Serie A · Brazil 🕒 Saturday 18th July, 00:00 BST

Mirassol vs Grêmio Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Mirassol Home 6W 1D 3L last 10 home
VS
Grêmio Away 2W 4D 4L last 10 away
Win Probability
Mirassol 46% Draw 29% Grêmio 25%
⭐ Our Prediction Under 2.5 Goals See why ↓

Mirassol vs Grêmio Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Medium confidence

Mirassol have stayed under 3 goals in 70% of home games, Grêmio in 60% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

What the model says
46% Mirassol win 29% Draw 25% Grêmio win 47% BTTS 42% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
79% Under 3.5 Goals 68% Over 1.5 Goals

Mirassol average 1.2 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per home match this season. Grêmio average 0.9 scored and 0.8 conceded in away fixtures. Mirassol have the stronger home record this season (6/10, 60%) against a Grêmio side who've won 2/10 away (20%).

Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches this season. Mirassol have seen 3+ goals in only 30% of home fixtures; Grêmio in 40% away. Mirassol average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded at home, Grêmio 0.9 and 0.8 on the road. The numbers point toward a tight game.

Both sides have solid defensive records in context. Mirassol have seen BTTS in only 40% of home games (4/10); Grêmio in 30% away (3/10). At least one clean sheet looks likely.

Corner counts have been moderate to high for both sides this season. Mirassol see 8+ in 70% of home games, Grêmio in 60% away. Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

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League Table

Where Mirassol and Grêmio sit in the Serie A table for the 2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
16 Grêmio A 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
19 Mirassol H 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
View the full Serie A 2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Palmeiras 18 12 5 1 30:13 +17 41
2 Flamengo 17 10 4 3 31:16 +15 34
3 Fluminense 18 9 4 5 28:23 +5 31
4 Athletico PR 18 9 3 6 24:18 +6 30
5 Bragantino 18 9 2 7 25:19 +6 29
6 Bahia 17 7 5 5 25:23 +2 26
7 Coritiba 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
8 São Paulo 18 7 4 7 23:20 +3 25
9 Atlético Mineiro 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
10 Corinthians 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
11 Cruzeiro 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
12 Botafogo 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
13 Vitória 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
14 Internacional 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
15 Santos 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
16 Grêmio A 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
17 Vasco da Gama 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
18 Remo 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
19 Mirassol H 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
20 Chapecoense 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9

Team Form

Mirassol hold a clear edge in home form this season (60% wins), while Grêmio have been less consistent on the road (20%). Home advantage could be decisive here.

H Mirassol: last 10 home A Grêmio: last 10 away
Won
H
6/10 (60%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Drawn
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Lost
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Mirassol (40% BTTS at home) and Grêmio (30% BTTS away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches this season. A clean sheet for one side looks the more likely outcome.

H Mirassol: last 10 home A Grêmio: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Scored Themselves
H
8/10 (80%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 47% · BTTS No 53%

Match Goals

Mirassol have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 30% of home games, Grêmio in 40% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is below.

H Mirassol: last 10 home A Grêmio: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
10/10 (100%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
0/10 (0%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
10/10 (100%)
A
10/10 (100%)

Team Goals

Mirassol have scored 2+ goals in 0% of home games this season, Grêmio in 20% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Mirassol 1.2 scored · 0.7 conceded per home game Grêmio 0.9 scored · 0.8 conceded per away game
H Mirassol: last 10 home A Grêmio: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
8/10 (80%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
4/10 (40%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
0/10 (0%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Mirassol 12 scored / 7 conceded at home · Grêmio 9 scored / 8 conceded away

Match Corners

Mirassol regularly reach high corner counts at home (70%), while Grêmio are lower on the road (50%). The home side are likely to dominate the corner count in this fixture.

H Mirassol: last 10 home A Grêmio: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Team Corners

Mirassol win 6+ corners in 60% of home games, generating decent attacking corner opportunities, and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Grêmio have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 0% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 50% of away matches.

H Mirassol: last 10 home A Grêmio: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
6/10 (60%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
7/10 (70%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
6/10 (60%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
6/10 (60%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Mirassol vs Grêmio across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Mirassol 2 Model: 46%
Draw 3.3 Model: 29%
Grêmio 3.7 Model: 25%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.95 Model: 47%
No 1.8 Model: 53%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.4 Model: 68%
Over 2.5 2.2 Model: 42%
Over 3.5 3.9 Model: 21%
Under 1.5 2.87 Model: 32%
Under 2.5 1.65 Model: 58%
Under 3.5 1.25 Model: 79%

Mirassol vs Grêmio Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Mirassol vs Grêmio?

Under 2.5 Goals: Mirassol have stayed under 3 goals in 70% of home games, Grêmio in 60% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

Which team is likely to win, Mirassol or Grêmio?

Mirassol hold a clear form advantage. They've won 60% of home games in Serie A this season, while Grêmio have won only 20% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Mirassol and Grêmio?

Unlikely. Mirassol (40% BTTS at home) and Grêmio (30% away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches in Serie A. A clean sheet for one side looks the more probable outcome.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Mirassol and Grêmio?

Uncertain. Mirassol have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 30% of home games, Grêmio in 40% of away games in Serie A. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Mirassol or Grêmio?

Grêmio have the stronger away scoring record. 2+ goals in 20% of away games compared to Mirassol's 0% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Mirassol and Grêmio?

Possibly. Mirassol regularly reach high corner counts at home (70%), while Grêmio are lower on the road (50%). The home side may drive the corner count in this fixture.

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Scott T. (Manchester, UK)

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