Liga MX · Mexico 🕒 Sunday 19th July, 02:00 BST

Guadalajara vs Toluca Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Guadalajara Home 7W 2D 1L last 10 home
VS
Toluca Away 3W 1D 6L last 10 away
Win Probability
Guadalajara 45% Draw 25% Toluca 29%
⭐ Our Prediction Guadalajara to Win See why ↓

Guadalajara vs Toluca Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Guadalajara to Win

High confidence

Guadalajara have won 7/10 home games this season (70%), while Toluca have lost 6/10 away (60%). A strong statistical case for the home side.

What the model says
45% Guadalajara win 25% Draw 29% Toluca win 56% BTTS 54% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
77% Over 1.5 Goals 68% Under 3.5 Goals

Guadalajara average 2.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per home match this season. Toluca average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded in away fixtures. The home record backs Guadalajara strongly. They've won 7/10 home games (70%), while Toluca have lost 6/10 on the road (60%).

Toluca have featured in high-scoring away games this season. Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 70% of their away fixtures (7/10). Guadalajara are lower at home (60%, 6/10), averaging 2.3 scored and 0.5 conceded.

Toluca regularly see both teams score in away fixtures (60%, 6/10). Guadalajara are lower at home (30%, 3/10). They've conceded in 30% of home games, which keeps BTTS in play.

Corner counts have been moderate to high for both sides this season. Guadalajara see 8+ in 90% of home games, Toluca in 60% away. Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

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League Table

Where Guadalajara and Toluca sit in the Liga MX table for the 2026/2027 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
4 Guadalajara H 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
5 Toluca A 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
View the full Liga MX 2026/2027 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Pachuca 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
2 Querétaro 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
3 Puebla 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
4 Guadalajara H 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
5 Toluca A 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
6 Necaxa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
7 Pumas UNAM 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
8 Tigres UANL 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
9 Atlético San Luis 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
10 Cruz Azul 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
11 Tijuana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
12 América 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
13 Santos Laguna 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
14 Juárez 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
15 Atlante 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
16 Monterrey 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
17 León 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
18 Atlas 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0

Team Form

Guadalajara have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 70% of their home matches compared to Toluca's 30% away. The hosts hold a significant form advantage heading into this fixture.

H Guadalajara: last 10 home A Toluca: last 10 away
Won
H
7/10 (70%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Drawn
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Lost
H
1/10 (10%)
A
6/10 (60%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Toluca regularly see both teams score in away matches (60%), while Guadalajara are lower at home (30%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

H Guadalajara: last 10 home A Toluca: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Scored Themselves
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Conceded
H
3/10 (30%)
A
8/10 (80%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 56% · BTTS No 44%

Match Goals

Toluca regularly feature in high-scoring away games (Over 2.5 in 70%), while Guadalajara are lower at home (60%). The visitors' attacking output suggests multiple goals are likely.

H Guadalajara: last 10 home A Toluca: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
9/10 (90%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
7/10 (70%)

Team Goals

Guadalajara have scored 2+ goals in 30% of home games this season, Toluca in 40% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Guadalajara 2.3 scored · 0.5 conceded per home game Toluca 1.7 scored · 1.7 conceded per away game
H Guadalajara: last 10 home A Toluca: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
2/10 (20%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
3/10 (30%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Season totals: Guadalajara 23 scored / 5 conceded at home · Toluca 17 scored / 17 conceded away

Match Corners

Guadalajara regularly reach high corner counts at home (70%), while Toluca are lower on the road (60%). The home side are likely to dominate the corner count in this fixture.

H Guadalajara: last 10 home A Toluca: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
9/10 (90%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Team Corners

Guadalajara win 6+ corners in 70% of home games, generating decent attacking corner opportunities, and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Toluca have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 40% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of away matches.

H Guadalajara: last 10 home A Toluca: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
9/10 (90%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
7/10 (70%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
7/10 (70%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
6/10 (60%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Guadalajara vs Toluca across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Guadalajara 2.2 Model: 45%
Draw 3.5 Model: 25%
Toluca 3 Model: 29%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.57 Model: 56%
No 2.25 Model: 44%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.2 Model: 77%
Over 2.5 1.7 Model: 54%
Over 3.5 2.62 Model: 32%
Under 1.5 4.33 Model: 23%
Under 2.5 2.1 Model: 46%
Under 3.5 1.44 Model: 68%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.3 Model: 82%
Over 1.5 2.5
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Guadalajara 2.75 Model: 38%
Draw 2.3 Model: 40%
Toluca 3.4 Model: 22%

Double Chance

Guadalajara or Draw 1.36 Model: 71%
Guadalajara or Toluca 1.28 Model: 75%
Draw or Toluca 1.66 Model: 55%

Guadalajara Goals

Over 0.5 1.2 Model: 77%
Over 1.5 1.9 Model: 46%

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5 1.28 Model: 66%
Over 1.5 2.37 Model: 33%

Guadalajara vs Toluca Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Guadalajara vs Toluca?

Guadalajara to Win: Guadalajara have won 7/10 home games this season (70%), while Toluca have lost 6/10 away (60%). A strong statistical case for the home side.

Which team is likely to win, Guadalajara or Toluca?

Guadalajara hold a clear form advantage. They've won 70% of home games in Liga MX this season, while Toluca have won only 30% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Guadalajara and Toluca?

Mixed. Guadalajara have seen BTTS in 30% of home games, Toluca in 60% of away games. The stats don't strongly point either way for this Liga MX fixture.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Guadalajara and Toluca?

Possibly. Toluca regularly feature in high-scoring away games (Over 2.5 in 70%), while Guadalajara are lower at home (60%). The visitors' attacking output suggests multiple goals are likely.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Guadalajara or Toluca?

Toluca have the stronger away scoring record. 2+ goals in 40% of away games compared to Guadalajara's 30% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Guadalajara and Toluca?

Possibly. Guadalajara regularly reach high corner counts at home (70%), while Toluca are lower on the road (60%). The home side may drive the corner count in this fixture.

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Guadalajara vs Toluca

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🕒 Sunday 19th July, 02:00 BST

Match Stats

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Scott T. (Manchester, UK)

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Luke H. (Cardiff, Wales)

"Great site for betting stats! I use it mostly for checking both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, and it’s been really helpful. The first half stats also give me a great edge in making my decisions."

Finn B. (Leeds, UK)

"The stats on this site are spot on. I’ve been using the home win, away win and over 2.5 goals data for my bets, and it’s been super helpful. It’s great to have all the key stats in one place, from goals to corners. The fact that some stats are free is just the icing on the cake!"

James T. (London, UK)

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