Derby County vs Swansea City — Free Prediction & Stats

📍 Championship, England
🕒 Saturday 14th February, 15:00 GMT

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Under 3.5 Goals

Derby County (50% home wins) hold a slight edge over Swansea City on the road (30% away wins), but the difference is minimal. View our Home Win, Away Win and Draw stats for more context.

Both sides regularly see 2+ goals in recent matches (Derby County 80% at home, Swansea City 80% away), though three or more is less consistent. Over 1.5 Goals is the safer selection here.

Derby County often see both teams score at home (70%), while Swansea City are less consistent on the road (40%). There's still a reasonable case for BTTS – Yes, mainly driven by the home side's open style.

Both teams regularly see 8+ corners in recent games (80% and 60%) — Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Our Prediction: Under 3.5 Goals — Derby County have stayed under 4 goals in 80% of home matches, Swansea City in 90% of away fixtures. Both sides consistently keep the scoring tight.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

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League Table

The full Championship table for the 2025/2026 season, with Derby County (11th) and Swansea City (15th) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Championship 2025/2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Coventry City 39 24 8 7 81:40 +41 80
2 Millwall 40 21 9 10 55:45 +10 72
3 Middlesbrough 40 20 11 9 60:39 +21 71
4 Ipswich Town 38 19 12 7 67:39 +28 69
5 Hull City 40 20 7 13 63:58 +5 67
6 Wrexham 40 17 13 10 62:53 +9 64
7 Southampton 39 17 12 10 63:48 +15 63
8 Derby County H 39 17 9 13 56:48 +8 60
9 Queens Park Rangers 40 16 8 16 57:62 -5 56
10 Watford 40 14 14 12 51:48 +3 56
11 Norwich City 40 16 7 17 53:47 +6 55
12 Bristol City 40 15 9 16 51:51 0 54
13 Stoke City 40 15 9 16 48:43 +5 54
14 Preston North End 40 13 14 13 47:51 -4 53
15 Birmingham City 40 14 11 15 48:50 -2 53
16 Swansea City A 40 15 8 17 47:52 -5 53
17 Sheffield United 40 15 6 19 57:57 0 51
18 Charlton Athletic 40 12 12 16 37:48 -11 48
19 Leicester City 40 11 13 16 53:62 -9 46
20 Blackburn Rovers 40 12 10 18 37:49 -12 46
21 West Bromwich Albion 40 11 11 18 42:56 -14 44
22 Portsmouth 39 10 11 18 38:55 -17 41
23 Oxford United 40 9 13 18 37:52 -15 40
24 Sheffield Wednesday 40 1 9 30 24:81 -57 12

Team Form

Swansea City have lost 60% of their away matches this season, while Derby County have been more solid at home (30% losses). The home side may find it easier to impose themselves.

Derby County (Home Form) Swansea City (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 5 (50%) 3 (30%)
Drawn 2 (20%) 1 (10%)
Lost 3 (30%) 6 (60%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Derby County frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Swansea City are less consistent on the road (40%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Derby County (Home Form) Swansea City (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 7 (70%) 4 (40%)

Match Goals

Both sides regularly see 2+ goals in their matches (Derby County 80% at home, Swansea City 80% away), though 3+ is less consistent. Over 1.5 Goals looks the more reliable selection.

Over Goals

Derby County (Home Form) Swansea City (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 10 (100%) 10 (100%)
Over 1.5 Goals 8 (80%) 8 (80%)
Over 2.5 Goals 5 (50%) 5 (50%)
Over 3.5 Goals 2 (20%) 1 (10%)

Under Goals

Derby County (Home Form) Swansea City (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 0 (0%) 0 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Under 2.5 Goals 5 (50%) 5 (50%)
Under 3.5 Goals 8 (80%) 9 (90%)

Team Goals

Derby County have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, Swansea City in 10% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Derby County (Home Form) Swansea City (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 10 (100%) 6 (60%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 3 (30%) 3 (30%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 1 (10%) 1 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Derby County (Home Form) Swansea City (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 7 (70%) 8 (80%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 3 (30%) 6 (60%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 1 (10%) 2 (20%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goal Totals

Derby County (Home Form) Swansea City (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 14 (1.4 avg) 10 (1 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 11 (1.1 avg) 16 (1.6 avg)

Match Corners

Both Derby County (80% Over 7.5 at home) and Swansea City (60% Over 7.5 away) regularly see 8+ corners. A moderate-to-high corner count looks likely in this fixture.

Derby County (Home Form) Swansea City (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 8 (80%) 6 (60%)
Over 8.5 Corners 5 (50%) 5 (50%)
Over 9.5 Corners 5 (50%) 5 (50%)
Over 10.5 Corners 2 (20%) 4 (40%)
Over 11.5 Corners 2 (20%) 3 (30%)
Over 12.5 Corners 2 (20%) 3 (30%)

Team Corners

Derby County have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of home matches.

Swansea City have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of away matches.

Corners Won

Derby County (Home Form) Swansea City (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 6 (60%) 4 (40%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 2 (20%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 2 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 1 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 1 (10%) 0 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Derby County (Home Form) Swansea City (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 4 (40%) 7 (70%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 3 (30%) 5 (50%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 2 (20%) 2 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 1 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 1 (10%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Derby County and Swansea City. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

25 Nov 2025
Swansea City
1 – 2 HT: 0-1
Derby County
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
05 Apr 2025
Swansea City
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Derby County
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
27 Nov 2024
Derby County
1 – 2 HT: 0-2
Swansea City
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
09 Apr 2022
Swansea City
2 – 1 HT: 2-1
Derby County
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
02 Oct 2021
Derby County
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Swansea City
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
01 May 2021
Swansea City
2 – 1 HT: 0-0
Derby County
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
16 Dec 2020
Derby County
2 – 0 HT: 2-0
Swansea City
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
08 Feb 2020
Swansea City
2 – 3 HT: 0-1
Derby County
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
10 Aug 2019
Derby County
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Swansea City
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
01 May 2019
Swansea City
1 – 1 HT: 0-1
Derby County
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Derby County vs Swansea City across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet.

Full Time Result

Derby County 2.64
Draw 3.4
Swansea City 3

Half Time Result

Derby County 3.25
Draw 2.16
Swansea City 3.6

Double Chance

Derby County or Draw 1.43
Derby County or Swansea City 1.3
Draw or Swansea City 1.53

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.93
No 2.02

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.43
Over 2.5 2.26
Over 3.5 4.6
Under 1.5 3.2
Under 2.5 1.76
Under 3.5 1.27

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.45
Over 1.5 3.25

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.27
Over 9.5 1.45
Over 10.5 1.74
Over 11.5 3

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 1.3
Over 1.5 2.66
Over 2.5 6

Swansea City Goals

Over 0.5 1.43
Over 1.5 3.03
Over 2.5 11

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Veszprém 2015 W vs Nagykanizsa W 13:00 BST | Nöi NB II, Hungary Veszprém 2015 W have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 home matches this season · Nagykanizsa W have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.3
    90% combined
  • Ursus Warszawa vs Talent Warszawa 10:00 BST | IV Liga: Mazowiecka, Poland Ursus Warszawa have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/8 home matches this season · Talent Warszawa have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.53
    88% combined
  • FC Praha W vs Baník Ostrava W 14:00 BST | First League Women, Czech Republic FC Praha W have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/7 home matches this season · Baník Ostrava W have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/8 away matches this season · Odds: 1.5
    87% combined
  • NSA Sofia W vs Paldin W 14:00 BST | Women's League, Bulgaria NSA Sofia W have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/9 home matches this season · Paldin W have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/9 away matches this season · Odds: 1.4
    83% combined
Acca odds (approx) 4.18
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Derby County vs Swansea City Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Derby County vs Swansea City?

Under 3.5 Goals — Derby County have stayed under 4 goals in 80% of home matches, Swansea City in 90% of away fixtures. Both sides consistently keep the scoring tight.

Which team is likely to win, Derby County or Swansea City?

Derby County have a slight form edge at home (50% wins) over Swansea City on the road (30% wins) in Championship. Home advantage could be the deciding factor.

Will both teams score in the match between Derby County and Swansea City?

Possibly — Derby County frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Swansea City are lower on the road (40%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Derby County and Swansea City?

Uncertain — Derby County have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 50% of home games, Swansea City in 50% of away games in Championship. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Derby County or Swansea City?

Swansea City have the stronger away scoring record — 2+ goals in 10% of away games compared to Derby County's 10% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Derby County and Swansea City?

Derby County have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 50% of home games, Swansea City in 50% of away games in Championship. The corner stats don't point strongly in either direction.

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