Primera Division · Uruguay 🕒 Sunday 31st August, 22:00 BST

Racing vs Peñarol Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Racing Home · 7th 5W 4D 1L last 10 home
VS
Peñarol Away · 1st 6W 2D 2L last 10 away
Win Probability
Racing 25% Draw 31% Peñarol 44%
⭐ Our Prediction Under 2.5 Goals See why ↓

Racing vs Peñarol Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Under 2.5 Goals

Medium confidence

Racing have stayed under 3 goals in 70% of home games, Peñarol in 90% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

What the model says
25% Racing win 31% Draw 44% Peñarol win 43% BTTS 36% Over 2.5 Goals 0-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
82% Under 3.5 Goals

Racing sit 7th in the table after 26 games, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per home match this season. Peñarol are 1st after 27 games, averaging 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded on the road. Peñarol carry the better away form into this fixture (6/10, 60%), while Racing have won 5/10 at home (50%).

Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches this season. Racing have seen 3+ goals in only 30% of home fixtures; Peñarol in 10% away. Racing average 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded at home, Peñarol 1.3 and 0.7 on the road. The numbers point toward a tight game.

BTTS figures are mid-range for both sides: Racing at 50% in home games (5/10), Peñarol at 30% away (3/10). Neither a clear yes nor no based on the stats alone.

Racing regularly generate high corner counts at home (10+ corners in 70% of fixtures, 7/10). Peñarol are lower on the road (10%). The home side's attacking style tends to produce set-piece volume regardless of the opponent.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

Where Racing (7th) and Peñarol (1st) sit in the Primera Division table for the 2025 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
2 Peñarol A 41 25 8 8 70:38 +32 83
7 Racing H 37 14 11 12 39:38 +1 53
View the full Primera Division 2025 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Nacional 40 25 12 3 79:35 +44 87
2 Peñarol A 41 25 8 8 70:38 +32 83
3 Liverpool 38 18 11 9 52:39 +13 65
4 Juventud 37 18 7 12 45:39 +6 61
5 Defensor Sporting 37 18 7 12 42:38 +4 61
6 Boston River 37 14 13 10 50:39 +11 55
7 Racing H 37 14 11 12 39:38 +1 53
8 Montevideo City Torque 37 13 10 14 54:51 +3 49
9 Cerro Largo 37 12 13 12 41:41 0 49
10 Cerro 37 12 11 14 33:42 -9 47
11 Danubio 37 10 13 14 41:41 0 43
12 Atlético Progreso 37 10 9 18 38:60 -22 39
13 Plaza Colonia 37 8 11 18 28:46 -18 35
14 Wanderers 37 6 13 18 25:47 -22 31
15 River Plate 37 6 11 20 28:48 -20 29
16 Miramar Misiones 37 7 8 22 35:58 -23 29

Team Form

Peñarol have shown strong away form this season (60% wins), while Racing have been less dominant at home (50%). The visitors may have the form edge in this one.

H Racing: last 10 home A Peñarol: last 10 away
Won
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Drawn
H
4/10 (40%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Lost
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Racing have seen both teams score in 50% of home games, Peñarol in 30% of away games. The full BTTS breakdown for both sides is below.

H Racing: last 10 home A Peñarol: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
5/10 (50%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Scored Themselves
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Conceded
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 43% · BTTS No 57%

Match Goals

Racing (30% Over 2.5 at home) and Peñarol (10% away) have both featured predominantly in low-scoring matches this season. Under 2.5 Goals looks the stronger play.

H Racing: last 10 home A Peñarol: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
9/10 (90%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
9/10 (90%)

Team Goals

Racing have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, Peñarol in 10% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Racing 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded per home game Peñarol 1.3 scored · 0.7 conceded per away game
H Racing: last 10 home A Peñarol: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
9/10 (90%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
5/10 (50%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Racing 14 scored / 8 conceded at home · Peñarol 13 scored / 7 conceded away

Match Corners

Racing regularly reach high corner counts at home (70%), while Peñarol are lower on the road (20%). The home side are likely to dominate the corner count in this fixture.

H Racing: last 10 home A Peñarol: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
6/10 (60%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Team Corners

Racing have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 50% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Peñarol have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 0% of away matches.

H Racing: last 10 home A Peñarol: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
6/10 (60%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
5/10 (50%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
5/10 (50%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Racing and Peñarol. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

9th Mar, 2025
Peñarol
0 – 2 HT: 0-1
Racing
Corners 10–4 Cards 3–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
30th Sep, 2024
Peñarol
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Racing
Corners 8–2 Cards 1–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
16th Jun, 2024
Peñarol
1 – 1 HT: 0-0
Racing
Corners 8–3 Cards 3–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
16th Mar, 2024
Racing
1 – 2 HT: 0-2
Peñarol
Corners 2–5 Cards 2–2 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
2nd Dec, 2023
Peñarol
1 – 1 HT: 0-0
Racing
Corners 7–9 Cards 1–4 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
8th May, 2023
Racing
0 – 2 HT: 0-0
Peñarol
Corners 4–7 Cards 1–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
17th Oct, 2019
Racing
3 – 3 HT: 1-1
Peñarol
Corners 2–11 Cards 3–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
23rd Mar, 2019
Peñarol
2 – 2 HT: 1-0
Racing
Corners 8–4 Cards 3–3 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
21st Jul, 2018
Peñarol
1 – 1 HT: 1-1
Racing
Corners 12–1 Cards 1–5 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
4th Feb, 2018
Racing
0 – 2 HT: 0-1
Peñarol
Corners 1–2 Cards 3–1 O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Racing vs Peñarol across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Value Racing 4.9 Model: 25%
Value Draw 3.68 Model: 31%
Peñarol 1.76 Model: 44%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 2.17 Model: 43%
No 1.66 Model: 57%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.41 Model: 63%
Over 2.5 2.37 Model: 36%
Over 3.5 4.41 Model: 18%
Value Under 1.5 2.85 Model: 37%
Under 2.5 1.62 Model: 64%
Under 3.5 1.22 Model: 82%

1st Half Goals

Over 0.5 1.44
Over 1.5 3.4

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.2 Model: 45%
Over 9.5 1.6 Model: 34%
Over 10.5 2.28 Model: 24%
Over 11.5 2.54 Model: 17%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Value Racing 5.78 Model: 20%
Draw 2.1 Model: 48%
Peñarol 2.44 Model: 32%

Double Chance

Value Racing or Draw 2.1 Model: 56%
Racing or Peñarol 1.29 Model: 69%
Draw or Peñarol 1.22 Model: 75%

Racing Goals

Over 0.5 1.74 Model: 57%
Over 1.5 4.2 Model: 22%
Over 2.5 17

Peñarol Goals

Over 0.5 1.23 Model: 71%
Over 1.5 2.12 Model: 35%
Over 2.5 4.3

Racing vs Peñarol Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Racing vs Peñarol?

Under 2.5 Goals: Racing have stayed under 3 goals in 70% of home games, Peñarol in 90% of away games. Both sides point toward a tight, low-scoring match.

Which team is likely to win, Racing or Peñarol?

Peñarol hold a slight form advantage away (60% wins) over Racing at home (50% wins) in Primera Division. A competitive fixture with the visitors potentially having the edge.

Will both teams score in the match between Racing and Peñarol?

Mixed. Racing have seen BTTS in 50% of home games, Peñarol in 30% of away games. The stats don't strongly point either way for this Primera Division fixture.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Racing and Peñarol?

Unlikely. Racing (30% Over 2.5 at home) and Peñarol (10% away) have both featured predominantly in low-scoring matches in Primera Division. Under 2.5 Goals looks the stronger play.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Racing or Peñarol?

Peñarol have the stronger away scoring record. 2+ goals in 10% of away games compared to Racing's 10% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Racing and Peñarol?

Possibly. Racing regularly reach high corner counts at home (70%), while Peñarol are lower on the road (20%). The home side may drive the corner count in this fixture.

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