Serie A · Italy 🕒 Sunday 17th May, 01:00 BST

Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Genoa Home · 14th 5W 1D 4L last 10 home
VS
AC Milan Away · 4th 6W 1D 3L last 10 away
Win Probability
Genoa 20% Draw 26% AC Milan 54%
⭐ Our Prediction Under 3.5 Goals See why ↓

Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Under 3.5 Goals

Medium confidence

Genoa have stayed under 4 goals in 80% of home matches, AC Milan in 90% of away fixtures. Both sides consistently keep the scoring tight.

What the model says
20% Genoa win 26% Draw 54% AC Milan win 47% BTTS 45% Over 2.5 Goals 0-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
71% Over 1.5 Goals

Genoa sit 14th in the table after 34 games, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per home match this season. AC Milan are 4th after 34 games, averaging 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded on the road. AC Milan carry the better away form into this fixture (6/10, 60%), while Genoa have won 5/10 at home (50%).

Genoa have been involved in high-scoring home games this season. Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 70% of their home fixtures (7/10). AC Milan are lower on the road (40%, 4/10), averaging 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded away from home.

Genoa frequently see both teams score at home (60%, 6/10). AC Milan are lower on the road (40%, 4/10). They've scored in 70% of away games this season, which is the key variable.

Corner data is available but trends are mixed. Genoa see 9+ corners in 0% of home games, AC Milan in 30% away. No strong edge in this market for this fixture.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

Where Genoa (14th) and AC Milan (4th) sit in the Serie A table for the 2025/2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
5 AC Milan A 38 20 10 8 53:35 +18 70
16 Genoa H 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
View the full Serie A 2025/2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Inter 38 27 6 5 89:35 +54 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 58:36 +22 76
3 Roma 38 23 4 11 59:31 +28 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 65:29 +36 71
5 AC Milan A 38 20 10 8 53:35 +18 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 61:34 +27 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 51:36 +15 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 49:46 +3 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 41:40 +1 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
12 Parma 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
13 Torino 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
16 Genoa H 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
19 Hellas Verona 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18

Team Form

AC Milan have shown strong away form this season (60% wins), while Genoa have been less dominant at home (50%). The visitors may have the form edge in this one.

H Genoa: last 10 home A AC Milan: last 10 away
Won
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Drawn
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Lost
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Genoa frequently see both teams score at home (60%), while AC Milan are less consistent on the road (40%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

H Genoa: last 10 home A AC Milan: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
6/10 (60%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Scored Themselves
H
8/10 (80%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Conceded
H
8/10 (80%)
A
7/10 (70%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 47% · BTTS No 53%

Match Goals

Genoa frequently feature in high-scoring home matches (Over 2.5 in 70%), while AC Milan are lower on the road (40%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

H Genoa: last 10 home A AC Milan: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
10/10 (100%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
10/10 (100%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
0/10 (0%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
9/10 (90%)

Team Goals

Genoa have scored 2+ goals in 30% of home games this season, AC Milan in 20% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Genoa 1.7 scored · 1.4 conceded per home game AC Milan 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded per away game
H Genoa: last 10 home A AC Milan: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
8/10 (80%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
8/10 (80%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
5/10 (50%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Genoa 17 scored / 14 conceded at home · AC Milan 14 scored / 8 conceded away

Match Corners

Genoa (20% Over 8.5 at home) and AC Milan (30% away) have both featured in predominantly low-corner matches this season. Set-piece opportunities may be limited.

H Genoa: last 10 home A AC Milan: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
0/10 (0%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
0/10 (0%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
0/10 (0%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Team Corners

Genoa have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

AC Milan have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of away matches.

H Genoa: last 10 home A AC Milan: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Genoa and AC Milan. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

08 Jan 2026
AC Milan
1 – 1 HT: 0-1
Genoa
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
05 May 2025
Genoa
1 – 2 HT: 0-0
Milan
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
15 Dec 2024
Milan
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Genoa
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
05 May 2024
Milan
3 – 3 HT: 1-1
Genoa
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
07 Oct 2023
Genoa
0 – 1 HT: 0-0
Milan
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
15 Apr 2022
Milan
2 – 0 HT: 1-0
Genoa
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
13 Jan 2022
Milan
3 – 1 HT: 0-1
Genoa
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
01 Dec 2021
Genoa
0 – 3 HT: 0-2
Milan
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
18 Apr 2021
Milan
2 – 1 HT: 1-1
Genoa
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
16 Dec 2020
Genoa
2 – 2 HT: 0-0
Milan
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Genoa vs AC Milan across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Value Genoa 5.6 Model: 20%
Draw 4 Model: 26%
AC Milan 1.74 Model: 54%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 2.1 Model: 47%
No 1.87 Model: 53%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.4 Model: 71%
Over 2.5 2 Model: 45%
Over 3.5 4.1 Model: 24%
Under 1.5 3.4 Model: 29%
Under 2.5 1.8 Model: 55%
Under 3.5 1.3 Model: 76%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.48 Model: 77%
Over 1.5 3.31

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.48 Model: 51%
Over 9.5 1.83 Model: 39%
Over 10.5 2.88 Model: 28%
Over 11.5 3.2 Model: 19%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Value Genoa 5.85 Model: 20%
Draw 2.22 Model: 45%
AC Milan 2.41 Model: 35%

Double Chance

Genoa or Draw 2.1 Model: 46%
Genoa or AC Milan 1.28 Model: 74%
Draw or AC Milan 1.18 Model: 80%

Genoa Goals

Over 0.5 1.7 Model: 54%
Over 1.5 4.1 Model: 20%

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5 1.15 Model: 79%
Over 1.5 1.99 Model: 47%

Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Genoa vs AC Milan?

Under 3.5 Goals: Genoa have stayed under 4 goals in 80% of home matches, AC Milan in 90% of away fixtures. Both sides consistently keep the scoring tight.

Which team is likely to win, Genoa or AC Milan?

AC Milan hold a slight form advantage away (60% wins) over Genoa at home (50% wins) in Serie A. A competitive fixture with the visitors potentially having the edge.

Will both teams score in the match between Genoa and AC Milan?

Mixed. Genoa have seen BTTS in 60% of home games, AC Milan in 40% of away games. The stats don't strongly point either way for this Serie A fixture.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Genoa and AC Milan?

Possibly. Genoa frequently feature in high-scoring home games (Over 2.5 in 70%), while AC Milan are lower on the road (40%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Genoa or AC Milan?

Genoa have the stronger scoring record. 2+ goals in 30% of home games compared to AC Milan's 20% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Genoa and AC Milan?

Unlikely. Genoa (20% Over 8.5 at home) and AC Milan (30% away) have both featured in predominantly low-corner matches in Serie A.

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