Serie B · Italy 🕒 Saturday 4th October, 16:15 BST

Spezia vs Palermo Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Spezia Home · 19th 4W 3D 3L last 10 home
VS
Palermo Away · 3rd 3W 3D 4L last 10 away
Win Probability
Spezia 39% Draw 29% Palermo 32%
⭐ Our Prediction Over 1.5 Goals See why ↓

Spezia vs Palermo Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

Medium confidence

Spezia see 2+ goals in 80% of home games, Palermo in 80% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

What the model says
39% Spezia win 29% Draw 32% Palermo win 51% BTTS 44% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
77% Under 3.5 Goals

Spezia sit 19th in the table after 2 games, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per home match this season. Palermo are 3rd after 2 games, averaging 1.1 scored and 1.5 conceded on the road. Spezia have won 4/10 home games (40%) this season; Palermo have won 3/10 on the road (30%). There's no dominant edge either way.

Both sides consistently see 2+ goals: Spezia in 80% of home games, Palermo in 80% away. Three or more is less certain, but Over 1.5 Goals is well supported by the data from both sides.

Spezia frequently see both teams score at home (60%, 6/10). Palermo are lower on the road (40%, 4/10). They've scored in 70% of away games this season, which is the key variable.

Corner counts have been moderate to high for both sides this season. Spezia see 8+ in 70% of home games, Palermo in 90% away. Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

Where Spezia (19th) and Palermo (3rd) sit in the Serie B table for the 2025/2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
4 Palermo A 40 21 12 7 63:36 +27 75
20 Spezia H 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35
View the full Serie B 2025/2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Monza 42 24 11 7 67:37 +30 83
2 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 +46 82
3 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 +42 81
4 Palermo A 40 21 12 7 63:36 +27 75
5 Catanzaro 43 18 14 11 70:55 +15 68
6 Modena 39 15 10 14 49:37 +12 55
7 Juve Stabia 41 12 19 10 48:49 -1 55
8 Avellino 39 13 10 16 43:58 -15 49
9 Calcio Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 -10 46
10 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 -11 46
11 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 -12 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 -5 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 -13 44
14 Südtirol 40 8 19 13 38:48 -10 43
15 Virtus Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 -15 42
16 Bari 1908 40 10 12 18 38:60 -22 42
17 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 -7 41
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 -20 37
19 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 -15 35
20 Spezia H 38 8 11 19 43:59 -16 35

Team Form

Palermo have lost 40% of their away matches this season, while Spezia have been more solid at home (30% losses). The home side may find it easier to impose themselves.

H Spezia: last 10 home A Palermo: last 10 away
Won
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Drawn
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Lost
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Spezia frequently see both teams score at home (60%), while Palermo are less consistent on the road (40%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

H Spezia: last 10 home A Palermo: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
6/10 (60%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Scored Themselves
H
7/10 (70%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Conceded
H
9/10 (90%)
A
7/10 (70%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 51% · BTTS No 49%

Match Goals

Both sides regularly see 2+ goals in their matches (Spezia 80% at home, Palermo 80% away), though 3+ is less consistent. Over 1.5 Goals looks the more reliable selection.

H Spezia: last 10 home A Palermo: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
10/10 (100%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
9/10 (90%)

Team Goals

Spezia have scored 2+ goals in 20% of home games this season, Palermo in 20% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Spezia 1.7 scored · 1.3 conceded per home game Palermo 1.1 scored · 1.5 conceded per away game
H Spezia: last 10 home A Palermo: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
7/10 (70%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
4/10 (40%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
2/10 (20%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
9/10 (90%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
4/10 (40%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Spezia 17 scored / 13 conceded at home · Palermo 11 scored / 15 conceded away

Match Corners

Palermo frequently reach high corner counts away from home (70%), while Spezia are lower at home (50%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

H Spezia: last 10 home A Palermo: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
4/10 (40%)

Team Corners

Spezia have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of home matches.

Palermo have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 40% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 30% of away matches.

H Spezia: last 10 home A Palermo: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
6/10 (60%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
6/10 (60%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Spezia and Palermo. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

9th Feb, 2025
Spezia
2 – 2 HT: 0-1
Palermo
Corners 13–3 Cards 1–4 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
1st Dec, 2024
Palermo
2 – 0 HT: 1-0
Spezia
Corners 6–5 Cards 4–4 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
1st May, 2024
Spezia
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
Palermo
Corners 5–3 Cards 3–4 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
23rd Oct, 2023
Palermo
2 – 2 HT: 0-1
Spezia
Corners 4–5 Cards 3–7 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
1st May, 2019
Palermo
2 – 2 HT: 2-2
Spezia
Corners 8–2 Cards 3–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
23rd Dec, 2018
Spezia
1 – 1 HT: 1-1
Palermo
Corners 5–7 Cards 2–4 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
20th Jan, 2018
Spezia
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Palermo
Corners 7–4 Cards 1–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
26th Aug, 2017
Palermo
2 – 0 HT: 1-0
Spezia
Corners 5–6 Cards 2–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
30th Nov, 2016
Palermo
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Spezia
Corners 7–4 Cards 1–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
22nd Feb, 2014
Palermo
1 – 1 HT: 1-0
Spezia
Corners – Cards 0–0 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Spezia vs Palermo across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Value Spezia 2.78 Model: 39%
Draw 3.1 Model: 29%
Palermo 3.05 Model: 32%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 2 Model: 51%
No 1.96 Model: 49%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.46 Model: 70%
Value Over 2.5 2.46 Model: 44%
Value Over 3.5 4.85 Model: 23%
Under 1.5 3 Model: 30%
Under 2.5 1.6 Model: 56%
Under 3.5 1.25 Model: 77%

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.53
Over 1.5 3.34

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.32 Model: 57%
Over 9.5 1.56 Model: 46%
Over 10.5 2.21 Model: 35%
Over 11.5 2.26 Model: 26%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Spezia 3.59 Model: 28%
Draw 2.04 Model: 48%
Palermo 3.68 Model: 24%

Double Chance

Spezia or Draw 1.45 Model: 68%
Spezia or Palermo 1.41 Model: 71%
Draw or Palermo 1.48 Model: 61%

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5 1.39 Model: 71%
Value Over 1.5 3.02 Model: 36%
Over 2.5 5.1

Palermo Goals

Over 0.5 1.43 Model: 66%
Over 1.5 2.8 Model: 31%
Over 2.5 7.1

Spezia vs Palermo Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Spezia vs Palermo?

Over 1.5 Goals: Spezia see 2+ goals in 80% of home games, Palermo in 80% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

Which team is likely to win, Spezia or Palermo?

Spezia have a slight form edge at home (40% wins) over Palermo on the road (30% wins) in Serie B. Home advantage could be the deciding factor.

Will both teams score in the match between Spezia and Palermo?

Mixed. Spezia have seen BTTS in 60% of home games, Palermo in 40% of away games. The stats don't strongly point either way for this Serie B fixture.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Spezia and Palermo?

Uncertain. Spezia have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Palermo in 50% of away games in Serie B. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Spezia or Palermo?

Palermo have the stronger away scoring record. 2+ goals in 20% of away games compared to Spezia's 20% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Spezia and Palermo?

Possibly. Palermo frequently reach high corner counts away (70%), while Spezia are lower at home (50%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

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