Serie A · Brazil 🕒 Thursday 16th July, 23:30 BST

Vitória vs Vasco da Gama Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Vitória Home 9W 1D 0L last 10 home
VS
Vasco da Gama Away 2W 5D 3L last 10 away
Win Probability
Vitória 47% Draw 27% Vasco da Gama 26%
⭐ Our Prediction Over 8.5 Corners See why ↓

Vitória vs Vasco da Gama Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Over 8.5 Corners

Medium confidence

Vitória see 9+ corners in 60% of home games, Vasco da Gama in 80% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

What the model says
47% Vitória win 27% Draw 26% Vasco da Gama win 51% BTTS 47% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
76% Under 3.5 Goals 73% Over 1.5 Goals

Vitória average 2.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per home match this season. Vasco da Gama average 1.3 scored and 1.6 conceded in away fixtures. Vitória have the stronger home record this season (9/10, 90%) against a Vasco da Gama side who've won 2/10 away (20%).

Both sides consistently see 2+ goals: Vitória in 80% of home games, Vasco da Gama in 80% away. Three or more is less certain, but Over 1.5 Goals is well supported by the data from both sides.

Vasco da Gama regularly see both teams score in away fixtures (70%, 7/10). Vitória are lower at home (50%, 5/10). They've conceded in 50% of home games, which keeps BTTS in play.

Corner counts have been moderate to high for both sides this season. Vitória see 8+ in 60% of home games, Vasco da Gama in 80% away. Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

Where Vitória and Vasco da Gama sit in the Serie A table for the 2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
13 Vitória H 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
17 Vasco da Gama A 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
View the full Serie A 2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Palmeiras 18 12 5 1 30:13 +17 41
2 Flamengo 17 10 4 3 31:16 +15 34
3 Fluminense 18 9 4 5 28:23 +5 31
4 Athletico PR 18 9 3 6 24:18 +6 30
5 Bragantino 18 9 2 7 25:19 +6 29
6 Bahia 17 7 5 5 25:23 +2 26
7 Coritiba 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
8 São Paulo 18 7 4 7 23:20 +3 25
9 Atlético Mineiro 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
10 Corinthians 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
11 Cruzeiro 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
12 Botafogo 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
13 Vitória H 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
14 Internacional 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
15 Santos 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
16 Grêmio 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
17 Vasco da Gama A 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
18 Remo 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
19 Mirassol 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
20 Chapecoense 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9

Team Form

Vitória have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 90% of their home matches compared to Vasco da Gama's 20% away. The hosts hold a significant form advantage heading into this fixture.

H Vitória: last 10 home A Vasco da Gama: last 10 away
Won
H
9/10 (90%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Drawn
H
1/10 (10%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Lost
H
0/10 (0%)
A
3/10 (30%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Vasco da Gama regularly see both teams score in away matches (70%), while Vitória are lower at home (50%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

H Vitória: last 10 home A Vasco da Gama: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
5/10 (50%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Scored Themselves
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Conceded
H
5/10 (50%)
A
8/10 (80%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 51% · BTTS No 49%

Match Goals

Both sides regularly see 2+ goals in their matches (Vitória 80% at home, Vasco da Gama 80% away), though 3+ is less consistent. Over 1.5 Goals looks the more reliable selection.

H Vitória: last 10 home A Vasco da Gama: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
9/10 (90%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
6/10 (60%)

Team Goals

Vitória have scored 2+ goals in 40% of home games this season, Vasco da Gama in 10% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Vitória 2.6 scored · 0.6 conceded per home game Vasco da Gama 1.3 scored · 1.6 conceded per away game
H Vitória: last 10 home A Vasco da Gama: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
8/10 (80%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
4/10 (40%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
5/10 (50%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Season totals: Vitória 26 scored / 6 conceded at home · Vasco da Gama 13 scored / 16 conceded away

Match Corners

Vasco da Gama frequently reach high corner counts away from home (80%), while Vitória are lower at home (60%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

H Vitória: last 10 home A Vasco da Gama: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
6/10 (60%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
6/10 (60%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Team Corners

Vitória have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Vasco da Gama have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of away matches.

H Vitória: last 10 home A Vasco da Gama: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
6/10 (60%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
5/10 (50%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Vitória and Vasco da Gama. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

05 Oct 2025
Vasco da Gama
4 – 3 HT: 1-2
Vitória
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
10 May 2025
Vitória
2 – 1 HT: 0-1
Vasco da Gama
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
01 Sep 2024
Vitória
0 – 1 HT: 0-0
Vasco da Gama
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
12 May 2024
Vasco da Gama
3 – 1 HT: 1-0
Vitória
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
11 Nov 2021
Vasco da Gama
0 – 3 HT: 0-1
Vitória
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
07 Aug 2021
Vitória
0 – 1 HT: 0-1
Vasco da Gama
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
09 Sep 2018
Vitória
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Vasco da Gama
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
13 May 2018
Vasco da Gama
2 – 3 HT: 1-1
Vitória
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
05 Nov 2017
Vasco da Gama
1 – 1 HT: 1-0
Vitória
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
13 Jul 2017
Vitória
1 – 4 HT: 0-1
Vasco da Gama
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Vitória vs Vasco da Gama across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Value Vitória 2.4 Model: 47%
Draw 3.2 Model: 27%
Vasco da Gama 2.9 Model: 26%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.8 Model: 51%
No 1.95 Model: 49%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.32 Model: 73%
Over 2.5 2.13 Model: 47%
Over 3.5 3.62 Model: 24%
Under 1.5 2.89 Model: 27%
Under 2.5 1.72 Model: 53%
Under 3.5 1.25 Model: 76%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.44 Model: 77%
Over 1.5 3.25

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.5 Model: 63%
Over 9.5 1.83 Model: 51%
Over 10.5 2.37 Model: 40%
Over 11.5 3.25 Model: 29%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Vitória 3.1 Model: 30%
Draw 2.1 Model: 47%
Vasco da Gama 3.6 Model: 23%

Double Chance

Value Vitória or Draw 1.4 Model: 74%
Vitória or Vasco da Gama 1.36 Model: 73%
Draw or Vasco da Gama 1.53 Model: 53%

Vitória Goals

Over 0.5 1.3 Model: 77%
Value Over 1.5 2.5 Model: 43%

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5 1.4 Model: 62%
Over 1.5 2.75 Model: 26%

Vitória vs Vasco da Gama Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Vitória vs Vasco da Gama?

Over 8.5 Corners: Vitória see 9+ corners in 60% of home games, Vasco da Gama in 80% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

Which team is likely to win, Vitória or Vasco da Gama?

Vitória hold a clear form advantage. They've won 90% of home games in Serie A this season, while Vasco da Gama have won only 20% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Vitória and Vasco da Gama?

Possibly. Vasco da Gama regularly see both teams score away (70%), while Vitória are lower at home (50%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Vitória and Vasco da Gama?

Uncertain. Vitória have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 50% of home games, Vasco da Gama in 50% of away games in Serie A. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Vitória or Vasco da Gama?

Vitória have the stronger scoring record. 2+ goals in 40% of home games compared to Vasco da Gama's 10% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Vitória and Vasco da Gama?

Possibly. Vasco da Gama frequently reach high corner counts away (80%), while Vitória are lower at home (60%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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