Veikkausliiga · Finland 🕒 Saturday 11th July, 15:00 BST

Gnistan vs Mariehamn Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Gnistan Home 4W 3D 3L last 10 home
VS
Mariehamn Away 2W 2D 6L last 10 away
Win Probability
Gnistan 50% Draw 25% Mariehamn 25%
⭐ Our Prediction Over 2.5 Goals See why ↓

Gnistan vs Mariehamn Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

High confidence

Gnistan have seen 3+ goals in 70% of home games, Mariehamn in 60% of away games. The numbers suggest an open, high-scoring fixture.

What the model says
50% Gnistan win 25% Draw 25% Mariehamn win 57% BTTS 56% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
78% Over 1.5 Goals 67% Under 3.5 Goals

Gnistan average 1.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per home match this season. Mariehamn average 1.1 scored and 1.5 conceded in away fixtures. Gnistan have won 4/10 home games (40%) this season; Mariehamn have won 2/10 on the road (20%). There's no dominant edge either way.

Gnistan have been involved in high-scoring home games this season. Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 70% of their home fixtures (7/10). Mariehamn are lower on the road (60%, 6/10), averaging 1.1 scored and 1.5 conceded away from home.

Both sides have solid defensive records in context. Gnistan have seen BTTS in only 40% of home games (4/10); Mariehamn in 40% away (4/10). At least one clean sheet looks likely.

Both teams see 9+ corners in the majority of their games: Gnistan at 70% at home (7/10), Mariehamn at 70% away (7/10). Over 8.5 Corners is well supported by the data.

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League Table

Where Gnistan and Mariehamn sit in the Veikkausliiga table for the 2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
6 Gnistan H 12 5 3 4 18:16 +2 18
12 Mariehamn A 12 0 4 8 6:23 -17 4
View the full Veikkausliiga 2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Inter Turku 14 7 6 1 21:12 +9 27
2 KuPS 14 7 6 1 23:15 +8 27
3 Oulu 13 8 1 4 19:14 +5 25
4 HJK 13 6 4 3 25:13 +12 22
5 VPS 12 5 5 2 16:10 +6 20
6 Gnistan H 12 5 3 4 18:16 +2 18
7 TPS 12 4 4 4 12:11 +1 16
8 Ilves 13 4 3 6 22:25 -3 15
9 Lahti 12 3 3 6 14:14 0 12
10 SJK 12 2 4 6 13:19 -6 10
11 Jaro 13 1 5 7 11:28 -17 8
12 Mariehamn A 12 0 4 8 6:23 -17 4

Team Form

Mariehamn have lost 60% of their away matches this season, while Gnistan have been more solid at home (30% losses). The home side may find it easier to impose themselves.

H Gnistan: last 10 home A Mariehamn: last 10 away
Won
H
4/10 (40%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Drawn
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Lost
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Gnistan (40% BTTS at home) and Mariehamn (40% BTTS away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches this season. A clean sheet for one side looks the more likely outcome.

H Gnistan: last 10 home A Mariehamn: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Scored Themselves
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
9/10 (90%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 57% · BTTS No 43%

Match Goals

Gnistan frequently feature in high-scoring home matches (Over 2.5 in 70%), while Mariehamn are lower on the road (60%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

H Gnistan: last 10 home A Mariehamn: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
9/10 (90%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
8/10 (80%)

Team Goals

Gnistan have scored 2+ goals in 20% of home games this season, Mariehamn in 10% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Gnistan 1.6 scored · 1.7 conceded per home game Mariehamn 1.1 scored · 1.5 conceded per away game
H Gnistan: last 10 home A Mariehamn: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
5/10 (50%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Gnistan 16 scored / 17 conceded at home · Mariehamn 11 scored / 15 conceded away

Match Corners

Both Gnistan (70% Over 8.5 at home) and Mariehamn (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches. Expect plenty of set-piece opportunities from both sides.

H Gnistan: last 10 home A Mariehamn: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
8/10 (80%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
3/10 (30%)

Team Corners

Gnistan have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 40% of home matches.

Mariehamn have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 50% of away matches.

H Gnistan: last 10 home A Mariehamn: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
6/10 (60%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
0/10 (0%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
0/10 (0%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
7/10 (70%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
6/10 (60%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
4/10 (40%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Gnistan vs Mariehamn Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?

Over 2.5 Goals: Gnistan have seen 3+ goals in 70% of home games, Mariehamn in 60% of away games. The numbers suggest an open, high-scoring fixture.

Which team is likely to win, Gnistan or Mariehamn?

Gnistan have a slight form edge at home (40% wins) over Mariehamn on the road (20% wins) in Veikkausliiga. Home advantage could be the deciding factor.

Will both teams score in the match between Gnistan and Mariehamn?

Unlikely. Gnistan (40% BTTS at home) and Mariehamn (40% away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches in Veikkausliiga. A clean sheet for one side looks the more probable outcome.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Gnistan and Mariehamn?

Possibly. Gnistan frequently feature in high-scoring home games (Over 2.5 in 70%), while Mariehamn are lower on the road (60%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Gnistan or Mariehamn?

Gnistan have the stronger scoring record. 2+ goals in 20% of home games compared to Mariehamn's 10% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Gnistan and Mariehamn?

Yes. Both Gnistan (70% Over 8.5 at home) and Mariehamn (70% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches in Veikkausliiga. Plenty of set-piece opportunities expected.

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