Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Jaiba Brava

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico
🕒 Sunday 17th May, 02:00 BST

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos sit 1st in the table after 36 games, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per home match this season. Jaiba Brava are 2nd after 38 games, averaging 1.1 scored and 1.3 conceded on the road. Tepatitlán de Morelos have the stronger home record this season (9/10, 90%) against a Jaiba Brava side who've won 4/10 away (40%).

Tepatitlán de Morelos have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games this season (4/10); Jaiba Brava in 50% away (5/10). Tepatitlán de Morelos average 2.1 scored and 0.4 conceded at home, Jaiba Brava 1.1 and 1.3 on the road.

Jaiba Brava regularly see both teams score in away fixtures (70%, 7/10). Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (40%, 4/10) — they've conceded in 40% of home games, which keeps BTTS in play.

Corner counts have been moderate to high for both sides this season — Tepatitlán de Morelos see 8+ in 80% of home games, Jaiba Brava in 90% away. Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Our Prediction: Over 1.5 Goals — Tepatitlán de Morelos see 2+ goals in 90% of home games, Jaiba Brava in 70% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

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League Table

The full Liga de Expansión MX table for the 2025/2026 season, with Tepatitlán de Morelos (1st) and Jaiba Brava (2nd) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Liga de Expansión MX 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Jaiba Brava A 41 21 12 8 54:39 +15 75
2 Cancún 34 17 10 7 55:32 +23 61
3 Tepatitlán de Morelos H 39 15 15 9 52:34 +18 60
4 Atlante 32 15 9 8 59:31 +28 54
5 Morelia 34 14 9 11 44:39 +5 51
6 Mineros de Zacatecas 34 12 13 9 53:51 +2 49
7 Irapuato 34 12 12 10 54:48 +6 48
8 CA La Paz 30 9 12 9 48:46 +2 39
9 Tapatío 30 10 6 14 49:44 +5 36
10 Universidad Guadalajara 30 9 8 13 36:46 -10 35
11 Venados 28 9 7 12 54:55 -1 34
12 Tlaxcala 28 8 10 10 30:44 -14 34
13 Alebrijes 28 7 8 13 36:54 -18 29
14 Correcaminos UAT 28 5 7 16 30:62 -32 22
15 Dorados 28 4 6 18 25:54 -29 18

Team Form

Tepatitlán de Morelos have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 90% of their home matches compared to Jaiba Brava's 40% away. The hosts hold a significant form advantage heading into this fixture.

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Jaiba Brava (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 9 (90%) 4 (40%)
Drawn 1 (10%) 2 (20%)
Lost 0 (0%) 4 (40%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Jaiba Brava regularly see both teams score in away matches (70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (40%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Jaiba Brava (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 4 (40%) 7 (70%)

Match Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Jaiba Brava in 50% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Over Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Jaiba Brava (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 10 (100%) 10 (100%)
Over 1.5 Goals 9 (90%) 7 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals 4 (40%) 5 (50%)
Over 3.5 Goals 2 (20%) 2 (20%)

Under Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Jaiba Brava (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals 1 (10%) 3 (30%)
Under 2.5 Goals 6 (60%) 5 (50%)
Under 3.5 Goals 8 (80%) 8 (80%)

Team Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos have scored 2+ goals in 20% of home games this season, Jaiba Brava in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Jaiba Brava (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 10 (100%) 8 (80%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 8 (80%) 3 (30%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 2 (20%) 0 (0%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 1 (10%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Jaiba Brava (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 4 (40%) 9 (90%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 2 (20%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 2 (20%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goal Totals

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Jaiba Brava (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 21 (2.1 avg) 11 (1.1 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 4 (0.4 avg) 13 (1.3 avg)

Match Corners

Jaiba Brava frequently reach high corner counts away from home (80%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (50%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Jaiba Brava (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 8 (80%) 9 (90%)
Over 8.5 Corners 5 (50%) 8 (80%)
Over 9.5 Corners 3 (30%) 5 (50%)
Over 10.5 Corners 2 (20%) 3 (30%)
Over 11.5 Corners 2 (20%) 3 (30%)
Over 12.5 Corners 1 (10%) 3 (30%)

Team Corners

Tepatitlán de Morelos have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 40% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Jaiba Brava have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 40% of away matches.

Corners Won

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Jaiba Brava (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 4 (40%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 4 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 3 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 1 (10%)

Corners Conceded

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Jaiba Brava (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 3 (30%) 6 (60%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 2 (20%) 4 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 4 (40%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 3 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 2 (20%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Tepatitlán de Morelos and Jaiba Brava. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

10 May 2026
Jaiba Brava
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Tepatitlán de Morelos
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
18 Jan 2026
Jaiba Brava
0 – 1 HT: 0-0
Tepatitlán de Morelos
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
23 Nov 2025
Jaiba Brava
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Tepatitlán de Morelos
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
21 Nov 2025
Tepatitlán de Morelos
0 – 1 HT: 0-1
Jaiba Brava
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
09 Aug 2025
Tepatitlán de Morelos
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Jaiba Brava
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Jaiba Brava across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.85
Draw 3.3
Jaiba Brava 4.5

Half Time Result

Tepatitlán de Morelos 2.48
Draw 2.05
Jaiba Brava 4.68

Double Chance

Tepatitlán de Morelos or Draw 1.19
Tepatitlán de Morelos or Jaiba Brava 1.24
Draw or Jaiba Brava 1.85

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.93
No 1.76

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.34
Over 2.5 2.15
Over 3.5 3.8
Under 1.5 2.78
Under 2.5 1.66
Under 3.5 1.19

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.43
Over 1.5 3.1

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.16
Over 9.5 1.38
Over 10.5 2.04
Over 11.5 2.16

Tepatitlán de Morelos Goals

Over 0.5 1.21
Over 1.5 2.09

Jaiba Brava Goals

Over 0.5 1.53
Over 1.5 3.58

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Phoenix vs Vaprus II 17:00 BST | Esiliiga B, Estonia Phoenix have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/7 home matches this season · Vaprus II have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.25
    91% combined
  • B68 vs HB 17:15 BST | Meistaradeildin, Faroe Islands B68 have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 home matches this season · HB have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.44
    90% combined
  • South Melbourne vs Avondale Heights 10:30 BST | Npl Victoria, Australia South Melbourne have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · Avondale Heights have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.2
    75% combined
  • FA Šiauliai vs FK Riteriai 16:30 BST | A Lyga, Lithuania FA Šiauliai have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/6 home matches this season · FK Riteriai have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/7 away matches this season · Odds: 1.66
    69% combined
Acca odds (approx) 3.59
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Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Jaiba Brava Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Jaiba Brava?

Over 1.5 Goals — Tepatitlán de Morelos see 2+ goals in 90% of home games, Jaiba Brava in 70% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

Which team is likely to win, Tepatitlán de Morelos or Jaiba Brava?

Tepatitlán de Morelos hold a clear form advantage — they've won 90% of home games in Liga de Expansión MX this season, while Jaiba Brava have won only 40% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Tepatitlán de Morelos and Jaiba Brava?

Possibly — Jaiba Brava regularly see both teams score away (70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (40%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Tepatitlán de Morelos and Jaiba Brava?

Uncertain — Tepatitlán de Morelos have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Jaiba Brava in 50% of away games in Liga de Expansión MX. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Tepatitlán de Morelos or Jaiba Brava?

Tepatitlán de Morelos have the stronger scoring record — 2+ goals in 20% of home games compared to Jaiba Brava's 0% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Tepatitlán de Morelos and Jaiba Brava?

Possibly — Jaiba Brava frequently reach high corner counts away (80%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (50%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

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