Alebrijes vs Morelia — Free Prediction & Stats

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico
🕒 Saturday 17th January, 01:00 GMT

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Under 3.5 Goals

Alebrijes (30% home wins) hold a slight edge over Morelia on the road (40% away wins), but the difference is minimal. View our Home Win, Away Win and Draw stats for more context.

Both sides regularly see 2+ goals in recent matches (Alebrijes 90% at home, Morelia 80% away), though three or more is less consistent. Over 1.5 Goals is the safer selection here.

Alebrijes often see both teams score at home (70%), while Morelia are less consistent on the road (50%). There's still a reasonable case for BTTS – Yes, mainly driven by the home side's open style.

Alebrijes usually generate 8+ corners at home (80%), while Morelia are less consistent on the road (30%). Over 8.5 Corners may still be viable with the home side driving the count.

Our Prediction: Under 3.5 Goals — Alebrijes have stayed under 4 goals in 80% of home matches, Morelia in 100% of away fixtures. Both sides consistently keep the scoring tight.

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League Table

The full Liga de Expansión MX table for the 2025/2026 season, with Alebrijes (10th) and Morelia (4th) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Liga de Expansión MX 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Jaiba Brava 33 17 10 6 45:32 +13 61
2 Cancún 29 15 8 6 49:27 +22 53
3 Atlante 29 14 8 7 56:28 +28 50
4 Morelia A 31 13 9 9 42:35 +7 48
5 Tepatitlán de Morelos 32 12 12 8 44:29 +15 48
6 Irapuato 33 12 11 10 54:48 +6 47
7 Mineros de Zacatecas 28 10 10 8 45:46 -1 40
8 CA La Paz 27 9 11 7 46:41 +5 38
9 Tapatío 27 10 5 12 47:39 +8 35
10 Universidad Guadalajara 29 9 8 12 35:44 -9 35
11 Venados 27 9 6 12 52:53 -1 33
12 Tlaxcala 27 8 9 10 28:42 -14 33
13 Alebrijes H 27 6 8 13 33:53 -20 26
14 Correcaminos UAT 26 5 7 14 28:56 -28 22
15 Dorados 27 3 6 18 22:53 -31 15

Team Form

Morelia have lost 30% of their away matches this season, while Alebrijes have been more solid at home (20% losses). The home side may find it easier to impose themselves.

Alebrijes (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 3 (30%) 4 (40%)
Drawn 5 (50%) 3 (30%)
Lost 2 (20%) 3 (30%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Alebrijes frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Morelia are less consistent on the road (50%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Alebrijes (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 7 (70%) 5 (50%)

Match Goals

Both sides regularly see 2+ goals in their matches (Alebrijes 90% at home, Morelia 80% away), though 3+ is less consistent. Over 1.5 Goals looks the more reliable selection.

Over Goals

Alebrijes (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 9 (90%) 10 (100%)
Over 1.5 Goals 9 (90%) 8 (80%)
Over 2.5 Goals 4 (40%) 4 (40%)
Over 3.5 Goals 2 (20%) 0 (0%)

Under Goals

Alebrijes (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 1 (10%) 0 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals 1 (10%) 2 (20%)
Under 2.5 Goals 6 (60%) 6 (60%)
Under 3.5 Goals 8 (80%) 10 (100%)

Team Goals

Alebrijes have scored 2+ goals in 20% of home games this season, Morelia in 20% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Alebrijes (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 8 (80%) 9 (90%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 3 (30%) 2 (20%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 1 (10%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Alebrijes (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 8 (80%) 6 (60%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 4 (40%) 3 (30%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 2 (20%) 0 (0%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goal Totals

Alebrijes (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 14 (1.4 avg) 13 (1.3 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 14 (1.4 avg) 9 (0.9 avg)

Match Corners

Alebrijes have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 60% of home games, Morelia in 30% of away games. The full corners breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Alebrijes (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 8 (80%) 3 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners 6 (60%) 3 (30%)
Over 9.5 Corners 3 (30%) 3 (30%)
Over 10.5 Corners 3 (30%) 3 (30%)
Over 11.5 Corners 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 12.5 Corners 1 (10%) 2 (20%)

Team Corners

Alebrijes have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Morelia have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 0% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of away matches.

Corners Won

Alebrijes (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 2 (20%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 3 (30%) 2 (20%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 3 (30%) 0 (0%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 2 (20%) 0 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 0 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Alebrijes (Home Form) Morelia (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 3 (30%) 5 (50%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 4 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 2 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 2 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 2 (20%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Alebrijes and Morelia. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

09 Aug 2025
Morelia
3 – 1 HT: 3-0
Alebrijes
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
09 Feb 2025
Morelia
2 – 1 HT: 1-1
Alebrijes
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
25 Aug 2024
Alebrijes
1 – 1 HT: 1-1
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
13 Apr 2024
Alebrijes
3 – 3 HT: 1-2
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
05 Oct 2023
Morelia
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Alebrijes
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
14 Apr 2023
Morelia
2 – 1 HT: 0-0
Alebrijes
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
22 Oct 2022
Morelia
1 – 1 HT: 1-0
Alebrijes
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
26 Aug 2022
Alebrijes
1 – 3 HT: 0-1
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
29 Jan 2022
Alebrijes
1 – 1 HT: 0-1
Morelia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
24 Sep 2021
Morelia
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
Alebrijes
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Alebrijes vs Morelia across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

Alebrijes 3.9
Draw 3.55
Morelia 2.06

Half Time Result

Alebrijes 3.75
Draw 2.25
Morelia 2.5

Double Chance

Alebrijes or Draw 1.75
Alebrijes or Morelia 1.23
Draw or Morelia 1.2

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.77
No 2.12

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.31
Over 2.5 1.97
Over 3.5 3.45
Under 1.5 4
Under 2.5 1.98
Under 3.5 1.38

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.34
Over 1.5 2.68

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.27
Over 9.5 1.56
Over 10.5 2.46
Over 11.5 2.61

Alebrijes Goals

Over 0.5 1.39
Over 1.5 2.9

Morelia Goals

Over 0.5 1.14
Over 1.5 1.88

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Manchester City U21 vs Norwich City U21 19:00 BST | Premier League 2 Division One, England Manchester City U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/9 home matches this season · Norwich City U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.22
    89% combined
  • Crewe Alexandra U21 vs Queens Park Rangers U21 13:00 BST | Professional Development League, England Crewe Alexandra U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 10/13 home matches this season · Queens Park Rangers U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/13 away matches this season · Odds: 1.33
    81% combined
  • Sheffield United U21 vs Bristol City U21 14:00 BST | Professional Development League, England Sheffield United U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/12 home matches this season · Bristol City U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/13 away matches this season · Odds: 1.25
    76% combined
  • Alianza U20 vs FAS U20 02:00 BST | Reserve League, El Salvador Alianza U20 have seen over 2.5 goals in 18/21 home matches this season · FAS U20 have seen over 2.5 goals in 12/20 away matches this season · Odds: 1.44
    73% combined
Acca odds (approx) 2.92
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Alebrijes vs Morelia Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Alebrijes vs Morelia?

Under 3.5 Goals — Alebrijes have stayed under 4 goals in 80% of home matches, Morelia in 100% of away fixtures. Both sides consistently keep the scoring tight.

Which team is likely to win, Alebrijes or Morelia?

Morelia hold a slight form advantage away (40% wins) over Alebrijes at home (30% wins) in Liga de Expansión MX. A competitive fixture with the visitors potentially having the edge.

Will both teams score in the match between Alebrijes and Morelia?

Possibly — Alebrijes frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Morelia are lower on the road (50%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Alebrijes and Morelia?

Uncertain — Alebrijes have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Morelia in 40% of away games in Liga de Expansión MX. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Alebrijes or Morelia?

Morelia have the stronger away scoring record — 2+ goals in 20% of away games compared to Alebrijes's 20% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Alebrijes and Morelia?

Alebrijes have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 60% of home games, Morelia in 30% of away games in Liga de Expansión MX. The corner stats don't point strongly in either direction.

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Over 2.5 Goals

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Other Upcoming Fixtures

Atlante vs CA La Paz

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Saturday 18th April, 00:00 BST

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Correcaminos UAT vs Alebrijes

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Saturday 18th April, 02:00 BST

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Dorados vs Tapatío

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Saturday 18th April, 04:00 BST

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Tlaxcala vs Venados

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Sunday 19th April, 00:00 BST

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Irapuato vs Mineros de Zacatecas

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Sunday 19th April, 02:00 BST

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Universidad Guadalajara vs Cancún

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Sunday 19th April, 19:00 BST

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Jaiba Brava vs Morelia

📍 Liga de Expansión MX, Mexico

🕒 Monday 20th April, 00:00 BST

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