Toluca vs Atlas — Free Prediction & Stats

📍 Liga MX, Mexico
🕒 Sunday 15th March, 01:00 GMT

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Toluca to Win

Toluca have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 7/10 home matches (70%). Atlas have struggled on the road, winning only 3/10 away games (30%). The hosts look strong favourites — see our Home Win stats.

Toluca frequently feature in matches with 2+ goals at home (90%), while Atlas are more variable on the road (70%). Over 1.5 Goals may still land, mainly driven by the home side.

Toluca often see both teams score at home (70%), while Atlas are less consistent on the road (40%). There's still a reasonable case for BTTS – Yes, mainly driven by the home side's open style.

Both teams regularly see 8+ corners in recent games (60% and 70%) — Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Our Prediction: Toluca to Win — Toluca have won 7/10 home games this season (70%), while Atlas have lost 6/10 away (60%). A strong statistical case for the home side.

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League Table

The full Liga MX table for the 2025/2026 season, with Toluca (2nd) and Atlas (7th) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Liga MX 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Toluca H 40 22 11 7 78:40 +38 77
2 Cruz Azul 38 20 14 4 68:42 +26 74
3 Tigres UANL 40 19 12 9 72:41 +31 69
4 Guadalajara 36 20 6 10 64:42 +22 66
5 América 36 18 8 10 55:38 +17 62
6 Pumas UNAM 35 15 12 8 59:45 +14 57
7 Pachuca 36 16 8 12 50:43 +7 56
8 Monterrey 38 16 7 15 61:58 +3 55
9 Tijuana 37 13 14 10 54:46 +8 53
10 Juárez 38 12 10 16 57:66 -9 46
11 Atlas A 34 11 10 13 40:53 -13 43
12 Querétaro 34 10 10 14 36:50 -14 40
13 Necaxa 34 9 8 17 43:57 -14 35
14 León 34 10 5 19 36:63 -27 35
15 Atlético San Luis 34 10 4 20 49:56 -7 34
16 Santos Laguna 34 9 5 20 42:66 -24 32
17 Mazatlán 34 6 11 17 42:66 -24 29
18 Puebla 34 6 7 21 34:68 -34 25

Team Form

Toluca have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 70% of their home matches compared to Atlas's 30% away. The hosts hold a significant form advantage heading into this fixture.

Toluca (Home Form) Atlas (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 7 (70%) 3 (30%)
Drawn 3 (30%) 1 (10%)
Lost 0 (0%) 6 (60%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Toluca frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Atlas are less consistent on the road (40%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Toluca (Home Form) Atlas (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 7 (70%) 4 (40%)

Match Goals

Toluca have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 50% of home games, Atlas in 30% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Over Goals

Toluca (Home Form) Atlas (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 10 (100%) 10 (100%)
Over 1.5 Goals 9 (90%) 7 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals 5 (50%) 3 (30%)
Over 3.5 Goals 5 (50%) 3 (30%)

Under Goals

Toluca (Home Form) Atlas (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals 1 (10%) 3 (30%)
Under 2.5 Goals 5 (50%) 7 (70%)
Under 3.5 Goals 5 (50%) 7 (70%)

Team Goals

Toluca have scored 2+ goals in 50% of home games this season, Atlas in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Toluca (Home Form) Atlas (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 10 (100%) 7 (70%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 6 (60%) 0 (0%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 5 (50%) 0 (0%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 3 (30%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Toluca (Home Form) Atlas (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 7 (70%) 7 (70%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 1 (10%) 6 (60%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 3 (30%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 1 (10%)

Goal Totals

Toluca (Home Form) Atlas (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 24 (2.4 avg) 7 (0.7 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 8 (0.8 avg) 17 (1.7 avg)

Match Corners

Both Toluca (60% Over 7.5 at home) and Atlas (70% Over 7.5 away) regularly see 8+ corners. A moderate-to-high corner count looks likely in this fixture.

Toluca (Home Form) Atlas (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 6 (60%) 7 (70%)
Over 8.5 Corners 5 (50%) 6 (60%)
Over 9.5 Corners 2 (20%) 3 (30%)
Over 10.5 Corners 1 (10%) 3 (30%)
Over 11.5 Corners 1 (10%) 2 (20%)
Over 12.5 Corners 0 (0%) 1 (10%)

Team Corners

Toluca have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Atlas have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 0% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 40% of away matches.

Corners Won

Toluca (Home Form) Atlas (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 1 (10%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 0 (0%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 0 (0%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 0 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Toluca (Home Form) Atlas (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 2 (20%) 8 (80%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 5 (50%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 4 (40%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 2 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 1 (10%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Toluca and Atlas. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

01 Nov 2025
Atlas
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Toluca
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
13 Apr 2025
Atlas
2 – 3 HT: 2-2
Toluca
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
28 Sep 2024
Toluca
4 – 1 HT: 2-0
Atlas
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
07 Apr 2024
Toluca
4 – 1 HT: 2-0
Atlas
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
26 Aug 2023
Atlas
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Toluca
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
02 Feb 2023
Atlas
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Toluca
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
10 Jul 2022
Toluca
3 – 2 HT: 3-1
Atlas
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
24 Apr 2022
Toluca
2 – 4 HT: 1-2
Atlas
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
21 Aug 2021
Atlas
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Toluca
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
27 Feb 2021
Toluca
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Atlas
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Toluca vs Atlas across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

Toluca 1.6
Draw 4.5
Atlas 6.2

Half Time Result

Toluca 1.9
Draw 2.58
Atlas 7.04

Double Chance

Toluca or Draw 1.05
Toluca or Atlas 1.14
Draw or Atlas 3.02

Both Teams to Score

Yes 2
No 1.74

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.31
Over 2.5 1.94
Over 3.5 3.5
Under 1.5 4.03
Under 2.5 2.06
Under 3.5 1.39

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.34
Over 1.5 2.67

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.33
Over 9.5 1.52
Over 10.5 1.9
Over 11.5 2.54

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.51

Atlas Goals

Over 0.5 1.88
Over 1.5 5.1

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Dacia Unirea Brăila vs Olimpia Râmnicu Sărat 16:00 BST | 3. Liga: Series 2, Romania Dacia Unirea Brăila have seen over 2.5 goals in 11/12 home matches this season · Olimpia Râmnicu Sărat have seen over 2.5 goals in 12/13 away matches this season · Odds: 1.36
    92% combined
  • Mounties Wanderers vs Stanmore Hawks 11:00 BST | New South Wales NPL 3, Australia Mounties Wanderers have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/6 home matches this season · Stanmore Hawks have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.25
    83% combined
  • Prestice vs Petřín Plzeň II 15:00 BST | 4. Liga Division A, Czech Republic Prestice have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/11 home matches this season · Petřín Plzeň II have seen over 2.5 goals in 10/11 away matches this season · Odds: 1.5
    82% combined
  • Louny vs Olympie Brezova 09:15 BST | 4. Liga Division B, Czech Republic Louny have seen over 2.5 goals in 9/11 home matches this season · Olympie Brezova have seen over 2.5 goals in 9/11 away matches this season · Odds: 1.36
    82% combined
Acca odds (approx) 3.47
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Toluca vs Atlas Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Toluca vs Atlas?

Toluca to Win — they've won 7/10 (70%) of their last 10 home games, while Atlas have lost 6/10 (60%) of their last 10 away matches. A strong statistical case for the home side.

Which team is likely to win, Toluca or Atlas?

Toluca hold a clear form advantage — they've won 70% of home games in Liga MX this season, while Atlas have won only 30% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Toluca and Atlas?

Possibly — Toluca frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Atlas are lower on the road (40%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Toluca and Atlas?

Uncertain — Toluca have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 50% of home games, Atlas in 30% of away games in Liga MX. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Toluca or Atlas?

Toluca have the stronger scoring record — 2+ goals in 50% of home games compared to Atlas's 0% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Toluca and Atlas?

Toluca have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 50% of home games, Atlas in 60% of away games in Liga MX. The corner stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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Over 2.5 Goals

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Home Win

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Over 1.5 Goals

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