Morelia vs Venados — Free Prediction & Stats

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico
🕒 Sunday 15th February, 01:00 GMT

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Morelia to Win

Morelia hold a clear edge at home this season (6/10, 60%), while Venados are less consistent on the road (1/10, 10%). The match may be competitive, but home advantage is meaningful here — see our Home Win stats.

Both sides have rarely seen 3+ goals this season — Morelia at 40% at home and Venados at 40% away. The numbers lean towards Under 2.5 Goals as the likely outcome.

Both teams rarely see both sides score — Morelia at 30% at home and Venados at 40% away. Solid defensive records on both sides make BTTS – No a reasonable selection.

Both teams regularly see 8+ corners in recent games (80% and 90%) — Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Our Prediction: Morelia to Win — Morelia have won 6/10 home games this season (60%), while Venados have lost 8/10 away (80%). A strong statistical case for the home side.

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League Table

The full Liga de Expansión MX table for the 2025/2026 season, with Morelia (7th) and Venados (6th) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Liga de Expansión MX 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Jaiba Brava 33 17 10 6 45:32 +13 61
2 Cancún 29 15 8 6 49:27 +22 53
3 Atlante 29 14 8 7 56:28 +28 50
4 Morelia H 31 13 9 9 42:35 +7 48
5 Tepatitlán de Morelos 32 12 12 8 44:29 +15 48
6 Irapuato 33 12 11 10 54:48 +6 47
7 Mineros de Zacatecas 28 10 10 8 45:46 -1 40
8 CA La Paz 27 9 11 7 46:41 +5 38
9 Tapatío 27 10 5 12 47:39 +8 35
10 Universidad Guadalajara 29 9 8 12 35:44 -9 35
11 Venados A 27 9 6 12 52:53 -1 33
12 Tlaxcala 27 8 9 10 28:42 -14 33
13 Alebrijes 27 6 8 13 33:53 -20 26
14 Correcaminos UAT 26 5 7 14 28:56 -28 22
15 Dorados 27 3 6 18 22:53 -31 15

Team Form

Morelia hold a clear edge in home form this season (60% wins), while Venados have been less consistent on the road (10%). Home advantage could be decisive here.

Morelia (Home Form) Venados (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 6 (60%) 1 (10%)
Drawn 3 (30%) 1 (10%)
Lost 1 (10%) 8 (80%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Morelia (30% BTTS at home) and Venados (40% BTTS away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches this season. A clean sheet for one side looks the more likely outcome.

Morelia (Home Form) Venados (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 3 (30%) 4 (40%)

Match Goals

Morelia have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Venados in 40% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Over Goals

Morelia (Home Form) Venados (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 7 (70%) 10 (100%)
Over 1.5 Goals 5 (50%) 7 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals 4 (40%) 4 (40%)
Over 3.5 Goals 2 (20%) 2 (20%)

Under Goals

Morelia (Home Form) Venados (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 3 (30%) 0 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals 5 (50%) 3 (30%)
Under 2.5 Goals 6 (60%) 6 (60%)
Under 3.5 Goals 8 (80%) 8 (80%)

Team Goals

Morelia have scored 2+ goals in 30% of home games this season, Venados in 10% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Morelia (Home Form) Venados (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 6 (60%) 4 (40%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 5 (50%) 2 (20%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 3 (30%) 1 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 0 (0%) 1 (10%)

Goals Conceded

Morelia (Home Form) Venados (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 4 (40%) 10 (100%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 1 (10%) 6 (60%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 3 (30%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 1 (10%)

Goal Totals

Morelia (Home Form) Venados (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 14 (1.4 avg) 10 (1 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 5 (0.5 avg) 20 (2 avg)

Match Corners

Venados frequently reach high corner counts away from home (70%), while Morelia are lower at home (60%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Morelia (Home Form) Venados (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 8 (80%) 9 (90%)
Over 8.5 Corners 6 (60%) 7 (70%)
Over 9.5 Corners 5 (50%) 6 (60%)
Over 10.5 Corners 4 (40%) 2 (20%)
Over 11.5 Corners 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 12.5 Corners 1 (10%) 2 (20%)

Team Corners

Morelia have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 0% of home matches.

Venados have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 40% of away matches.

Corners Won

Morelia (Home Form) Venados (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 6 (60%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 4 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 3 (30%) 2 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 3 (30%) 1 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 2 (20%) 1 (10%)

Corners Conceded

Morelia (Home Form) Venados (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 4 (40%) 5 (50%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 5 (50%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 4 (40%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 2 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Morelia and Venados. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

05 Sep 2025
Venados
2 – 2 HT: 1-1
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
03 Mar 2025
Morelia
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Venados
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
14 Sep 2024
Venados
2 – 1 HT: 0-0
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
29 Mar 2024
Morelia
3 – 4 HT: 2-1
Venados
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
10 Nov 2023
Morelia
1 – 1 HT: 0-0
Venados
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
20 Oct 2023
Venados
2 – 1 HT: 1-1
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
27 Jan 2023
Morelia
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Venados
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
30 Jul 2022
Venados
0 – 2 HT: 0-1
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
07 Apr 2022
Morelia
2 – 2 HT: 0-1
Venados
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
16 Sep 2021
Venados
0 – 1 HT: 0-1
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Morelia vs Venados across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

Morelia 1.6
Draw 3.81
Venados 5.09

Half Time Result

Morelia 2.12
Draw 2.59
Venados 5.01

Double Chance

Morelia or Draw 1.15
Morelia or Venados 1.18
Draw or Venados 2.15

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.53
No 2.3

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.57
Over 3.5 2.36
Under 1.5 5
Under 2.5 2.43
Under 3.5 1.6

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.26
Over 1.5 2.32

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.16
Over 9.5 1.38
Over 10.5 1.83
Over 11.5 2.16

Morelia Goals

Over 0.5 1.09
Over 1.5 1.56

Venados Goals

Over 0.5 1.37
Over 1.5 3

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Manchester City U21 vs Norwich City U21 19:00 BST | Premier League 2 Division One, England Manchester City U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/9 home matches this season · Norwich City U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.22
    89% combined
  • Crewe Alexandra U21 vs Queens Park Rangers U21 13:00 BST | Professional Development League, England Crewe Alexandra U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 10/13 home matches this season · Queens Park Rangers U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/13 away matches this season · Odds: 1.3
    81% combined
  • Sheffield United U21 vs Bristol City U21 14:00 BST | Professional Development League, England Sheffield United U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/12 home matches this season · Bristol City U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/13 away matches this season · Odds: 1.28
    76% combined
  • Crystal Palace U21 vs Arsenal U21 19:00 BST | Premier League 2 Division One, England Crystal Palace U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/9 home matches this season · Arsenal U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.4
    72% combined
Acca odds (approx) 2.84
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Morelia vs Venados Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Morelia vs Venados?

Morelia to Win — they've won 6/10 (60%) of their last 10 home games, while Venados have lost 8/10 (80%) of their last 10 away matches. A strong statistical case for the home side.

Which team is likely to win, Morelia or Venados?

Morelia hold a clear form advantage — they've won 60% of home games in Liga de Expansión MX this season, while Venados have won only 10% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Morelia and Venados?

Unlikely — Morelia (30% BTTS at home) and Venados (40% away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches in Liga de Expansión MX. A clean sheet for one side looks the more probable outcome.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Morelia and Venados?

Uncertain — Morelia have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Venados in 40% of away games in Liga de Expansión MX. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Morelia or Venados?

Morelia have the stronger scoring record — 2+ goals in 30% of home games compared to Venados's 10% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Morelia and Venados?

Possibly — Venados frequently reach high corner counts away (70%), while Morelia are lower at home (60%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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All Stats

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Over 2.5 Goals

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Both Teams to Score

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Home Win

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Over 1.5 Goals

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10 Teams to Win Today

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Other Upcoming Fixtures

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📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Saturday 18th April, 00:00 BST

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Correcaminos UAT vs Alebrijes

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Saturday 18th April, 02:00 BST

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Dorados vs Tapatío

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Saturday 18th April, 04:00 BST

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Tlaxcala vs Venados

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Sunday 19th April, 00:00 BST

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Irapuato vs Mineros de Zacatecas

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Sunday 19th April, 02:00 BST

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Universidad Guadalajara vs Cancún

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Sunday 19th April, 19:00 BST

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Jaiba Brava vs Morelia

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Monday 20th April, 00:00 BST

Match Stats

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Scott T. (Manchester, UK)

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David H. (Glasgow, UK)

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Luke H. (Cardiff, Wales)

"I love the focus on stats like home goals over 1.5 and away goals over 1.5—these are the exact numbers I need before placing a bet. I’ve been able to use the over/under goals data to great effect. Highly recommend this site if you're looking for reliable stats."

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