Liga Profesional de Fútbol · Argentina 🕒 Sunday 22nd February, 21:30 GMT

Vélez Sarsfield vs River Plate Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Vélez Sarsfield Home · 2nd 5W 3D 2L last 10 home
VS
River Plate Away · 10th 5W 3D 2L last 10 away
Win Probability
Vélez Sarsfield 38% Draw 29% River Plate 32%
⭐ Our Prediction Under 2.5 Goals See why ↓

Vélez Sarsfield vs River Plate Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Medium confidence

Vélez Sarsfield have stayed under 3 goals in 70% of home games, River Plate in 80% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

What the model says
38% Vélez Sarsfield win 29% Draw 32% River Plate win 48% BTTS 42% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
78% Under 3.5 Goals 67% Over 1.5 Goals

Vélez Sarsfield sit 2nd in the table after 3 games, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per home match this season. River Plate are 10th after 3 games, averaging 1.1 scored and 0.6 conceded on the road. The form figures are level. Vélez Sarsfield have won 50% of home games, River Plate 50% away. A tight, hard-to-call fixture.

Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches this season. Vélez Sarsfield have seen 3+ goals in only 30% of home fixtures; River Plate in 20% away. Vélez Sarsfield average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded at home, River Plate 1.1 and 0.6 on the road. The numbers point toward a tight game.

Both sides have solid defensive records in context. Vélez Sarsfield have seen BTTS in only 40% of home games (4/10); River Plate in 40% away (4/10). At least one clean sheet looks likely.

Corner counts have been moderate to high for both sides this season. Vélez Sarsfield see 8+ in 60% of home games, River Plate in 70% away. Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

Where Vélez Sarsfield (2nd) and River Plate (10th) sit in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol table for the 2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 River Plate A 20 11 3 6 29:17 +12 36
9 Vélez Sarsfield H 17 7 7 3 18:13 +5 28
View the full Liga Profesional de Fútbol 2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 River Plate A 20 11 3 6 29:17 +12 36
2 Belgrano 20 10 6 4 24:16 +8 36
3 Argentinos Juniors 19 10 6 3 21:14 +7 36
4 Independiente Rivadavia 17 10 4 3 30:17 +13 34
5 Rosario Central 19 10 4 5 25:19 +6 34
6 Estudiantes 17 9 4 4 19:8 +11 31
7 Boca Juniors 17 8 6 3 24:12 +12 30
8 Gimnasia La Plata 18 9 2 7 20:21 -1 29
9 Vélez Sarsfield H 17 7 7 3 18:13 +5 28
10 Talleres Córdoba 17 7 5 5 17:14 +3 26
11 Huracán 18 6 7 5 20:16 +4 25
12 Unión Santa Fe 18 6 6 6 26:23 +3 24
13 Independiente 17 6 6 5 25:23 +2 24
14 Racing Club 18 6 6 6 19:17 +2 24
15 Lanús 17 6 6 5 18:17 +1 24
16 San Lorenzo 17 5 8 4 16:16 0 23
17 Instituto 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
18 Barracas Central 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
19 Tigre 16 4 8 4 18:15 +3 20
20 Defensa y Justicia 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
21 Sarmiento 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
22 Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
23 Banfield 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
24 Platense 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
25 Central Cordoba SdE 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
26 Newell's Old Boys 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
27 Atlético Tucumán 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
28 Deportivo Riestra 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
29 Aldosivi 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
30 Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5

Team Form

Vélez Sarsfield (50% home wins) and River Plate (50% away wins) are evenly matched on current form. The stats below suggest this could be a closely contested fixture.

H Vélez Sarsfield: last 10 home A River Plate: last 10 away
Won
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Drawn
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Lost
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Vélez Sarsfield (40% BTTS at home) and River Plate (40% BTTS away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches this season. A clean sheet for one side looks the more likely outcome.

H Vélez Sarsfield: last 10 home A River Plate: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Scored Themselves
H
7/10 (70%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
6/10 (60%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 48% · BTTS No 52%

Match Goals

Vélez Sarsfield (30% Over 2.5 at home) and River Plate (20% away) have both featured predominantly in low-scoring matches this season. Under 2.5 Goals looks the stronger play.

H Vélez Sarsfield: last 10 home A River Plate: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
9/10 (90%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
10/10 (100%)

Team Goals

Vélez Sarsfield have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, River Plate in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Vélez Sarsfield 1.3 scored · 0.7 conceded per home game River Plate 1.1 scored · 0.6 conceded per away game
H Vélez Sarsfield: last 10 home A River Plate: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
7/10 (70%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Vélez Sarsfield 13 scored / 7 conceded at home · River Plate 11 scored / 6 conceded away

Match Corners

Both Vélez Sarsfield (60% Over 7.5 at home) and River Plate (70% Over 7.5 away) regularly see 8+ corners. A moderate-to-high corner count looks likely in this fixture.

H Vélez Sarsfield: last 10 home A River Plate: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
6/10 (60%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Team Corners

Vélez Sarsfield have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of home matches.

River Plate have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of away matches.

H Vélez Sarsfield: last 10 home A River Plate: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Vélez Sarsfield and River Plate. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

16 Nov 2025
Vélez Sarsfield
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
River Plate
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
04 May 2025
River Plate
4 – 1 HT: 3-1
Vélez Sarsfield
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19 Oct 2024
River Plate
1 – 1 HT: 0-1
Vélez Sarsfield
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
04 Feb 2024
River Plate
5 – 0 HT: 4-0
Vélez Sarsfield
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
03 Sep 2023
Vélez Sarsfield
2 – 0 HT: 1-0
River Plate
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
30 May 2023
Vélez Sarsfield
2 – 2 HT: 0-1
River Plate
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
17 Jul 2022
Vélez Sarsfield
2 – 2 HT: 1-2
River Plate
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
07 Jul 2022
River Plate
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Vélez Sarsfield
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
30 Jun 2022
Vélez Sarsfield
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
River Plate
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
05 Feb 2022
River Plate
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Vélez Sarsfield
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Vélez Sarsfield vs River Plate across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Value Vélez Sarsfield 3.03 Model: 38%
Draw 2.81 Model: 29%
River Plate 2.7 Model: 32%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 2.18 Model: 48%
No 1.72 Model: 52%

Total Goals

Value Over 1.5 1.56 Model: 67%
Value Over 2.5 2.79 Model: 42%
Value Over 3.5 5.57 Model: 22%
Under 1.5 2.54 Model: 33%
Under 2.5 1.42 Model: 58%
Under 3.5 1.11 Model: 78%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.59 Model: 70%
Over 1.5 3.66

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.31 Model: 43%
Over 9.5 1.59 Model: 31%
Over 10.5 2.48 Model: 22%
Over 11.5 2.76 Model: 14%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Vélez Sarsfield 3.83 Model: 26%
Draw 1.92 Model: 51%
River Plate 3.66 Model: 22%

Double Chance

Vélez Sarsfield or Draw 1.48 Model: 68%
Vélez Sarsfield or River Plate 1.44 Model: 71%
Draw or River Plate 1.42 Model: 62%

Vélez Sarsfield Goals

Over 0.5 1.5 Model: 68%
Value Over 1.5 3.15 Model: 34%

River Plate Goals

Over 0.5 1.46 Model: 64%
Over 1.5 3.05 Model: 30%

Vélez Sarsfield vs River Plate Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs River Plate?

Under 2.5 Goals: Vélez Sarsfield have stayed under 3 goals in 70% of home games, River Plate in 80% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

Which team is likely to win, Vélez Sarsfield or River Plate?

Both sides are evenly matched on current form. Vélez Sarsfield have won 50% of home games, River Plate 50% away in Liga Profesional de Fútbol. This looks like a closely contested fixture.

Will both teams score in the match between Vélez Sarsfield and River Plate?

Unlikely. Vélez Sarsfield (40% BTTS at home) and River Plate (40% away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches in Liga Profesional de Fútbol. A clean sheet for one side looks the more probable outcome.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Vélez Sarsfield and River Plate?

Unlikely. Vélez Sarsfield (30% Over 2.5 at home) and River Plate (20% away) have both featured predominantly in low-scoring matches in Liga Profesional de Fútbol. Under 2.5 Goals looks the stronger play.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Vélez Sarsfield or River Plate?

Vélez Sarsfield have the stronger scoring record. 2+ goals in 10% of home games compared to River Plate's 0% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Vélez Sarsfield and River Plate?

Vélez Sarsfield have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 40% of home games, River Plate in 50% of away games in Liga Profesional de Fútbol. The corner stats don't point strongly in either direction.

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