São Paulo vs Grêmio — Free Prediction & Stats

📍 Serie A, Brazil
🕒 Thursday 12th February, 00:30 GMT

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Under 3.5 Goals

São Paulo have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 8/10 home matches (80%). Grêmio have struggled on the road, winning only 2/10 away games (20%). The hosts look strong favourites — see our Home Win stats.

Both sides regularly see 2+ goals in recent matches (São Paulo 80% at home, Grêmio 100% away), though three or more is less consistent. Over 1.5 Goals is the safer selection here.

Grêmio regularly see both teams score in away matches (70%), while São Paulo are lower at home (40%). The visitors' tendency to be involved in goal-heavy games supports BTTS – Yes.

São Paulo regularly reach high corner totals at home (70%), while Grêmio are lower on the road (20%). The home side may drive the game to Over 9.5 Corners.

Our Prediction: Under 3.5 Goals — São Paulo have stayed under 4 goals in 90% of home matches, Grêmio in 80% of away fixtures. Both sides consistently keep the scoring tight.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

The full Serie A table for the 2026 season, with São Paulo (6th) and Grêmio (10th) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Serie A 2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Palmeiras 9 7 1 1 19:9 +10 22
2 Fluminense 9 6 1 2 16:10 +6 19
3 São Paulo H 9 5 2 2 11:6 +5 17
4 Bahia 8 5 2 1 12:7 +5 17
5 Athletico PR 9 5 1 3 14:11 +3 16
6 Flamengo 8 4 2 2 13:8 +5 14
7 Coritiba 9 4 2 3 10:9 +1 14
8 Vasco da Gama 9 3 3 3 14:14 0 12
9 Atlético Mineiro 9 3 2 4 12:11 +1 11
10 Grêmio A 9 3 2 4 14:14 0 11
11 Bragantino 9 3 2 4 9:10 -1 11
12 Vitória 8 3 1 4 8:13 -5 10
13 Corinthians 9 2 4 3 8:10 -2 10
14 Santos 9 2 4 3 12:13 -1 10
15 Botafogo 8 3 0 5 14:18 -4 9
16 Internacional 9 2 3 4 8:10 -2 9
17 Cruzeiro 9 1 4 4 11:16 -5 7
18 Chapecoense 8 1 4 3 9:15 -6 7
19 Remo 9 1 3 5 10:17 -7 6
20 Mirassol 8 1 3 4 10:13 -3 6

Team Form

São Paulo have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 80% of their home matches compared to Grêmio's 20% away. The hosts hold a significant form advantage heading into this fixture.

São Paulo (Home Form) Grêmio (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 8 (80%) 2 (20%)
Drawn 0 (0%) 3 (30%)
Lost 2 (20%) 5 (50%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Grêmio regularly see both teams score in away matches (70%), while São Paulo are lower at home (40%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

São Paulo (Home Form) Grêmio (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 4 (40%) 7 (70%)

Match Goals

Both sides regularly see 2+ goals in their matches (São Paulo 80% at home, Grêmio 100% away), though 3+ is less consistent. Over 1.5 Goals looks the more reliable selection.

Over Goals

São Paulo (Home Form) Grêmio (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 10 (100%) 10 (100%)
Over 1.5 Goals 8 (80%) 10 (100%)
Over 2.5 Goals 5 (50%) 5 (50%)
Over 3.5 Goals 1 (10%) 2 (20%)

Under Goals

São Paulo (Home Form) Grêmio (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals 2 (20%) 0 (0%)
Under 2.5 Goals 5 (50%) 5 (50%)
Under 3.5 Goals 9 (90%) 8 (80%)

Team Goals

São Paulo have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, Grêmio in 10% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

São Paulo (Home Form) Grêmio (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 9 (90%) 9 (90%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 8 (80%) 3 (30%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 1 (10%) 1 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 0 (0%) 1 (10%)

Goals Conceded

São Paulo (Home Form) Grêmio (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 5 (50%) 8 (80%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 1 (10%) 5 (50%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 1 (10%) 1 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 1 (10%)

Goal Totals

São Paulo (Home Form) Grêmio (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 18 (1.8 avg) 14 (1.4 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 7 (0.7 avg) 15 (1.5 avg)

Match Corners

São Paulo regularly reach high corner counts at home (80%), while Grêmio are lower on the road (40%). The home side are likely to dominate the corner count in this fixture.

São Paulo (Home Form) Grêmio (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 9 (90%) 7 (70%)
Over 8.5 Corners 8 (80%) 4 (40%)
Over 9.5 Corners 7 (70%) 2 (20%)
Over 10.5 Corners 7 (70%) 1 (10%)
Over 11.5 Corners 5 (50%) 1 (10%)
Over 12.5 Corners 4 (40%) 1 (10%)

Team Corners

São Paulo have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 40% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of home matches.

Grêmio have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of away matches.

Corners Won

São Paulo (Home Form) Grêmio (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 3 (30%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 2 (20%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 1 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 0 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 0 (0%)

Corners Conceded

São Paulo (Home Form) Grêmio (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 6 (60%) 3 (30%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 6 (60%) 3 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 1 (10%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between São Paulo and Grêmio. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

16 Oct 2025
Grêmio
2 – 0 HT: 1-0
São Paulo
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
18 May 2025
São Paulo
2 – 1 HT: 0-1
Grêmio
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
01 Dec 2024
Grêmio
2 – 1 HT: 2-0
São Paulo
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
17 Jul 2024
São Paulo
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
Grêmio
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
21 Oct 2023
São Paulo
3 – 0 HT: 1-0
Grêmio
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
04 Jun 2023
Grêmio
2 – 1 HT: 2-1
São Paulo
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
02 Dec 2021
Grêmio
3 – 0 HT: 1-0
São Paulo
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
15 Aug 2021
São Paulo
2 – 1 HT: 1-1
Grêmio
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
14 Feb 2021
Grêmio
1 – 2 HT: 1-0
São Paulo
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
31 Dec 2020
São Paulo
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Grêmio
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for São Paulo vs Grêmio across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

São Paulo 1.98
Draw 3.26
Grêmio 4.2

Half Time Result

São Paulo 2.71
Draw 2.21
Grêmio 4.62

Double Chance

São Paulo or Draw 1.18
São Paulo or Grêmio 1.33
Draw or Grêmio 1.83

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.82
No 1.93

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.31
Over 2.5 2.22
Over 3.5 4.2
Under 1.5 3.37
Under 2.5 1.8
Under 3.5 1.3

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.38
Over 1.5 3.25

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.5
Over 9.5 1.52
Over 10.5 2.37
Over 11.5 3.4

São Paulo Goals

Over 0.5 1.18
Over 1.5 2.07
Over 2.5 5.5

Grêmio Goals

Over 0.5 1.52
Over 1.5 3.6
Over 2.5 10

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Ożarowianka Ożarów Mazowiecki vs MLKS Victoria Sulejówek 18:00 BST | IV Liga: Mazowiecka, Poland Ożarowianka Ożarów Mazowiecki have seen over 2.5 goals in 10/11 home matches this season · MLKS Victoria Sulejówek have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.44
    90% combined
  • Tolka Rovers vs UCD II 19:45 BST | Leinster Senior League, Republic of Ireland Tolka Rovers have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/9 home matches this season · UCD II have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/8 away matches this season · Odds: 1.5
    89% combined
  • Sparta Praha II W vs Pardubice W 17:00 BST | 2. Liga Women, Czech Republic Sparta Praha II W have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/8 home matches this season · Pardubice W have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/8 away matches this season · Odds: 1.4
    87% combined
  • Charlton Athletic U21 vs AFC Bournemouth U21 13:30 BST | Professional Development League, England Charlton Athletic U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 9/12 home matches this season · AFC Bournemouth U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 10/10 away matches this season · Odds: 1.28
    87% combined
Acca odds (approx) 3.87
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São Paulo vs Grêmio Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for São Paulo vs Grêmio?

Under 3.5 Goals — São Paulo have stayed under 4 goals in 90% of home matches, Grêmio in 80% of away fixtures. Both sides consistently keep the scoring tight.

Which team is likely to win, São Paulo or Grêmio?

São Paulo hold a clear form advantage — they've won 80% of home games in Serie A this season, while Grêmio have won only 20% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between São Paulo and Grêmio?

Possibly — Grêmio regularly see both teams score away (70%), while São Paulo are lower at home (40%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between São Paulo and Grêmio?

Uncertain — São Paulo have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 50% of home games, Grêmio in 50% of away games in Serie A. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: São Paulo or Grêmio?

Grêmio have the stronger away scoring record — 2+ goals in 10% of away games compared to São Paulo's 10% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between São Paulo and Grêmio?

Possibly — São Paulo regularly reach high corner counts at home (80%), while Grêmio are lower on the road (40%). The home side may drive the corner count in this fixture.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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Over 2.5 Goals

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Both Teams to Score

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Home Win

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Over 1.5 Goals

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10 Teams to Win Today

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"The stats on this site are spot on. I’ve been using the home win, away win and over 2.5 goals data for my bets, and it’s been super helpful. It’s great to have all the key stats in one place, from goals to corners. The fact that it’s free is just the icing on the cake!"

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