A-League Men · Australia 🕒 Friday 6th February, 06:00 GMT

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Wellington Phoenix Home · 10th 4W 2D 4L last 10 home
VS
Melbourne Victory Away · 8th 4W 3D 3L last 10 away
Win Probability
Wellington Phoenix 33% Draw 24% Melbourne Victory 43%
⭐ Our Prediction Over 8.5 Corners See why ↓

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Over 8.5 Corners

Medium confidence

Wellington Phoenix see 9+ corners in 80% of home games, Melbourne Victory in 90% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

What the model says
33% Wellington Phoenix win 24% Draw 43% Melbourne Victory win 57% BTTS 55% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
78% Over 1.5 Goals 66% Under 3.5 Goals

Wellington Phoenix sit 10th in the table after 12 games, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per home match this season. Melbourne Victory are 8th after 13 games, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.1 conceded on the road. The form figures are level. Wellington Phoenix have won 40% of home games, Melbourne Victory 40% away. A tight, hard-to-call fixture.

Wellington Phoenix have been involved in high-scoring home games this season. Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 80% of their home fixtures (8/10). Melbourne Victory are lower on the road (50%, 5/10), averaging 1.4 scored and 1.1 conceded away from home.

Wellington Phoenix frequently see both teams score at home (70%, 7/10). Melbourne Victory are lower on the road (50%, 5/10). They've scored in 70% of away games this season, which is the key variable.

Melbourne Victory are involved in high-corner games on the road (10+ corners in 80% of away fixtures, 8/10). Wellington Phoenix are lower at home (60%), but the visitors' style tends to push the total up.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

View Today’s Tips

League Table

Where Wellington Phoenix (10th) and Melbourne Victory (8th) sit in the A-League Men table for the 2025/2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
5 Melbourne Victory A 27 11 7 9 44:34 +10 40
8 Wellington Phoenix H 26 9 6 11 36:48 -12 33
View the full A-League Men 2025/2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Auckland 30 13 11 6 48:31 +17 50
2 Newcastle Jets 28 15 5 8 57:41 +16 50
3 Sydney 30 12 8 10 36:28 +8 44
4 Adelaide United 28 12 8 8 47:40 +7 44
5 Melbourne Victory A 27 11 7 9 44:34 +10 40
6 Melbourne City 27 10 9 8 34:34 0 39
7 Macarthur 26 9 7 10 37:44 -7 34
8 Wellington Phoenix H 26 9 6 11 36:48 -12 33
9 Central Coast Mariners 26 8 8 10 35:42 -7 32
10 Perth Glory 26 8 7 11 32:39 -7 31
11 Brisbane Roar 26 6 8 12 27:36 -9 26
12 Western Sydney Wanderers 26 5 6 15 27:43 -16 21

Team Form

Wellington Phoenix (40% home wins) and Melbourne Victory (40% away wins) are evenly matched on current form. The stats below suggest this could be a closely contested fixture.

H Wellington Phoenix: last 10 home A Melbourne Victory: last 10 away
Won
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Drawn
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Lost
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Wellington Phoenix frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Melbourne Victory are less consistent on the road (50%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

H Wellington Phoenix: last 10 home A Melbourne Victory: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Scored Themselves
H
8/10 (80%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Conceded
H
9/10 (90%)
A
7/10 (70%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 57% · BTTS No 43%

Match Goals

Wellington Phoenix frequently feature in high-scoring home matches (Over 2.5 in 80%), while Melbourne Victory are lower on the road (50%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

H Wellington Phoenix: last 10 home A Melbourne Victory: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
9/10 (90%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
10/10 (100%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
6/10 (60%)

Team Goals

Wellington Phoenix have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, Melbourne Victory in 20% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Wellington Phoenix 1.6 scored · 1.9 conceded per home game Melbourne Victory 1.4 scored · 1.1 conceded per away game
H Wellington Phoenix: last 10 home A Melbourne Victory: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
5/10 (50%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
8/10 (80%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
9/10 (90%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
5/10 (50%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Wellington Phoenix 16 scored / 19 conceded at home · Melbourne Victory 14 scored / 11 conceded away

Match Corners

Both Wellington Phoenix (80% Over 8.5 at home) and Melbourne Victory (90% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches. Expect plenty of set-piece opportunities from both sides.

H Wellington Phoenix: last 10 home A Melbourne Victory: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
8/10 (80%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
6/10 (60%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
8/10 (80%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)

Team Corners

Wellington Phoenix have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 30% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Melbourne Victory have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 50% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 50% of away matches.

H Wellington Phoenix: last 10 home A Melbourne Victory: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
6/10 (60%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
8/10 (80%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
6/10 (60%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
4/10 (40%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
3/10 (30%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

29 Dec 2025
Melbourne Victory
5 – 1 HT: 2-1
Wellington Phoenix
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
12 Apr 2025
Wellington Phoenix
2 – 3 HT: 1-2
Melbourne Victory
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
14 Feb 2025
Melbourne Victory
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Wellington Phoenix
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
24 Nov 2024
Wellington Phoenix
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Melbourne Victory
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
18 May 2024
Wellington Phoenix
1 – 2 HT: 0-0
Melbourne Victory
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
12 May 2024
Melbourne Victory
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Wellington Phoenix
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
12 Apr 2024
Wellington Phoenix
1 – 0 HT: 0-0
Melbourne Victory
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19 Jan 2024
Wellington Phoenix
1 – 1 HT: 0-0
Melbourne Victory
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
10 Nov 2023
Melbourne Victory
1 – 1 HT: 1-1
Wellington Phoenix
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
01 Apr 2023
Wellington Phoenix
1 – 2 HT: 1-0
Melbourne Victory
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Value Wellington Phoenix 3.8 Model: 33%
Draw 4.2 Model: 24%
Melbourne Victory 1.97 Model: 43%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.62 Model: 57%
Value No 2.5 Model: 43%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.2 Model: 78%
Over 2.5 1.64 Model: 55%
Over 3.5 2.62 Model: 34%
Value Under 1.5 5.5 Model: 22%
Value Under 2.5 2.52 Model: 45%
Value Under 3.5 1.6 Model: 66%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.24 Model: 83%
Over 1.5 2.4

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.21 Model: 65%
Over 9.5 1.34 Model: 53%
Over 10.5 1.76 Model: 42%
Over 11.5 1.99 Model: 32%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Wellington Phoenix 3.85 Model: 24%
Draw 2.4 Model: 37%
Melbourne Victory 2.46 Model: 39%

Double Chance

Value Wellington Phoenix or Draw 1.91 Model: 57%
Wellington Phoenix or Melbourne Victory 1.27 Model: 76%
Draw or Melbourne Victory 1.29 Model: 67%

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5 1.3 Model: 68%
Over 1.5 2.74 Model: 36%

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5 1.11 Model: 75%
Over 1.5 1.75 Model: 45%

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory?

Over 8.5 Corners: Wellington Phoenix see 9+ corners in 80% of home games, Melbourne Victory in 90% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

Which team is likely to win, Wellington Phoenix or Melbourne Victory?

Both sides are evenly matched on current form. Wellington Phoenix have won 40% of home games, Melbourne Victory 40% away in A-League Men. This looks like a closely contested fixture.

Will both teams score in the match between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory?

Possibly. Wellington Phoenix frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Melbourne Victory are lower on the road (50%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory?

Possibly. Wellington Phoenix frequently feature in high-scoring home games (Over 2.5 in 80%), while Melbourne Victory are lower on the road (50%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Wellington Phoenix or Melbourne Victory?

Melbourne Victory have the stronger away scoring record. 2+ goals in 20% of away games compared to Wellington Phoenix's 10% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory?

Yes. Both Wellington Phoenix (80% Over 8.5 at home) and Melbourne Victory (90% Over 8.5 away) regularly feature in high-corner matches in A-League Men. Plenty of set-piece opportunities expected.

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"Great site for betting stats! I use it mostly for checking both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, and it’s been really helpful. The first half stats also give me a great edge in making my decisions."

Finn B. (Leeds, UK)

"The stats on this site are spot on. I’ve been using the home win, away win and over 2.5 goals data for my bets, and it’s been super helpful. It’s great to have all the key stats in one place, from goals to corners. The fact that some stats are free is just the icing on the cake!"

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"I’ve been betting for a while, and this site’s focus on key stats like home win, away goals over 1.5, and over 0.5 first half goals has made my bets more informed. The data is clear and easy to use, which is a big plus. I highly recommend it for anyone who bets on football!"

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