Serie A · Brazil 🕒 Tuesday 21st July, 23:30 BST

Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Atlético Mineiro Home 8W 1D 1L last 10 home
VS
Bahia Away 4W 1D 5L last 10 away
Win Probability
Atlético Mineiro 54% Draw 25% Bahia 21%
⭐ Our Prediction Over 8.5 Corners See why ↓

Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Over 8.5 Corners

Medium confidence

Atlético Mineiro see 9+ corners in 70% of home games, Bahia in 70% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

What the model says
54% Atlético Mineiro win 25% Draw 21% Bahia win 51% BTTS 48% Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 most likely score
Also worth a look
74% Under 3.5 Goals 73% Over 1.5 Goals

Atlético Mineiro average 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per home match this season. Bahia average 1.4 scored and 1.7 conceded in away fixtures. Atlético Mineiro have the stronger home record this season (8/10, 80%) against a Bahia side who've won 4/10 away (40%).

Atlético Mineiro have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 50% of home games this season (5/10); Bahia in 60% away (6/10). Atlético Mineiro average 1.5 scored and 0.9 conceded at home, Bahia 1.4 and 1.7 on the road.

Bahia regularly see both teams score in away fixtures (60%, 6/10). Atlético Mineiro are lower at home (50%, 5/10). They've conceded in 60% of home games, which keeps BTTS in play.

Both teams see 9+ corners in the majority of their games: Atlético Mineiro at 70% at home (7/10), Bahia at 70% away (7/10). Over 8.5 Corners is well supported by the data.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

Where Atlético Mineiro and Bahia sit in the Serie A table for the 2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
6 Bahia A 17 7 5 5 25:23 +2 26
9 Atlético Mineiro H 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
View the full Serie A 2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Palmeiras 18 12 5 1 30:13 +17 41
2 Flamengo 17 10 4 3 31:16 +15 34
3 Fluminense 18 9 4 5 28:23 +5 31
4 Athletico PR 18 9 3 6 24:18 +6 30
5 Bragantino 18 9 2 7 25:19 +6 29
6 Bahia A 17 7 5 5 25:23 +2 26
7 Coritiba 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
8 São Paulo 18 7 4 7 23:20 +3 25
9 Atlético Mineiro H 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
10 Corinthians 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
11 Cruzeiro 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
12 Botafogo 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
13 Vitória 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
14 Internacional 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
15 Santos 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
16 Grêmio 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
17 Vasco da Gama 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
18 Remo 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
19 Mirassol 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
20 Chapecoense 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9

Team Form

Atlético Mineiro have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 80% of their home matches compared to Bahia's 40% away. The hosts hold a significant form advantage heading into this fixture.

H Atlético Mineiro: last 10 home A Bahia: last 10 away
Won
H
8/10 (80%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Drawn
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Lost
H
1/10 (10%)
A
5/10 (50%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Bahia regularly see both teams score in away matches (60%), while Atlético Mineiro are lower at home (50%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

H Atlético Mineiro: last 10 home A Bahia: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Scored Themselves
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
8/10 (80%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 51% · BTTS No 49%

Match Goals

Atlético Mineiro have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 50% of home games, Bahia in 60% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is below.

H Atlético Mineiro: last 10 home A Bahia: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
10/10 (100%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
6/10 (60%)

Team Goals

Atlético Mineiro have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, Bahia in 10% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Atlético Mineiro 1.5 scored · 0.9 conceded per home game Bahia 1.4 scored · 1.7 conceded per away game
H Atlético Mineiro: last 10 home A Bahia: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
5/10 (50%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Season totals: Atlético Mineiro 15 scored / 9 conceded at home · Bahia 14 scored / 17 conceded away

Match Corners

Both Atlético Mineiro (70% Over 8.5 at home) and Bahia (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches. Expect plenty of set-piece opportunities from both sides.

H Atlético Mineiro: last 10 home A Bahia: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
3/10 (30%)

Team Corners

Atlético Mineiro have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of home matches.

Bahia have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 50% of away matches.

H Atlético Mineiro: last 10 home A Bahia: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
3/10 (30%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
3/10 (30%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Atlético Mineiro and Bahia. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

05 Nov 2025
Atlético Mineiro
3 – 0 HT: 0-0
Bahia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
13 Jul 2025
Bahia
2 – 1 HT: 0-0
Atlético Mineiro
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
15 Sep 2024
Bahia
3 – 0 HT: 0-0
Atlético Mineiro
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
02 Jun 2024
Atlético Mineiro
1 – 1 HT: 0-0
Bahia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
07 Dec 2023
Bahia
4 – 1 HT: 2-1
Atlético Mineiro
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
13 Aug 2023
Atlético Mineiro
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Bahia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
02 Dec 2021
Bahia
2 – 3 HT: 0-0
Atlético Mineiro
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
05 Aug 2021
Bahia
2 – 1 HT: 2-0
Atlético Mineiro
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
29 Jul 2021
Atlético Mineiro
2 – 0 HT: 1-0
Bahia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
25 Jul 2021
Atlético Mineiro
3 – 0 HT: 0-0
Bahia
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Value Atlético Mineiro 2.1 Model: 54%
Draw 3.3 Model: 25%
Bahia 3.4 Model: 21%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.75 Model: 51%
No 2 Model: 49%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.28 Model: 73%
Over 2.5 1.93 Model: 48%
Over 3.5 3.4 Model: 26%
Under 1.5 3.75 Model: 27%
Under 2.5 1.93 Model: 52%
Under 3.5 1.33 Model: 74%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.36 Model: 81%
Over 1.5 2.75

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.5 Model: 63%
Over 9.5 1.83 Model: 52%
Over 11.5 3.25 Model: 30%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Value Atlético Mineiro 2.75 Model: 40%
Draw 2.2 Model: 41%
Bahia 4 Model: 19%

Double Chance

Value Atlético Mineiro or Draw 1.3 Model: 79%
Atlético Mineiro or Bahia 1.33 Model: 75%
Draw or Bahia 1.7 Model: 46%

Atlético Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5 1.22 Model: 80%
Over 1.5 2 Model: 48%

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5 1.4 Model: 57%
Over 1.5 2.75 Model: 23%

Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia?

Over 8.5 Corners: Atlético Mineiro see 9+ corners in 70% of home games, Bahia in 70% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

Which team is likely to win, Atlético Mineiro or Bahia?

Atlético Mineiro hold a clear form advantage. They've won 80% of home games in Serie A this season, while Bahia have won only 40% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Atlético Mineiro and Bahia?

Mixed. Atlético Mineiro have seen BTTS in 50% of home games, Bahia in 60% of away games. The stats don't strongly point either way for this Serie A fixture.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Atlético Mineiro and Bahia?

Uncertain. Atlético Mineiro have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 50% of home games, Bahia in 60% of away games in Serie A. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Atlético Mineiro or Bahia?

Bahia have the stronger away scoring record. 2+ goals in 10% of away games compared to Atlético Mineiro's 10% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Atlético Mineiro and Bahia?

Yes. Both Atlético Mineiro (70% Over 8.5 at home) and Bahia (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches in Serie A. Plenty of set-piece opportunities expected.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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Other Upcoming Fixtures

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Fluminense vs Bragantino

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Mirassol vs Grêmio

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Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia

📍 Serie A, Brazil

🕒 Tuesday 21st July, 23:30 BST

Match Stats

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David H. (Glasgow, UK)

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Luke H. (Cardiff, Wales)

"The stats on this site are spot on. I’ve been using the home win, away win and over 2.5 goals data for my bets, and it’s been super helpful. It’s great to have all the key stats in one place, from goals to corners. The fact that some stats are free is just the icing on the cake!"

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