Morelia vs CA La Paz — Free Prediction & Stats

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico
🕒 Sunday 1st March, 01:00 GMT

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Over 8.5 Corners

Morelia hold a clear edge at home this season (6/10, 60%), while CA La Paz are less consistent on the road (2/10, 20%). The match may be competitive, but home advantage is meaningful here — see our Home Win stats.

Goal trends are mixed for this fixture (Morelia 40% Over 2.5 at home, CA La Paz 50% away). Browse our Over 2.5 Goals and Under 2.5 Goals stats for more context.

CA La Paz regularly see both teams score in away matches (60%), while Morelia are lower at home (30%). The visitors' tendency to be involved in goal-heavy games supports BTTS – Yes.

CA La Paz often produce high corner totals away (80%), while Morelia are lower at home (50%). The visitors may push the game to Over 9.5 Corners.

Our Prediction: Over 8.5 Corners — Morelia see 9+ corners in 60% of home games, CA La Paz in 90% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

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League Table

The full Liga de Expansión MX table for the 2025/2026 season, with Morelia (3rd) and CA La Paz (6th) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Liga de Expansión MX 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Jaiba Brava 33 17 10 6 45:32 +13 61
2 Cancún 29 15 8 6 49:27 +22 53
3 Atlante 29 14 8 7 56:28 +28 50
4 Morelia H 31 13 9 9 42:35 +7 48
5 Tepatitlán de Morelos 32 12 12 8 44:29 +15 48
6 Irapuato 33 12 11 10 54:48 +6 47
7 Mineros de Zacatecas 28 10 10 8 45:46 -1 40
8 CA La Paz A 27 9 11 7 46:41 +5 38
9 Tapatío 27 10 5 12 47:39 +8 35
10 Universidad Guadalajara 29 9 8 12 35:44 -9 35
11 Venados 27 9 6 12 52:53 -1 33
12 Tlaxcala 27 8 9 10 28:42 -14 33
13 Alebrijes 27 6 8 13 33:53 -20 26
14 Correcaminos UAT 26 5 7 14 28:56 -28 22
15 Dorados 27 3 6 18 22:53 -31 15

Team Form

Morelia hold a clear edge in home form this season (60% wins), while CA La Paz have been less consistent on the road (20%). Home advantage could be decisive here.

Morelia (Home Form) CA La Paz (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 6 (60%) 2 (20%)
Drawn 3 (30%) 5 (50%)
Lost 1 (10%) 3 (30%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

CA La Paz regularly see both teams score in away matches (60%), while Morelia are lower at home (30%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

Morelia (Home Form) CA La Paz (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 3 (30%) 6 (60%)

Match Goals

Morelia have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, CA La Paz in 50% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Over Goals

Morelia (Home Form) CA La Paz (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 7 (70%) 9 (90%)
Over 1.5 Goals 5 (50%) 7 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals 4 (40%) 5 (50%)
Over 3.5 Goals 2 (20%) 4 (40%)

Under Goals

Morelia (Home Form) CA La Paz (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 3 (30%) 1 (10%)
Under 1.5 Goals 5 (50%) 3 (30%)
Under 2.5 Goals 6 (60%) 5 (50%)
Under 3.5 Goals 8 (80%) 6 (60%)

Team Goals

Morelia have scored 2+ goals in 30% of home games this season, CA La Paz in 20% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Morelia (Home Form) CA La Paz (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 6 (60%) 8 (80%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 5 (50%) 4 (40%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 3 (30%) 2 (20%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Morelia (Home Form) CA La Paz (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 4 (40%) 7 (70%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 1 (10%) 4 (40%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 3 (30%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goal Totals

Morelia (Home Form) CA La Paz (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 14 (1.4 avg) 14 (1.4 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 5 (0.5 avg) 14 (1.4 avg)

Match Corners

CA La Paz frequently reach high corner counts away from home (90%), while Morelia are lower at home (60%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Morelia (Home Form) CA La Paz (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 8 (80%) 9 (90%)
Over 8.5 Corners 6 (60%) 9 (90%)
Over 9.5 Corners 5 (50%) 8 (80%)
Over 10.5 Corners 4 (40%) 5 (50%)
Over 11.5 Corners 2 (20%) 5 (50%)
Over 12.5 Corners 1 (10%) 4 (40%)

Team Corners

Morelia have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 0% of home matches.

CA La Paz have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 10% of games), while conceding 6+ corners in 60% of away matches — the home side can expect some set-piece chances.

Corners Won

Morelia (Home Form) CA La Paz (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 2 (20%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 2 (20%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 3 (30%) 1 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 3 (30%) 1 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 2 (20%) 0 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Morelia (Home Form) CA La Paz (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 4 (40%) 10 (100%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 8 (80%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 6 (60%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 4 (40%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 3 (30%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Morelia and CA La Paz. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

20 Sep 2025
CA La Paz
3 – 0 HT: 3-0
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
15 Mar 2025
Morelia
4 – 1 HT: 2-1
CA La Paz
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
28 Sep 2024
CA La Paz
0 – 1 HT: 0-0
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
10 Jan 2024
CA La Paz
1 – 1 HT: 0-0
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
11 Sep 2023
Morelia
2 – 0 HT: 1-0
CA La Paz
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
20 Jan 2023
CA La Paz
3 – 3 HT: 2-1
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
18 Sep 2022
Morelia
4 – 2 HT: 2-2
CA La Paz
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Morelia vs CA La Paz across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

Morelia 1.67
Draw 4.5
CA La Paz 5.3

Half Time Result

Morelia 2.1
Draw 2.56
CA La Paz 4.6

Double Chance

Morelia or Draw 1.15
Morelia or CA La Paz 1.22
Draw or CA La Paz 2.14

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.66
No 2.32

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.13
Over 2.5 1.59
Over 3.5 2.5
Under 1.5 5
Under 2.5 2.6
Under 3.5 1.62

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.25
Over 1.5 2.1

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.11
Over 9.5 1.3
Over 10.5 1.91
Over 11.5 1.99

Morelia Goals

Over 0.5 1.09
Over 1.5 1.48

CA La Paz Goals

Over 0.5 1.35
Over 1.5 2.75

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Manchester City U21 vs Norwich City U21 19:00 BST | Premier League 2 Division One, England Manchester City U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/9 home matches this season · Norwich City U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.22
    89% combined
  • Crewe Alexandra U21 vs Queens Park Rangers U21 13:00 BST | Professional Development League, England Crewe Alexandra U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 10/13 home matches this season · Queens Park Rangers U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/13 away matches this season · Odds: 1.3
    81% combined
  • Sheffield United U21 vs Bristol City U21 14:00 BST | Professional Development League, England Sheffield United U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/12 home matches this season · Bristol City U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/13 away matches this season · Odds: 1.28
    76% combined
  • Crystal Palace U21 vs Arsenal U21 19:00 BST | Premier League 2 Division One, England Crystal Palace U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/9 home matches this season · Arsenal U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.4
    72% combined
Acca odds (approx) 2.84
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Morelia vs CA La Paz Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Morelia vs CA La Paz?

Over 8.5 Corners — Morelia see 9+ corners in 60% of home games, CA La Paz in 90% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

Which team is likely to win, Morelia or CA La Paz?

Morelia hold a clear form advantage — they've won 60% of home games in Liga de Expansión MX this season, while CA La Paz have won only 20% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Morelia and CA La Paz?

Mixed — Morelia have seen BTTS in 30% of home games, CA La Paz in 60% of away games. The stats don't strongly point either way for this Liga de Expansión MX fixture.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Morelia and CA La Paz?

Uncertain — Morelia have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, CA La Paz in 50% of away games in Liga de Expansión MX. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Morelia or CA La Paz?

Morelia have the stronger scoring record — 2+ goals in 30% of home games compared to CA La Paz's 20% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Morelia and CA La Paz?

Possibly — CA La Paz frequently reach high corner counts away (90%), while Morelia are lower at home (60%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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Over 2.5 Goals

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Over 1.5 Goals

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10 Teams to Win Today

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Other Upcoming Fixtures

Atlante vs CA La Paz

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Saturday 18th April, 00:00 BST

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Correcaminos UAT vs Alebrijes

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Saturday 18th April, 02:00 BST

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Dorados vs Tapatío

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Saturday 18th April, 04:00 BST

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Tlaxcala vs Venados

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Sunday 19th April, 00:00 BST

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Irapuato vs Mineros de Zacatecas

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Sunday 19th April, 02:00 BST

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Universidad Guadalajara vs Cancún

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Sunday 19th April, 19:00 BST

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Jaiba Brava vs Morelia

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Monday 20th April, 00:00 BST

Match Stats

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