Eredivisie · Netherlands 🕒 Sunday 1st February, 11:15 GMT

Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Excelsior Home · 13th 2W 3D 5L last 10 home
VS
Ajax Away · 4th 3W 5D 2L last 10 away
Win Probability
Excelsior 35% Draw 23% Ajax 42%
⭐ Our Prediction Over 1.5 Goals See why ↓

Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

Medium confidence

Excelsior see 2+ goals in 90% of home games, Ajax in 80% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

What the model says
35% Excelsior win 23% Draw 42% Ajax win 61% BTTS 61% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score

Excelsior sit 13th in the table after 17 games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per home match this season. Ajax are 4th after 18 games, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded on the road. Excelsior have won 2/10 home games (20%) this season; Ajax have won 3/10 on the road (30%). There's no dominant edge either way.

Both sides consistently see 2+ goals — Excelsior in 90% of home games, Ajax in 80% away. Three or more is less certain, but Over 1.5 Goals is well supported by the data from both sides.

Excelsior frequently see both teams score at home (60%, 6/10). Ajax are lower on the road (50%, 5/10) — they've scored in 70% of away games this season, which is the key variable.

Corner data is available but trends are mixed — Excelsior see 9+ corners in 40% of home games, Ajax in 60% away. No strong edge in this market for this fixture.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

Where Excelsior (13th) and Ajax (4th) sit in the Eredivisie table for the 2025/2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
3 Ajax A 36 15 15 6 65:42 +23 60
13 Excelsior H 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
View the full Eredivisie 2025/2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 PSV 34 27 3 4 101:45 +56 84
2 Feyenoord 34 19 8 7 70:44 +26 65
3 Ajax A 36 15 15 6 65:42 +23 60
4 NEC Nijmegen 34 16 11 7 77:53 +24 59
5 FC Twente 34 15 13 6 59:40 +19 58
6 FC Utrecht 36 16 9 11 59:45 +14 57
7 AZ 34 14 10 10 58:51 +7 52
8 SC Heerenveen 35 14 9 12 59:56 +3 51
9 FC Groningen 35 14 6 15 49:47 +2 48
10 Sparta Rotterdam 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
11 Fortuna Sittard 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
12 Go Ahead Eagles 34 8 14 12 54:53 +1 38
13 Excelsior H 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
14 Telstar 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
15 PEC Zwolle 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
16 FC Volendam 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
17 NAC Breda 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
18 Heracles Almelo 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19

Team Form

Excelsior have lost 50% of their home matches this season, while Ajax have been more resilient on the road (20% losses). The visitors may have a slight edge in consistency.

H Excelsior — last 10 home A Ajax — last 10 away
Won
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Drawn
H
3/10 (30%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Lost
H
5/10 (50%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Excelsior frequently see both teams score at home (60%), while Ajax are less consistent on the road (50%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

H Excelsior — last 10 home A Ajax — last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Scored Themselves
H
7/10 (70%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Conceded
H
9/10 (90%)
A
6/10 (60%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 61% · BTTS No 39%

Match Goals

Both sides regularly see 2+ goals in their matches (Excelsior 90% at home, Ajax 80% away), though 3+ is less consistent. Over 1.5 Goals looks the more reliable selection.

H Excelsior — last 10 home A Ajax — last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
10/10 (100%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
0/10 (0%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
7/10 (70%)

Team Goals

Excelsior have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, Ajax in 10% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Excelsior 1.4 scored · 1.5 conceded per home game Ajax 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded per away game
H Excelsior — last 10 home A Ajax — last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
7/10 (70%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
9/10 (90%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Season totals: Excelsior 14 scored / 15 conceded at home · Ajax 12 scored / 14 conceded away

Match Corners

Excelsior have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 50% of home games, Ajax in 60% of away games. The full corners breakdown for both sides is below.

H Excelsior — last 10 home A Ajax — last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)

Team Corners

Excelsior have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of home matches.

Ajax have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 50% of away matches.

H Excelsior — last 10 home A Ajax — last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
5/10 (50%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
5/10 (50%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
3/10 (30%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Excelsior and Ajax. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

22 Nov 2025
Ajax
1 – 2 HT: 0-1
Excelsior
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
24 Apr 2024
Ajax
2 – 2 HT: 1-1
Excelsior
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19 Aug 2023
Excelsior
2 – 2 HT: 1-1
Ajax
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
29 Jan 2023
Excelsior
1 – 4 HT: 1-2
Ajax
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
16 Oct 2022
Ajax
7 – 1 HT: 3-0
Excelsior
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
13 Apr 2019
Ajax
6 – 2 HT: 3-1
Excelsior
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
11 Nov 2018
Excelsior
1 – 7 HT: 0-2
Ajax
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
06 May 2018
Excelsior
1 – 2 HT: 1-0
Ajax
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
14 Dec 2017
Ajax
3 – 1 HT: 1-1
Excelsior
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19 Mar 2017
Excelsior
1 – 1 HT: 1-1
Ajax
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Excelsior vs Ajax across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Value Excelsior 4.3 Model: 35%
Draw 3.8 Model: 23%
Ajax 1.87 Model: 42%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.63 Model: 61%
No 2.52 Model: 39%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.2 Model: 82%
Over 2.5 1.58 Model: 61%
Over 3.5 2.66 Model: 39%
Under 1.5 5.6 Model: 18%
Under 2.5 2.5 Model: 39%
Under 3.5 1.57 Model: 61%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.25 Model: 86%
Over 1.5 2.41

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.34 Model: 62%
Over 9.5 1.48 Model: 51%
Over 10.5 2.27 Model: 40%
Over 11.5 2.49 Model: 30%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Value Excelsior 4.41 Model: 34%
Draw 2.55 Model: 35%
Ajax 2.38 Model: 31%

Double Chance

Value Excelsior or Draw 2 Model: 58%
Excelsior or Ajax 1.25 Model: 77%
Draw or Ajax 1.2 Model: 65%

Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5 1.33 Model: 71%
Value Over 1.5 2.84 Model: 41%

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5 1.09 Model: 75%
Over 1.5 1.63 Model: 46%

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Linero vs Karlskrona 13:00 BST | Division 2: Sodra Gotaland, Sweden Linero have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 home matches this season · Karlskrona have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.53
    90% combined
  • Phoenix vs Tammeka II 10:30 BST | Esiliiga B, Estonia Phoenix have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/8 home matches this season · Tammeka II have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.2
    90% combined
  • Toronto II vs Connecticut United 20:00 BST | MLS Next Pro, United States Toronto II have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · Connecticut United have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/8 away matches this season · Odds: 1.6
    85% combined
  • Enkoping vs Vasalund 15:00 BST | Ettan: North, Sweden Enkoping have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/6 home matches this season · Vasalund have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.44
    83% combined
Acca odds (approx) 4.23
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Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Excelsior vs Ajax?

Over 1.5 Goals — Excelsior see 2+ goals in 90% of home games, Ajax in 80% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

Which team is likely to win, Excelsior or Ajax?

Ajax hold a slight form advantage away (30% wins) over Excelsior at home (20% wins) in Eredivisie. A competitive fixture with the visitors potentially having the edge.

Will both teams score in the match between Excelsior and Ajax?

Mixed — Excelsior have seen BTTS in 60% of home games, Ajax in 50% of away games. The stats don't strongly point either way for this Eredivisie fixture.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Excelsior and Ajax?

Uncertain — Excelsior have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 60% of home games, Ajax in 50% of away games in Eredivisie. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Excelsior or Ajax?

Ajax have the stronger away scoring record — 2+ goals in 10% of away games compared to Excelsior's 10% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Excelsior and Ajax?

Excelsior have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 50% of home games, Ajax in 60% of away games in Eredivisie. The corner stats don't point strongly in either direction.

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