Toluca vs Monterrey — Free Prediction & Stats

📍 Liga MX, Mexico
🕒 Thursday 25th September, 03:05 BST

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

Toluca have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 8/10 home matches (80%). Monterrey have struggled on the road, winning only 2/10 away games (20%). The hosts look strong favourites — see our Home Win stats.

Toluca frequently feature in matches with 2+ goals at home (90%), while Monterrey are more variable on the road (70%). Over 1.5 Goals may still land, mainly driven by the home side.

Toluca often see both teams score at home (70%), while Monterrey are less consistent on the road (50%). There's still a reasonable case for BTTS – Yes, mainly driven by the home side's open style.

Both teams regularly see 8+ corners in recent games (60% and 80%) — Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Our Prediction: Over 1.5 Goals — Toluca see 2+ goals in 90% of home games, Monterrey in 70% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

The full Liga MX table for the 2025/2026 season, with Toluca (3rd) and Monterrey (2nd) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Liga MX 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Toluca H 36 21 10 5 69:32 +37 73
2 Cruz Azul 35 19 12 4 62:39 +23 69
3 Tigres UANL 37 18 10 9 66:39 +27 64
4 Guadalajara 33 19 4 10 59:42 +17 61
5 América 33 16 8 9 50:34 +16 56
6 Pachuca 33 15 8 10 46:37 +9 53
7 Monterrey A 35 15 7 13 58:51 +7 52
8 Tijuana 34 12 12 10 50:44 +6 48
9 Pumas UNAM 31 11 12 8 48:42 +6 45
10 Juárez 35 11 10 14 52:58 -6 43
11 Atlas 31 9 9 13 38:53 -15 36
12 Querétaro 31 9 8 14 32:47 -15 35
13 Necaxa 31 9 6 16 41:52 -11 33
14 León 31 9 5 17 30:55 -25 32
15 Atlético San Luis 30 9 3 18 45:51 -6 30
16 Santos Laguna 31 8 5 18 39:63 -24 29
17 Mazatlán 30 5 10 15 35:54 -19 25
18 Puebla 31 6 7 18 32:59 -27 25

Team Form

Toluca have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 80% of their home matches compared to Monterrey's 20% away. The hosts hold a significant form advantage heading into this fixture.

Toluca (Home Form) Monterrey (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 8 (80%) 2 (20%)
Drawn 2 (20%) 4 (40%)
Lost 0 (0%) 4 (40%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Toluca frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Monterrey are less consistent on the road (50%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Toluca (Home Form) Monterrey (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 7 (70%) 5 (50%)

Match Goals

Toluca have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 60% of home games, Monterrey in 30% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Over Goals

Toluca (Home Form) Monterrey (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 10 (100%) 9 (90%)
Over 1.5 Goals 9 (90%) 7 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals 6 (60%) 3 (30%)
Over 3.5 Goals 5 (50%) 3 (30%)

Under Goals

Toluca (Home Form) Monterrey (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 0 (0%) 1 (10%)
Under 1.5 Goals 1 (10%) 3 (30%)
Under 2.5 Goals 4 (40%) 7 (70%)
Under 3.5 Goals 5 (50%) 7 (70%)

Team Goals

Toluca have scored 2+ goals in 50% of home games this season, Monterrey in 10% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Toluca (Home Form) Monterrey (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 10 (100%) 6 (60%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 7 (70%) 4 (40%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 5 (50%) 1 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 2 (20%) 1 (10%)

Goals Conceded

Toluca (Home Form) Monterrey (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 7 (70%) 8 (80%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 2 (20%) 3 (30%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 1 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goal Totals

Toluca (Home Form) Monterrey (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 24 (2.4 avg) 13 (1.3 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 9 (0.9 avg) 12 (1.2 avg)

Match Corners

Monterrey frequently reach high corner counts away from home (70%), while Toluca are lower at home (50%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Toluca (Home Form) Monterrey (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 6 (60%) 8 (80%)
Over 8.5 Corners 5 (50%) 7 (70%)
Over 9.5 Corners 3 (30%) 4 (40%)
Over 10.5 Corners 2 (20%) 3 (30%)
Over 11.5 Corners 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 12.5 Corners 1 (10%) 1 (10%)

Team Corners

Toluca have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 0% of home matches.

Monterrey have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of away matches.

Corners Won

Toluca (Home Form) Monterrey (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 3 (30%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 3 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 2 (20%) 1 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 0 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Toluca (Home Form) Monterrey (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 2 (20%) 6 (60%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 6 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 1 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 1 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 1 (10%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Toluca and Monterrey. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

11th May, 2025
Toluca
2 – 1 HT: 1-0
Monterrey
Corners 5–6 Cards 5–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
8th May, 2025
Monterrey
3 – 2 HT: 1-1
Toluca
Corners 1–2 Cards 3–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19th Jan, 2025
Toluca
1 – 1 HT: 1-0
Monterrey
Corners 5–6 Cards 1–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
1st Sep, 2024
Monterrey
1 – 2 HT: 0-1
Toluca
Corners 3–1 Cards 2–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19th Feb, 2024
Monterrey
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Toluca
Corners 4–4 Cards 0–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
31st Aug, 2023
Toluca
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
Monterrey
Corners 4–4 Cards 1–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
6th Feb, 2023
Monterrey
2 – 1 HT: 2-0
Toluca
Corners 3–9 Cards 3–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
18th Aug, 2022
Toluca
1 – 1 HT: 1-0
Monterrey
Corners 10–2 Cards 2–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
7th Apr, 2022
Toluca
2 – 2 HT: 1-2
Monterrey
Corners 2–3 Cards 3–4 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
23rd Sep, 2021
Monterrey
2 – 0 HT: 1-0
Toluca
Corners 6–4 Cards 3–7 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Toluca vs Monterrey across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

Toluca 1.56
Draw 4.51
Monterrey 5.88

Half Time Result

Toluca 2.04
Draw 2.64
Monterrey 5.27

Double Chance

Toluca or Draw 1.17
Toluca or Monterrey 1.22
Draw or Monterrey 2.6

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.57
No 2.3

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.15
Over 2.5 1.52
Over 3.5 2.2
Under 1.5 5.1
Under 2.5 2.71
Under 3.5 1.72

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.22
Over 1.5 2.2

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.25
Over 9.5 1.38
Over 10.5 2.02
Over 11.5 2.2

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.52
Over 2.5 2.45

Monterrey Goals

Over 0.5 1.45
Over 1.5 2.9
Over 2.5 8

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Manchester City U21 vs Norwich City U21 19:00 BST | Premier League 2 Division One, England Manchester City U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/9 home matches this season · Norwich City U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.22
    89% combined
  • Crewe Alexandra U21 vs Queens Park Rangers U21 13:00 BST | Professional Development League, England Crewe Alexandra U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 10/13 home matches this season · Queens Park Rangers U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/13 away matches this season · Odds: 1.3
    81% combined
  • Sheffield United U21 vs Bristol City U21 14:00 BST | Professional Development League, England Sheffield United U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/12 home matches this season · Bristol City U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/13 away matches this season · Odds: 1.28
    76% combined
  • Newcastle United U21 vs Wolves U21 19:00 BST | Premier League 2 Division One, England Newcastle United U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/9 home matches this season · Wolves U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.44
    72% combined
Acca odds (approx) 2.92
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Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Toluca vs Monterrey?

Over 1.5 Goals — Toluca see 2+ goals in 90% of home games, Monterrey in 70% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

Which team is likely to win, Toluca or Monterrey?

Toluca hold a clear form advantage — they've won 80% of home games in Liga MX this season, while Monterrey have won only 20% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Toluca and Monterrey?

Possibly — Toluca frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Monterrey are lower on the road (50%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Toluca and Monterrey?

Uncertain — Toluca have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 60% of home games, Monterrey in 30% of away games in Liga MX. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Toluca or Monterrey?

Toluca have the stronger scoring record — 2+ goals in 50% of home games compared to Monterrey's 10% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Toluca and Monterrey?

Possibly — Monterrey frequently reach high corner counts away (70%), while Toluca are lower at home (50%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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Over 2.5 Goals

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Home Win

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Over 1.5 Goals

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10 Teams to Win Today

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David H. (Glasgow, UK)

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Finn B. (Leeds, UK)

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