Universidad Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Football Stats

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico
🕒 Sunday 15th February, 18:00 GMT

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Universidad Guadalajara sit 13th in the table after 19 games, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per home match this season. Tepatitlán de Morelos are 2nd after 21 games, averaging 0.7 scored and 1 conceded on the road. Universidad Guadalajara have won 4/10 home games (40%) this season; Tepatitlán de Morelos have won 1/10 on the road (10%). There's no dominant edge either way.

Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches this season. Universidad Guadalajara have seen 3+ goals in only 30% of home fixtures; Tepatitlán de Morelos in 20% away. Universidad Guadalajara average 1.1 scored and 0.8 conceded at home, Tepatitlán de Morelos 0.7 and 1 on the road — the numbers point toward a tight game.

Both sides have solid defensive records in context. Universidad Guadalajara have seen BTTS in only 40% of home games (4/10); Tepatitlán de Morelos in 40% away (4/10). At least one clean sheet looks likely.

Universidad Guadalajara regularly generate high corner counts at home (10+ corners in 80% of fixtures, 8/10). Tepatitlán de Morelos are lower on the road (60%). The home side's attacking style tends to produce set-piece volume regardless of the opponent.

Our Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals — Universidad Guadalajara have stayed under 3 goals in 70% of home games, Tepatitlán de Morelos in 80% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

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League Table

The full Liga de Expansión MX table for the 2025/2026 season, with Universidad Guadalajara (13th) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (2nd) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Liga de Expansión MX 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Jaiba Brava 41 21 12 8 54:39 +15 75
2 Cancún 34 17 10 7 55:32 +23 61
3 Tepatitlán de Morelos A 39 15 15 9 52:34 +18 60
4 Atlante 32 15 9 8 59:31 +28 54
5 Morelia 34 14 9 11 44:39 +5 51
6 Mineros de Zacatecas 34 12 13 9 53:51 +2 49
7 Irapuato 34 12 12 10 54:48 +6 48
8 CA La Paz 30 9 12 9 48:46 +2 39
9 Tapatío 30 10 6 14 49:44 +5 36
10 Universidad Guadalajara H 30 9 8 13 36:46 -10 35
11 Venados 28 9 7 12 54:55 -1 34
12 Tlaxcala 28 8 10 10 30:44 -14 34
13 Alebrijes 28 7 8 13 36:54 -18 29
14 Correcaminos UAT 28 5 7 16 30:62 -32 22
15 Dorados 28 4 6 18 25:54 -29 18

Team Form

Universidad Guadalajara have won 40% of home games this season, Tepatitlán de Morelos 10% away. The form table below gives the full picture heading into this match.

Universidad Guadalajara (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 4 (40%) 1 (10%)
Drawn 3 (30%) 6 (60%)
Lost 3 (30%) 3 (30%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Universidad Guadalajara (40% BTTS at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (40% BTTS away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches this season. A clean sheet for one side looks the more likely outcome.

Universidad Guadalajara (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 4 (40%) 4 (40%)

Match Goals

Universidad Guadalajara (30% Over 2.5 at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (20% away) have both featured predominantly in low-scoring matches this season. Under 2.5 Goals looks the stronger play.

Over Goals

Universidad Guadalajara (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 8 (80%) 7 (70%)
Over 1.5 Goals 5 (50%) 5 (50%)
Over 2.5 Goals 3 (30%) 2 (20%)
Over 3.5 Goals 2 (20%) 2 (20%)

Under Goals

Universidad Guadalajara (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 2 (20%) 3 (30%)
Under 1.5 Goals 5 (50%) 5 (50%)
Under 2.5 Goals 7 (70%) 8 (80%)
Under 3.5 Goals 8 (80%) 8 (80%)

Team Goals

Universidad Guadalajara have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, Tepatitlán de Morelos in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Universidad Guadalajara (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 7 (70%) 5 (50%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 1 (10%) 0 (0%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 1 (10%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Universidad Guadalajara (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 5 (50%) 6 (60%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 2 (20%) 3 (30%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 1 (10%) 1 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goal Totals

Universidad Guadalajara (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 11 (1.1 avg) 7 (0.7 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 8 (0.8 avg) 10 (1 avg)

Match Corners

Both Universidad Guadalajara (90% Over 8.5 at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches. Expect plenty of set-piece opportunities from both sides.

Universidad Guadalajara (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 9 (90%) 10 (100%)
Over 8.5 Corners 9 (90%) 7 (70%)
Over 9.5 Corners 8 (80%) 6 (60%)
Over 10.5 Corners 6 (60%) 4 (40%)
Over 11.5 Corners 3 (30%) 2 (20%)
Over 12.5 Corners 2 (20%) 1 (10%)

Team Corners

Universidad Guadalajara have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of home matches.

Tepatitlán de Morelos have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of away matches.

Corners Won

Universidad Guadalajara (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 8 (80%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 2 (20%) 6 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 3 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 2 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 1 (10%)

Corners Conceded

Universidad Guadalajara (Home Form) Tepatitlán de Morelos (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 9 (90%) 4 (40%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 8 (80%) 3 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 2 (20%) 1 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 0 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 0 (0%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Universidad Guadalajara and Tepatitlán de Morelos. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

07 Sep 2025
Tepatitlán de Morelos
1 – 1 HT: 0-1
Universidad Guadalajara
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
27 Apr 2025
Universidad Guadalajara
2 – 1 HT: 1-0
Tepatitlán de Morelos
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
25 Apr 2025
Tepatitlán de Morelos
2 – 1 HT: 1-1
Universidad Guadalajara
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
01 Mar 2025
Tepatitlán de Morelos
1 – 1 HT: 1-0
Universidad Guadalajara
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
15 Sep 2024
Universidad Guadalajara
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
Tepatitlán de Morelos
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
11 Apr 2024
Universidad Guadalajara
3 – 2 HT: 3-1
Tepatitlán de Morelos
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
13 Aug 2023
Tepatitlán de Morelos
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Universidad Guadalajara
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
28 Apr 2023
Tepatitlán de Morelos
0 – 1 HT: 0-1
Universidad Guadalajara
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19 Feb 2023
Tepatitlán de Morelos
1 – 1 HT: 0-1
Universidad Guadalajara
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
11 Jul 2022
Universidad Guadalajara
3 – 0 HT: 1-0
Tepatitlán de Morelos
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Universidad Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

Universidad Guadalajara 2.6
Draw 3.22
Tepatitlán de Morelos 2.65

Half Time Result

Universidad Guadalajara 3.2
Draw 2.28
Tepatitlán de Morelos 3.2

Double Chance

Universidad Guadalajara or Draw 1.4
Universidad Guadalajara or Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.27
Draw or Tepatitlán de Morelos 1.38

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.55
No 2.25

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.21
Over 2.5 1.85
Over 3.5 2.75
Under 1.5 3.85
Under 2.5 1.98
Under 3.5 1.38

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.35
Over 1.5 2.43

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.13
Over 9.5 1.33
Over 10.5 1.9
Over 11.5 2.06

Universidad Guadalajara Goals

Over 0.5 1.27
Over 1.5 2.08

Tepatitlán de Morelos Goals

Over 0.5 1.24
Over 1.5 2.2

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Breiðablik / Augn U19 vs FH / ÍH U19 20:30 BST | U19 League, Iceland Breiðablik / Augn U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · FH / ÍH U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.3
    91% combined
  • Tartu Welco vs Nõmme Kalju U21 17:00 BST | Esiliiga A, Estonia Tartu Welco have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 home matches this season · Nõmme Kalju U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.22
    90% combined
  • SønderjyskE U19 vs Nordsjaelland U19 15:00 BST | U19 League, Denmark SønderjyskE U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/12 home matches this season · Nordsjaelland U19 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/12 away matches this season · Odds: 1.28
    79% combined
  • Kyzyl-Zhar vs Zhetysu 12:00 BST | Premier League, Kazakhstan Kyzyl-Zhar have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · Zhetysu have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/6 away matches this season · Odds: 2.2
    75% combined
Acca odds (approx) 4.47
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Universidad Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Universidad Guadalajara vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Under 2.5 Goals — Universidad Guadalajara have stayed under 3 goals in 70% of home games, Tepatitlán de Morelos in 80% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

Which team is likely to win, Universidad Guadalajara or Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Universidad Guadalajara have a slight form edge at home (40% wins) over Tepatitlán de Morelos on the road (10% wins) in Liga de Expansión MX. Home advantage could be the deciding factor.

Will both teams score in the match between Universidad Guadalajara and Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Unlikely — Universidad Guadalajara (40% BTTS at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (40% away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches in Liga de Expansión MX. A clean sheet for one side looks the more probable outcome.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Universidad Guadalajara and Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Unlikely — Universidad Guadalajara (30% Over 2.5 at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (20% away) have both featured predominantly in low-scoring matches in Liga de Expansión MX. Under 2.5 Goals looks the stronger play.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Universidad Guadalajara or Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Universidad Guadalajara have the stronger scoring record — 2+ goals in 10% of home games compared to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 0% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Universidad Guadalajara and Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Yes — both Universidad Guadalajara (90% Over 8.5 at home) and Tepatitlán de Morelos (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches in Liga de Expansión MX. Plenty of set-piece opportunities expected.

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