model: 34%

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5 1.4 Model: 72%
Value Over 1.5 2.9 Model: 38%

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • GIF Sundsvall vs Öster 18:00 BST | Superettan, Sweden GIF Sundsvall have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/6 home matches this season · Öster have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.72
    90% combined
  • Ranheim II vs Kvik Trondheim 18:00 BST | 3. Division - Group 2, Norway Ranheim II have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 home matches this season · Kvik Trondheim have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.2
    90% combined
  • Staal Jørpeland vs Odd II 17:00 BST | 3. Division - Group 4, Norway Staal Jørpeland have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 home matches this season · Odd II have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.25
    80% combined
  • Vänersborgs IF vs Herrestads 18:30 BST | Division 2: Norra Gotaland, Sweden Vänersborgs IF have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 home matches this season · Herrestads have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.44
    80% combined
Acca odds (approx) 3.72
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Estoril vs Nacional Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Estoril vs Nacional?

Over 8.5 Corners: Estoril see 9+ corners in 80% of home games, Nacional in 80% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

Which team is likely to win, Estoril or Nacional?

Estoril have a slight form edge at home (40% wins) over Nacional on the road (10% wins) in Liga Portugal. Home advantage could be the deciding factor.

Will both teams score in the match between Estoril and Nacional?

Possibly. Estoril frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Nacional are lower on the road (50%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Estoril and Nacional?

Possibly. Estoril frequently feature in high-scoring home games (Over 2.5 in 70%), while Nacional are lower on the road (50%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Estoril or Nacional?

Estoril have the stronger scoring record. 2+ goals in 30% of home games compared to Nacional's 0% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Estoril and Nacional?

Yes. Both Estoril (80% Over 8.5 at home) and Nacional (80% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches in Liga Portugal. Plenty of set-piece opportunities expected.

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