Nacional vs Cerro — Free Prediction & Stats

📍 Primera Division, Uruguay
🕒 Saturday 16th May, 01:00 BST

Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Our Prediction

Under 3.5 Goals

Nacional (30% home wins) hold a slight edge over Cerro on the road (20% away wins), but the difference is minimal. View our Home Win, Away Win and Draw stats for more context.

Cerro tend to be involved in matches with 2+ goals away from home (80%), while Nacional are lower (70%). Expect goals on the night, supporting Over 1.5 Goals.

BTTS trends are mixed for this fixture (Nacional 50% at home, Cerro 50% away). Browse the full Both Teams to Score stats for more context.

Both teams regularly see 8+ corners in recent games (60% and 60%) — Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Our Prediction: Under 3.5 Goals — Nacional have stayed under 4 goals in 90% of home matches, Cerro in 80% of away fixtures. Both sides consistently keep the scoring tight.

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League Table

The full Primera Division table for the 2026 season, with Nacional (th) and Cerro (th) highlighted. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

Primera Division 2026

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Racing 13 9 3 1 22:11 +11 30
2 Deportivo Maldonado 13 7 2 4 21:15 +6 23
3 Peñarol 13 7 2 4 19:13 +6 23
4 Albion 13 6 4 3 22:14 +8 22
5 Central Español 13 6 3 4 20:20 0 21
6 Defensor Sporting 13 5 5 3 11:8 +3 20
7 Nacional H 13 6 1 6 20:18 +2 19
8 Montevideo City Torque 13 5 4 4 19:14 +5 19
9 Danubio 13 4 6 3 17:17 0 18
10 Wanderers 13 5 2 6 14:19 -5 17
11 Liverpool 13 4 5 4 17:17 0 17
12 Cerro Largo 13 4 2 7 13:16 -3 14
13 Boston River 13 4 2 7 11:17 -6 14
14 Cerro A 13 2 4 7 8:19 -11 10
15 Atlético Progreso 13 2 4 7 11:20 -9 10
16 Juventud 13 2 3 8 13:20 -7 9

Team Form

Cerro have lost 70% of their away matches this season, while Nacional have been more solid at home (30% losses). The home side may find it easier to impose themselves.

Nacional (Home Form) Cerro (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Won 3 (30%) 2 (20%)
Drawn 4 (40%) 1 (10%)
Lost 3 (30%) 7 (70%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Nacional have seen both teams score in 50% of home games, Cerro in 50% of away games. The full BTTS breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Nacional (Home Form) Cerro (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) 5 (50%) 5 (50%)

Match Goals

Nacional have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 30% of home games, Cerro in 60% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is in the table below.

Over Goals

Nacional (Home Form) Cerro (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals 9 (90%) 10 (100%)
Over 1.5 Goals 7 (70%) 8 (80%)
Over 2.5 Goals 3 (30%) 6 (60%)
Over 3.5 Goals 1 (10%) 2 (20%)

Under Goals

Nacional (Home Form) Cerro (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Under 0.5 Goals 1 (10%) 0 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals 3 (30%) 2 (20%)
Under 2.5 Goals 7 (70%) 4 (40%)
Under 3.5 Goals 9 (90%) 8 (80%)

Team Goals

Nacional have scored 2+ goals in 20% of home games this season, Cerro in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is in the table below.

Goals Scored

Nacional (Home Form) Cerro (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Scored 7 (70%) 6 (60%)
Over 1.5 Goals Scored 3 (30%) 1 (10%)
Over 2.5 Goals Scored 2 (20%) 0 (0%)
Over 3.5 Goals Scored 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Nacional (Home Form) Cerro (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 0.5 Goals Conceded 7 (70%) 9 (90%)
Over 1.5 Goals Conceded 1 (10%) 6 (60%)
Over 2.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 4 (40%)
Over 3.5 Goals Conceded 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Goal Totals

Nacional (Home Form) Cerro (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Total Goals Scored 12 (1.2 avg) 7 (0.7 avg)
Total Goals Conceded 8 (0.8 avg) 19 (1.9 avg)

Match Corners

Both Nacional (60% Over 7.5 at home) and Cerro (60% Over 7.5 away) regularly see 8+ corners. A moderate-to-high corner count looks likely in this fixture.

Nacional (Home Form) Cerro (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 7.5 Corners 6 (60%) 6 (60%)
Over 8.5 Corners 4 (40%) 6 (60%)
Over 9.5 Corners 4 (40%) 2 (20%)
Over 10.5 Corners 3 (30%) 2 (20%)
Over 11.5 Corners 3 (30%) 2 (20%)
Over 12.5 Corners 2 (20%) 1 (10%)

Team Corners

Nacional have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 40% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Cerro have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 30% of away matches.

Corners Won

Nacional (Home Form) Cerro (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 2 (20%)
Over 5.5 Corners For 5 (50%) 1 (10%)
Over 6.5 Corners For 4 (40%) 1 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners For 3 (30%) 1 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners For 3 (30%) 0 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Nacional (Home Form) Cerro (Away Form)
Last X Matches 10 10
Over 4.5 Corners Against 2 (20%) 5 (50%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 4 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against 1 (10%) 3 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 1 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against 0 (0%) 0 (0%)

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Nagykanizsa W vs PELC-Nyárád W 11:00 BST | Nöi NB II, Hungary Nagykanizsa W have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/6 home matches this season · PELC-Nyárád W have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/7 away matches this season · Odds: 1.36
    93% combined
  • Hills United vs Mt Druitt Town 08:00 BST | New South Wales NPL 2, Australia Hills United have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 home matches this season · Mt Druitt Town have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.53
    90% combined
  • Spartaan'20 U21 vs Westlandia U21 11:45 BST | U21 Divisie 4, Netherlands Spartaan'20 U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 9/12 home matches this season · Westlandia U21 have seen over 2.5 goals in 12/12 away matches this season · Odds: 1.22
    87% combined
  • Mendrisio vs YF Juventus 16:00 BST | 1.Liga Classic, Switzerland Mendrisio have seen over 2.5 goals in 9/10 home matches this season · YF Juventus have seen over 2.5 goals in 9/11 away matches this season · Odds: 1.61
    86% combined
Acca odds (approx) 4.09
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Nacional vs Cerro Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Nacional vs Cerro?

Under 3.5 Goals — Nacional have stayed under 4 goals in 90% of home matches, Cerro in 80% of away fixtures. Both sides consistently keep the scoring tight.

Which team is likely to win, Nacional or Cerro?

Nacional have a slight form edge at home (30% wins) over Cerro on the road (20% wins) in Primera Division. Home advantage could be the deciding factor.

Will both teams score in the match between Nacional and Cerro?

Mixed — Nacional have seen BTTS in 50% of home games, Cerro in 50% of away games. The stats don't strongly point either way for this Primera Division fixture.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Nacional and Cerro?

Uncertain — Nacional have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 30% of home games, Cerro in 60% of away games in Primera Division. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Nacional or Cerro?

Nacional have the stronger scoring record — 2+ goals in 20% of home games compared to Cerro's 0% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Nacional and Cerro?

Nacional have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 40% of home games, Cerro in 60% of away games in Primera Division. The corner stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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Over 2.5 Goals

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Home Win

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Over 1.5 Goals

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Steve C. (Birmingham, UK)

"Great site for betting stats! I use it mostly for checking both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, and it’s been really helpful. The first half stats also give me a great edge in making my decisions."

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"The stats on this site are spot on. I’ve been using the home win, away win and over 2.5 goals data for my bets, and it’s been super helpful. It’s great to have all the key stats in one place, from goals to corners. The fact that it’s free is just the icing on the cake!"

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