Thai Premier League · Thailand 🕒 Sunday 22nd February, 11:00 GMT

Ayutthaya United vs BG Pathum United Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Ayutthaya United Home · 8th 4W 0D 6L last 10 home
VS
BG Pathum United Away · 5th 4W 5D 1L last 10 away
Win Probability
Ayutthaya United 41% Draw 26% BG Pathum United 33%
⭐ Our Prediction Under 2.5 Goals See why ↓

Ayutthaya United vs BG Pathum United Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Medium confidence

Ayutthaya United have stayed under 3 goals in 60% of home games, BG Pathum United in 100% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

What the model says
41% Ayutthaya United win 26% Draw 33% BG Pathum United win 54% BTTS 52% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
75% Over 1.5 Goals 70% Under 3.5 Goals

Ayutthaya United sit 8th in the table after 19 games, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per home match this season. BG Pathum United are 5th after 19 games, averaging 1.1 scored and 0.5 conceded on the road. The form figures are level. Ayutthaya United have won 40% of home games, BG Pathum United 40% away. A tight, hard-to-call fixture.

Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches this season. Ayutthaya United have seen 3+ goals in only 40% of home fixtures; BG Pathum United in 0% away. Ayutthaya United average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded at home, BG Pathum United 1.1 and 0.5 on the road. The numbers point toward a tight game.

Both sides have solid defensive records in context. Ayutthaya United have seen BTTS in only 20% of home games (2/10); BG Pathum United in 40% away (4/10). At least one clean sheet looks likely.

Corner counts have been moderate to high for both sides this season. Ayutthaya United see 8+ in 70% of home games, BG Pathum United in 60% away. Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

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League Table

Where Ayutthaya United (8th) and BG Pathum United (5th) sit in the Thai Premier League table for the 2025/2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
4 BG Pathum United A 30 14 10 6 45:29 +16 52
10 Ayutthaya United H 30 8 8 14 34:50 -16 32
View the full Thai Premier League 2025/2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Buriram United 30 22 4 4 76:31 +45 70
2 Port FC 30 18 6 6 59:23 +36 60
3 Ratchaburi Mitrphol FC 30 18 5 7 55:30 +25 59
4 BG Pathum United A 30 14 10 6 45:29 +16 52
5 True Bangkok United 30 13 11 6 43:32 +11 50
6 PT Prachuap FC 30 11 12 7 39:37 +2 45
7 Singha Chiangrai United 30 9 13 8 36:37 -1 40
8 Chonburi FC 30 10 9 11 38:41 -3 39
9 Rayong 30 9 10 11 44:49 -5 37
10 Ayutthaya United H 30 8 8 14 34:50 -16 32
11 Uthai Thani 30 7 10 13 39:44 -5 31
12 Lamphun Warrior 30 4 17 9 35:47 -12 29
13 Sukhothai 30 6 10 14 23:42 -19 28
14 SCG Muangthong United 30 6 8 16 27:52 -25 26
15 Nakhonratchasima Mazda FC 30 6 6 18 20:44 -24 24
16 Kanchanaburi 30 4 11 15 29:54 -25 23

Team Form

Ayutthaya United (40% home wins) and BG Pathum United (40% away wins) are evenly matched on current form. The stats below suggest this could be a closely contested fixture.

H Ayutthaya United: last 10 home A BG Pathum United: last 10 away
Won
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Drawn
H
0/10 (0%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Lost
H
6/10 (60%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Ayutthaya United (20% BTTS at home) and BG Pathum United (40% BTTS away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches this season. A clean sheet for one side looks the more likely outcome.

H Ayutthaya United: last 10 home A BG Pathum United: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
2/10 (20%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Scored Themselves
H
6/10 (60%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 54% · BTTS No 46%

Match Goals

Ayutthaya United have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, BG Pathum United in 0% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is below.

H Ayutthaya United: last 10 home A BG Pathum United: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
10/10 (100%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
10/10 (100%)

Team Goals

Ayutthaya United have scored 2+ goals in 20% of home games this season, BG Pathum United in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Ayutthaya United 1.3 scored · 1.3 conceded per home game BG Pathum United 1.1 scored · 0.5 conceded per away game
H Ayutthaya United: last 10 home A BG Pathum United: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
6/10 (60%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
2/10 (20%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
4/10 (40%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
2/10 (20%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Ayutthaya United 13 scored / 13 conceded at home · BG Pathum United 11 scored / 5 conceded away

Match Corners

Both Ayutthaya United (70% Over 7.5 at home) and BG Pathum United (60% Over 7.5 away) regularly see 8+ corners. A moderate-to-high corner count looks likely in this fixture.

H Ayutthaya United: last 10 home A BG Pathum United: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Team Corners

Ayutthaya United have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of home matches.

BG Pathum United have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of away matches.

H Ayutthaya United: last 10 home A BG Pathum United: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
6/10 (60%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
4/10 (40%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Ayutthaya United and BG Pathum United. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

18 Oct 2025
BG Pathum United
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
Ayutthaya United
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
25 Sep 2019
Ayutthaya United
3 – 3 HT: 0-1
Bangkok Glass
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
29 May 2019
Bangkok Glass
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Ayutthaya United
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Ayutthaya United vs BG Pathum United across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Value Ayutthaya United 2.88 Model: 41%
Draw 3.3 Model: 26%
BG Pathum United 2.38 Model: 33%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.57 Model: 54%
No 2.12 Model: 46%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.29 Model: 75%
Over 2.5 1.94 Model: 52%
Over 3.5 2.7 Model: 30%
Under 1.5 3.6 Model: 25%
Under 2.5 1.89 Model: 48%
Under 3.5 1.35 Model: 70%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.38 Model: 81%
Over 1.5 2.73

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.19 Model: 55%
Over 9.5 1.42 Model: 43%
Over 10.5 2.15 Model: 32%
Over 11.5 2.27 Model: 23%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Value Ayutthaya United 3.45 Model: 33%
Draw 2.2 Model: 41%
BG Pathum United 2.75 Model: 26%

Double Chance

Value Ayutthaya United or Draw 1.57 Model: 67%
Ayutthaya United or BG Pathum United 1.31 Model: 74%
Draw or BG Pathum United 1.3 Model: 59%

Ayutthaya United Goals

Over 0.5 1.33 Model: 74%
Over 1.5 2.43 Model: 41%

BG Pathum United Goals

Over 0.5 1.22 Model: 67%
Over 1.5 1.9 Model: 35%

Ayutthaya United vs BG Pathum United Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Ayutthaya United vs BG Pathum United?

Under 2.5 Goals: Ayutthaya United have stayed under 3 goals in 60% of home games, BG Pathum United in 100% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

Which team is likely to win, Ayutthaya United or BG Pathum United?

Both sides are evenly matched on current form. Ayutthaya United have won 40% of home games, BG Pathum United 40% away in Thai Premier League. This looks like a closely contested fixture.

Will both teams score in the match between Ayutthaya United and BG Pathum United?

Unlikely. Ayutthaya United (20% BTTS at home) and BG Pathum United (40% away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches in Thai Premier League. A clean sheet for one side looks the more probable outcome.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Ayutthaya United and BG Pathum United?

Uncertain. Ayutthaya United have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, BG Pathum United in 0% of away games in Thai Premier League. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Ayutthaya United or BG Pathum United?

Ayutthaya United have the stronger scoring record. 2+ goals in 20% of home games compared to BG Pathum United's 0% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Ayutthaya United and BG Pathum United?

Ayutthaya United have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 50% of home games, BG Pathum United in 50% of away games in Thai Premier League. The corner stats don't point strongly in either direction.

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