Champions League · Europe 🕒 Wednesday 28th January, 20:00 GMT

Napoli vs Chelsea Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Napoli Home · 25th 6W 2D 2L last 10 home
VS
Chelsea Away · 8th 4W 1D 5L last 10 away
Win Probability
Napoli 38% Draw 26% Chelsea 36%
⭐ Our Prediction Over 2.5 Goals See why ↓

Napoli vs Chelsea Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

High confidence

Napoli have seen 3+ goals in 60% of home games, Chelsea in 90% of away games. The numbers suggest an open, high-scoring fixture.

What the model says
38% Napoli win 26% Draw 36% Chelsea win 52% BTTS 49% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
75% Under 3.5 Goals 73% Over 1.5 Goals

Napoli sit 25th in the table, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per home match this season. Chelsea are 8th, averaging 2 scored and 2 conceded on the road. Napoli have the stronger home record this season (6/10, 60%) against a Chelsea side who've won 4/10 away (40%).

Chelsea have featured in high-scoring away games this season — Over 2.5 Goals in 90% of their away fixtures (9/10). Napoli are lower at home (60%, 6/10), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.1 conceded.

Both teams have regularly seen both sides score this season — Napoli in 60% of home games (6/10), Chelsea in 70% away (7/10). Napoli have scored in 90% of home fixtures; Chelsea in 80% of away games.

Corner counts have been moderate to high for both sides this season — Napoli see 8+ in 70% of home games, Chelsea in 70% away. Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

View Today’s Tips

League Table

Where Napoli (25th) and Chelsea (8th) sit in the Champions League table for the 2025/2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
20 Chelsea A 10 5 1 4 19:18 +1 16
37 Napoli H 8 2 2 4 9:15 -6 8
View the full Champions League 2025/2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Arsenal 15 11 4 0 30:7 +23 37
2 Paris Saint Germain 17 10 5 2 45:23 +22 35
3 FC Bayern München 14 11 1 2 43:20 +23 34
4 Real Madrid 14 9 0 5 33:20 +13 27
5 Qarabağ 16 8 1 7 31:35 -4 25
6 Atlético de Madrid 16 7 3 6 35:28 +7 24
7 FC Barcelona 12 7 2 3 32:20 +12 23
8 Club Brugge 14 7 2 5 32:27 +5 23
9 Pafos FC 14 6 5 3 16:14 +2 23
10 FC København 14 6 4 4 23:22 +1 22
11 Newcastle United 12 6 3 3 29:18 +11 21
12 Liverpool 12 7 0 5 24:13 +11 21
13 Bodø / Glimt 14 6 3 5 28:24 +4 21
14 Tottenham Hotspur 10 6 2 2 22:14 +8 20
15 Sporting CP 12 6 2 4 22:15 +7 20
16 Benfica 14 6 1 7 16:15 +1 19
17 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 12 4 5 3 16:17 -1 17
18 Juventus 10 4 4 2 19:17 +2 16
19 Manchester City 10 5 1 4 16:14 +2 16
20 Chelsea A 10 5 1 4 19:18 +1 16
21 Galatasaray 12 5 1 6 17:20 -3 16
22 Atalanta 12 5 1 6 16:23 -7 16
23 Inter 10 5 0 5 17:12 +5 15
24 Borussia Dortmund 10 4 2 4 22:21 +1 14
25 Ferencvárosi 6 4 1 1 13:9 +4 13
26 Malmö FF 6 4 1 1 11:8 +3 13
27 Kairat 16 3 4 9 14:26 -12 13
28 Olympiacos F.C. 10 3 3 4 10:16 -6 12
29 Crvena Zvezda 6 3 2 1 12:6 +6 11
30 Monaco 10 2 5 3 12:19 -7 11
31 Skendija 79 6 3 1 2 6:8 -2 10
32 Ludogorets 6 2 3 1 6:6 0 9
33 Olympique Marseille 8 3 0 5 11:14 -3 9
34 Union Saint-Gilloise 8 3 0 5 8:17 -9 9
35 PSV 8 2 2 4 16:16 0 8
36 Athletic Club 8 2 2 4 9:14 -5 8
37 Napoli H 8 2 2 4 9:15 -6 8
38 Lech Poznań 4 2 1 1 10:5 +5 7
39 Slovan Bratislava 4 2 1 1 7:3 +4 7
40 KuPS 4 2 1 1 3:3 0 7
41 Zrinjski 4 2 1 1 6:7 -1 7
42 Rangers 6 2 1 3 8:12 -4 7
43 Dynamo Kyiv 4 2 0 2 6:3 +3 6
44 Viktoria Plzeň 4 2 0 2 5:6 -1 6
45 Drita 4 2 0 2 4:5 -1 6
46 Rīgas FS 4 2 0 2 3:5 -2 6
47 Lincoln Red Imps 4 2 0 2 5:8 -3 6
48 Ajax 8 2 0 6 8:21 -13 6
49 Salzburg 4 1 1 2 7:6 +1 4
50 Fenerbahçe 4 1 1 2 6:5 +1 4
51 Noah 4 1 1 2 7:8 -1 4
52 Shelbourne 4 1 1 2 2:5 -3 4
53 Eintracht Frankfurt 8 1 1 6 10:21 -11 4
54 Žalgiris 2 1 0 1 2:2 0 3
55 FCSB 4 1 0 3 5:6 -1 3
56 Inter Club d'Escaldes 2 1 0 1 3:4 -1 3
57 Servette 2 1 0 1 2:3 -1 3
58 Feyenoord 2 1 0 1 4:6 -2 3
59 Breidablik 4 1 0 3 6:9 -3 3
60 Sturm Graz 2 1 0 1 2:6 -4 3
61 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2 1 0 1 1:5 -4 3
62 Hamrun Spartans 4 1 0 3 2:8 -6 3
63 Slavia Praha 8 0 3 5 5:19 -14 3
64 Celtic 2 0 2 0 0:0 0 2
65 Dinamo Minsk 2 0 1 1 2:3 -1 1
66 Budućnost 2 0 1 1 2:3 -1 1
67 Maccabi Tel Aviv 2 0 1 1 1:2 -1 1
68 The New Saints 2 0 1 1 1:2 -1 1
69 Linfield 2 0 1 1 1:2 -1 1
70 Milsami 2 0 1 1 0:1 -1 1
71 Basel 2 0 1 1 1:3 -2 1
72 Rijeka 2 0 1 1 1:3 -2 1
73 Panathinaikos 2 0 1 1 1:3 -2 1
74 Olimpija 2 0 1 1 1:3 -2 1
75 Brann 2 0 1 1 2:5 -3 1
76 Villarreal 8 0 1 7 5:18 -13 1
77 Differdange 03 2 0 0 2 2:4 -2 0
78 Víkingur 2 0 0 2 2:4 -2 0
79 Levadia 2 0 0 2 0:2 -2 0
80 Virtus 2 0 0 2 1:4 -3 0
81 FC Iberia 1999 2 0 0 2 2:6 -4 0
82 Nice 2 0 0 2 0:4 -4 0

Team Form

Napoli hold a clear edge in home form this season (60% wins), while Chelsea have been less consistent on the road (40%). Home advantage could be decisive here.

H Napoli — last 10 home A Chelsea — last 10 away
Won
H
6/10 (60%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Drawn
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Lost
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Napoli have seen both teams score in 60% of home games this season, Chelsea in 70% of away games. Both sides have been regularly finding the net — the stats support a goal at each end.

H Napoli — last 10 home A Chelsea — last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
6/10 (60%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Scored Themselves
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Conceded
H
7/10 (70%)
A
9/10 (90%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 52% · BTTS No 48%

Match Goals

Chelsea regularly feature in high-scoring away games (Over 2.5 in 90%), while Napoli are lower at home (60%). The visitors' attacking output suggests multiple goals are likely.

H Napoli — last 10 home A Chelsea — last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
10/10 (100%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)

Team Goals

Napoli have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, Chelsea in 40% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Napoli 1.7 scored · 1.1 conceded per home game Chelsea 2 scored · 2 conceded per away game
H Napoli — last 10 home A Chelsea — last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
3/10 (30%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
7/10 (70%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Season totals: Napoli 17 scored / 11 conceded at home · Chelsea 20 scored / 20 conceded away

Match Corners

Both Napoli (70% Over 7.5 at home) and Chelsea (70% Over 7.5 away) regularly see 8+ corners. A moderate-to-high corner count looks likely in this fixture.

H Napoli — last 10 home A Chelsea — last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Team Corners

Napoli have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 50% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Chelsea have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of away matches.

H Napoli — last 10 home A Chelsea — last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
6/10 (60%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
6/10 (60%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
6/10 (60%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
5/10 (50%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Napoli and Chelsea. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up — use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

14 Mar 2012
Chelsea
4 – 1 HT: 0-0
Napoli
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
21 Feb 2012
Napoli
3 – 1 HT: 2-1
Chelsea
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Napoli vs Chelsea across a range of markets — full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change — always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Value Napoli 3.7 Model: 38%
Draw 3.56 Model: 26%
Chelsea 2.16 Model: 36%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.8 Model: 52%
Value No 2.22 Model: 48%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.28 Model: 73%
Over 2.5 1.94 Model: 49%
Over 3.5 3.3 Model: 25%
Value Under 1.5 4.12 Model: 27%
Value Under 2.5 2.06 Model: 51%
Value Under 3.5 1.42 Model: 75%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.37 Model: 81%
Over 1.5 2.55

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.3 Model: 51%
Over 9.5 1.52 Model: 39%
Over 10.5 1.86 Model: 29%
Over 11.5 3.4 Model: 21%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Value Napoli 4.02 Model: 32%
Draw 2.3 Model: 39%
Chelsea 2.8 Model: 29%

Double Chance

Value Napoli or Draw 1.75 Model: 64%
Napoli or Chelsea 1.34 Model: 74%
Draw or Chelsea 1.34 Model: 62%

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5 1.36 Model: 70%
Value Over 1.5 2.96 Model: 37%

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5 1.21 Model: 68%
Over 1.5 2.02 Model: 34%

Today's Football Acca

Statistical picks combined into a daily accumulator. Each selection backed by match data and recent form analysis.

⚽ Today's Over 2.5 Goals Acca
  • Linero vs Karlskrona 13:00 BST | Division 2: Sodra Gotaland, Sweden Linero have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 home matches this season · Karlskrona have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.53
    90% combined
  • Phoenix vs Tammeka II 10:30 BST | Esiliiga B, Estonia Phoenix have seen over 2.5 goals in 8/8 home matches this season · Tammeka II have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/5 away matches this season · Odds: 1.2
    90% combined
  • Toronto II vs Connecticut United 20:00 BST | MLS Next Pro, United States Toronto II have seen over 2.5 goals in 5/6 home matches this season · Connecticut United have seen over 2.5 goals in 7/8 away matches this season · Odds: 1.6
    85% combined
  • Enkoping vs Vasalund 15:00 BST | Ettan: North, Sweden Enkoping have seen over 2.5 goals in 4/6 home matches this season · Vasalund have seen over 2.5 goals in 6/6 away matches this season · Odds: 1.44
    83% combined
Acca odds (approx) 4.23
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Napoli vs Chelsea Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Napoli vs Chelsea?

Over 2.5 Goals — Napoli have seen 3+ goals in 60% of home games, Chelsea in 90% of away games. The numbers suggest an open, high-scoring fixture.

Which team is likely to win, Napoli or Chelsea?

Napoli hold a clear form advantage — they've won 60% of home games in Champions League this season, while Chelsea have won only 40% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Napoli and Chelsea?

Possibly — Chelsea regularly see both teams score away (70%), while Napoli are lower at home (60%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Napoli and Chelsea?

Possibly — Chelsea regularly feature in high-scoring away games (Over 2.5 in 90%), while Napoli are lower at home (60%). The visitors' attacking output suggests multiple goals are likely.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Napoli or Chelsea?

Chelsea have the stronger away scoring record — 2+ goals in 40% of away games compared to Napoli's 10% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Napoli and Chelsea?

Napoli have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 50% of home games, Chelsea in 60% of away games in Champions League. The corner stats don't point strongly in either direction.

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