Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tapatío Football Stats

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico
🕒 Saturday 24th January, 01:00 GMT

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Tepatitlán de Morelos to Win

Tepatitlán de Morelos sit 4th in the table after 14 games, averaging 2.1 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per home match this season. Tapatío are 3rd after 14 games, averaging 1.3 scored and 1.9 conceded on the road. The home record backs Tepatitlán de Morelos strongly — they've won 9/10 home games (90%), while Tapatío have lost 6/10 on the road (60%).

Tapatío have featured in high-scoring away games this season — Over 2.5 Goals in 70% of their away fixtures (7/10). Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (40%, 4/10), averaging 2.1 scored and 0.4 conceded.

Tapatío regularly see both teams score in away fixtures (70%, 7/10). Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (40%, 4/10) — they've conceded in 40% of home games, which keeps BTTS in play.

Corner counts have been moderate to high for both sides this season — Tepatitlán de Morelos see 8+ in 80% of home games, Tapatío in 80% away. Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Our Prediction: Tepatitlán de Morelos to Win — Tepatitlán de Morelos have won 9/10 home games this season (90%), while Tapatío have lost 6/10 away (60%). A strong statistical case for the home side.

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See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

The full Liga de Expansión MX table for the 2025/2026 season, with Tepatitlán de Morelos (4th) and Tapatío (3rd) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Liga de Expansión MX 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Jaiba Brava 41 21 12 8 54:39 +15 75
2 Cancún 34 17 10 7 55:32 +23 61
3 Tepatitlán de Morelos H 39 15 15 9 52:34 +18 60
4 Atlante 32 15 9 8 59:31 +28 54
5 Morelia 34 14 9 11 44:39 +5 51
6 Mineros de Zacatecas 34 12 13 9 53:51 +2 49
7 Irapuato 34 12 12 10 54:48 +6 48
8 CA La Paz 30 9 12 9 48:46 +2 39
9 Tapatío A 30 10 6 14 49:44 +5 36
10 Universidad Guadalajara 30 9 8 13 36:46 -10 35
11 Venados 28 9 7 12 54:55 -1 34
12 Tlaxcala 28 8 10 10 30:44 -14 34
13 Alebrijes 28 7 8 13 36:54 -18 29
14 Correcaminos UAT 28 5 7 16 30:62 -32 22
15 Dorados 28 4 6 18 25:54 -29 18

Team Form

Tepatitlán de Morelos have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 90% of their home matches compared to Tapatío's 10% away. The hosts hold a significant form advantage heading into this fixture.

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Tapatío (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 9 (90%) 1 (10%)
Drawn 1 (10%) 3 (30%)
Lost 0 (0%) 6 (60%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Tapatío regularly see both teams score in away matches (70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (40%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Tapatío (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 4 (40%) 7 (70%)

Match Goals

Tapatío regularly feature in high-scoring away games (Over 2.5 in 70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (40%). The visitors' attacking output suggests multiple goals are likely.

Over Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Tapatío (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 10 (100%) 9 (90%)
Over 1.5 Goals 9 (90%) 8 (80%)
Over 2.5 Goals 4 (40%) 7 (70%)
Over 3.5 Goals 2 (20%) 5 (50%)

Under Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Tapatío (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 0 (0%) 1 (10%)
Under 1.5 Goals 1 (10%) 2 (20%)
Under 2.5 Goals 6 (60%) 3 (30%)
Under 3.5 Goals 8 (80%) 5 (50%)

Team Goals

Tepatitlán de Morelos have scored 2+ goals in 20% of home games this season, Tapatío in 20% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Tapatío (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 10 (100%) 7 (70%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 8 (80%) 4 (40%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 1 (10%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Tapatío (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 4 (40%) 9 (90%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 7 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 2 (20%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 1 (10%)

Goal Totals

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Tapatío (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 21 (2.1 avg) 13 (1.3 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 4 (0.4 avg) 19 (1.9 avg)

Match Corners

Tapatío frequently reach high corner counts away from home (70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (50%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Tapatío (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 8 (80%) 8 (80%)
Over 8.5 Corners 5 (50%) 7 (70%)
Over 9.5 Corners 3 (30%) 6 (60%)
Over 10.5 Corners 2 (20%) 6 (60%)
Over 11.5 Corners 2 (20%) 5 (50%)
Over 12.5 Corners 1 (10%) 3 (30%)

Team Corners

Tepatitlán de Morelos have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 40% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Tapatío have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 40% of away matches.

Corners Won

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Tapatío (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 7 (70%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 3 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 2 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 2 (20%)

Corners Conceded

Tepatitlán de Morelos (Home Form) Tapatío (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 3 (30%) 6 (60%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 2 (20%) 6 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 4 (40%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 2 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 1 (10%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Tepatitlán de Morelos and Tapatío. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

17 Aug 2025
Tapatío
1 – 3 HT: 0-2
Tepatitlán de Morelos
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
15 Feb 2025
Tepatitlán de Morelos
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Tapatío
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
11 Nov 2024
Tapatío
1 – 1 HT: 1-0
Tepatitlán de Morelos
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
08 Nov 2024
Tepatitlán de Morelos
1 – 1 HT: 0-0
Tapatío
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
01 Sep 2024
Tapatío
2 – 0 HT: 1-0
Tepatitlán de Morelos
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
23 Mar 2024
Tepatitlán de Morelos
0 – 4 HT: 0-2
Tapatío
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
25 Sep 2023
Tapatío
2 – 2 HT: 2-1
Tepatitlán de Morelos
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
26 Mar 2023
Tapatío
0 – 2 HT: 0-2
Tepatitlán de Morelos
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
23 Sep 2022
Tepatitlán de Morelos
3 – 2 HT: 1-2
Tapatío
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
02 Mar 2022
Tepatitlán de Morelos
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
Tapatío
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tapatío across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.93
Draw 3.8
Tapatío 3.68

Half Time Result

Tepatitlán de Morelos 2.49
Draw 2.38
Tapatío 4.25

Double Chance

Tepatitlán de Morelos or Draw 1.2
Tepatitlán de Morelos or Tapatío 1.21
Draw or Tapatío 1.85

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.62
No 2.15

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.18
Over 2.5 1.75
Over 3.5 2.82
Under 1.5 4.15
Under 2.5 2.11
Under 3.5 1.43

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.29
Over 1.5 2.61

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.09
Over 9.5 1.27
Over 10.5 1.79
Over 11.5 1.92

Tepatitlán de Morelos Goals

Over 0.5 1.14
Over 1.5 1.86

Tapatío Goals

Over 0.5 1.4
Over 1.5 2.9

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju U21 17:00 BST | Esiliiga A, Estonia Tartu Welco have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 home matches this season · Nõmme Kalju U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.22
    90% combined
  • PR Surf vs Ponce 01:30 BST | Liga Puerto Rico, Puerto Rico PR Surf have seen over 2.5 goals in 13/18 home matches this season · Ponce have seen over 2.5 goals in 16/18 away matches this season · Odds: 1.36
    80% combined
  • SønderjyskE U19 vs Nordsjaelland U19 15:00 BST | U19 League, Denmark SønderjyskE U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/12 home matches this season · Nordsjaelland U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/12 away matches this season · Odds: 1.28
    79% combined
  • Kyzyl-Zhar vs Zhetysu 12:00 BST | Premier League, Kazakhstan Kyzyl-Zhar have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · Zhetysu have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/6 away matches this season · Odds: 2.37
    75% combined
Acca odds (approx) 5.03
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Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tapatío Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Tapatío?

Tepatitlán de Morelos to Win — they've won 9/10 (90%) of their last 10 home games, while Tapatío have lost 6/10 (60%) of their last 10 away matches. A strong statistical case for the home side.

Which team is likely to win, Tepatitlán de Morelos or Tapatío?

Tepatitlán de Morelos hold a clear form advantage — they've won 90% of home games in Liga de Expansión MX this season, while Tapatío have won only 10% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Tepatitlán de Morelos and Tapatío?

Possibly — Tapatío regularly see both teams score away (70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (40%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Tepatitlán de Morelos and Tapatío?

Possibly — Tapatío regularly feature in high-scoring away games (Over 2.5 in 70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (40%). The visitors' attacking output suggests multiple goals are likely.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Tepatitlán de Morelos or Tapatío?

Tapatío have the stronger away scoring record — 2+ goals in 20% of away games compared to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 20% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Tepatitlán de Morelos and Tapatío?

Possibly — Tapatío frequently reach high corner counts away (70%), while Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower at home (50%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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Over 2.5 Goals

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10 Teams to Win Today

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Match Stats

"The stats on this site are spot on. I’ve been using the home win, away win and over 2.5 goals data for my bets, and it’s been super helpful. It’s great to have all the key stats in one place, from goals to corners. The fact that it’s free is just the icing on the cake!"

James T. (London, UK)

"I love the focus on stats like home goals over 1.5 and away goals over 1.5—these are the exact numbers I need before placing a bet. I’ve been able to use the over/under goals data to great effect. Highly recommend this site if you're looking for reliable stats."

Steve C. (Birmingham, UK)

"I’m really impressed with the simplicity and focus of the stats on this site. Whether I’m checking for both teams to score or first half goals, I always get what I need quickly. It’s easy to navigate, and the range of stats really helps with my bets."

Scott T. (Manchester, UK)

"Great site for betting stats! I use it mostly for checking both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, and it’s been really helpful. The first half stats also give me a great edge in making my decisions."

Finn B. (Leeds, UK)

"I love how this site makes betting easier by offering stats like home win, away win, and over 2.5 goals. The first half goals and team goals data have been particularly useful for me. If you’re into football betting, this is definitely worth checking out."

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