World Cup · World 🕒 Wednesday 1st July, 02:00 BST

Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Mexico Home · 1st 7W 2D 0L last 9 home
VS
Ecuador Away · 2nd 0W 6D 2L last 8 away
Win Probability
Mexico 47% Draw 30% Ecuador 23%
⭐ Our Prediction Under 2.5 Goals See why ↓

Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Medium confidence

Mexico have stayed under 3 goals in 66.67% of home games, Ecuador in 100% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

What the model says
47% Mexico win 30% Draw 23% Ecuador win 40% BTTS 35% Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 most likely score
Also worth a look
84% Under 3.5 Goals

Mexico sit 1st in the table, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per home match this season. Ecuador are 2nd, averaging 0.1 scored and 0.4 conceded on the road. Mexico have the stronger home record this season (7/9, 78%) against a Ecuador side who've won 0/8 away (0%).

Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches this season. Mexico have seen 3+ goals in only 33% of home fixtures; Ecuador in 0% away. Mexico average 1.7 scored and 0.3 conceded at home, Ecuador 0.1 and 0.4 on the road. The numbers point toward a tight game.

Both sides have solid defensive records in context. Mexico have seen BTTS in only 22% of home games (2/9); Ecuador in 13% away (1/8). At least one clean sheet looks likely.

Corner data is available but trends are mixed. Mexico see 9+ corners in 11% of home games, Ecuador in 13% away. No strong edge in this market for this fixture.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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Team Form

Mexico have been in exceptional home form this season, winning 77.78% of their home matches compared to Ecuador's 0% away. The hosts hold a significant form advantage heading into this fixture.

H Mexico: last 9 home A Ecuador: last 8 away
Won
H
7/9 (77.78%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Drawn
H
2/9 (22.22%)
A
6/8 (75%)
Lost
H
0/9 (0%)
A
2/8 (25%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Mexico (22.22% BTTS at home) and Ecuador (12.5% BTTS away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches this season. A clean sheet for one side looks the more likely outcome.

H Mexico: last 9 home A Ecuador: last 8 away
Both Teams Scored
H
2/9 (22.22%)
A
1/8 (12.5%)
Scored Themselves
H
7/9 (77.78%)
A
1/8 (12.5%)
Conceded
H
2/9 (22.22%)
A
3/8 (37.5%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 40% · BTTS No 60%

Match Goals

Mexico (33.33% Over 2.5 at home) and Ecuador (0% away) have both featured predominantly in low-scoring matches this season. Under 2.5 Goals looks the stronger play.

H Mexico: last 9 home A Ecuador: last 8 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
5/9 (55.56%)
A
1/8 (12.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
3/9 (33.33%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
2/9 (22.22%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
7/9 (77.78%)
A
3/8 (37.5%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
2/9 (22.22%)
A
5/8 (62.5%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
4/9 (44.44%)
A
7/8 (87.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
6/9 (66.67%)
A
8/8 (100%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
7/9 (77.78%)
A
8/8 (100%)

Team Goals

Mexico have scored 2+ goals in 22.22% of home games this season, Ecuador in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Mexico 1.67 scored · 0.33 conceded per home game Ecuador 0.13 scored · 0.38 conceded per away game
H Mexico: last 9 home A Ecuador: last 8 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
5/9 (55.56%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
1/9 (11.11%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
7/9 (77.78%)
A
1/8 (12.5%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
5/9 (55.56%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
2/9 (22.22%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
1/9 (11.11%)
A
0/8 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
2/9 (22.22%)
A
3/8 (37.5%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
1/9 (11.11%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
0/9 (0%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/9 (0%)
A
0/8 (0%)

Season totals: Mexico 15 scored / 3 conceded at home · Ecuador 1 scored / 3 conceded away

Match Corners

Mexico (22.22% Over 8.5 at home) and Ecuador (12.5% away) have both featured in predominantly low-corner matches this season. Set-piece opportunities may be limited.

H Mexico: last 9 home A Ecuador: last 8 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
2/9 (22.22%)
A
1/8 (12.5%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
1/9 (11.11%)
A
1/8 (12.5%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
2/9 (22.22%)
A
2/8 (25%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
1/9 (11.11%)
A
1/8 (12.5%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
0/9 (0%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
0/9 (0%)
A
0/8 (0%)

Team Corners

Mexico have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 22.22% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 0% of home matches.

Ecuador have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 0% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 0% of away matches.

H Mexico: last 9 home A Ecuador: last 8 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
2/9 (22.22%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
0/9 (0%)
A
2/8 (25%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
4/9 (44.44%)
A
3/8 (37.5%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
2/9 (22.22%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
2/9 (22.22%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
1/9 (11.11%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
1/9 (11.11%)
A
0/8 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
1/9 (11.11%)
A
3/8 (37.5%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
0/9 (0%)
A
2/8 (25%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
0/9 (0%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
0/9 (0%)
A
0/8 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/9 (0%)
A
0/8 (0%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Mexico and Ecuador. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

15 Oct 2025
Mexico
1 – 1 HT: 1-1
Ecuador
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
01 Jul 2024
Mexico
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Ecuador
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
05 Jun 2022
Mexico
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Ecuador
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
28 Oct 2021
Mexico
2 – 3 HT: 1-2
Ecuador
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
09 Jun 2019
Mexico
3 – 2 HT: 1-0
Ecuador
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19 Jun 2015
Mexico
1 – 2 HT: 0-1
Ecuador
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
29 Mar 2015
Mexico
1 – 0 HT: 1-0
Ecuador
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
31 May 2014
Mexico
3 – 1 HT: 1-0
Ecuador
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
28 May 2011
Mexico
1 – 1 HT: 1-1
Ecuador
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
05 Sep 2010
Mexico
1 – 2 HT: 1-1
Ecuador
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Mexico vs Ecuador across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Mexico 2.2 Model: 47%
Draw 3 Model: 30%
Ecuador 3.75 Model: 23%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 2.4 Model: 40%
No 1.66 Model: 60%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.57 Model: 62%
Over 2.5 2.75 Model: 35%
Over 3.5 7 Model: 16%
Under 1.5 2.43 Model: 38%
Under 2.5 1.42 Model: 65%
Under 3.5 1.16 Model: 84%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.59 Model: 71%
Over 1.5 3.75

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.47 Model: 34%
Over 9.5 1.86 Model: 25%
Over 10.5 3.4 Model: 17%
Over 11.5 3.53 Model: 12%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Value Mexico 3.07 Model: 36%
Draw 1.96 Model: 49%
Ecuador 4.75 Model: 15%

Double Chance

Mexico or Draw 1.25 Model: 77%
Mexico or Ecuador 1.36 Model: 70%
Draw or Ecuador 1.69 Model: 53%

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5 1.35 Model: 72%
Value Over 1.5 2.93 Model: 36%

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5 1.67 Model: 53%
Over 1.5 4.51 Model: 19%

Mexico vs Ecuador Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Mexico vs Ecuador?

Under 2.5 Goals: Mexico have stayed under 3 goals in 66.67% of home games, Ecuador in 100% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

Which team is likely to win, Mexico or Ecuador?

Mexico hold a clear form advantage. They've won 77.78% of home games in World Cup this season, while Ecuador have won only 0% away. The home side look the stronger pick.

Will both teams score in the match between Mexico and Ecuador?

Unlikely. Mexico (22.22% BTTS at home) and Ecuador (12.5% away) have both been involved in predominantly one-sided matches in World Cup. A clean sheet for one side looks the more probable outcome.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Mexico and Ecuador?

Unlikely. Mexico (33.33% Over 2.5 at home) and Ecuador (0% away) have both featured predominantly in low-scoring matches in World Cup. Under 2.5 Goals looks the stronger play.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Mexico or Ecuador?

Mexico have the stronger scoring record. 2+ goals in 22.22% of home games compared to Ecuador's 0% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Mexico and Ecuador?

Unlikely. Mexico (22.22% Over 8.5 at home) and Ecuador (12.5% away) have both featured in predominantly low-corner matches in World Cup.

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