Primera Division · Uruguay 🕒 Saturday 18th July, 16:30 BST

Atlético Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Atlético Progreso Home 1W 2D 7L last 10 home
VS
Deportivo Maldonado Away 4W 3D 3L last 10 away
Win Probability
Atlético Progreso 20% Draw 27% Deportivo Maldonado 53%
⭐ Our Prediction Over 1.5 Goals See why ↓

Atlético Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

Medium confidence

Atlético Progreso see 2+ goals in 70% of home games, Deportivo Maldonado in 80% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

What the model says
20% Atlético Progreso win 27% Draw 53% Deportivo Maldonado win 44% BTTS 41% Over 2.5 Goals 0-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
80% Under 3.5 Goals

Atlético Progreso average 0.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per home match this season. Deportivo Maldonado average 1.6 scored and 1.3 conceded in away fixtures. Atlético Progreso have won 1/10 home games (10%) this season; Deportivo Maldonado have won 4/10 on the road (40%). There's no dominant edge either way.

Atlético Progreso have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 60% of home games this season (6/10); Deportivo Maldonado in 50% away (5/10). Atlético Progreso average 0.9 scored and 1.8 conceded at home, Deportivo Maldonado 1.6 and 1.3 on the road.

Deportivo Maldonado regularly see both teams score in away fixtures (70%, 7/10). Atlético Progreso are lower at home (50%, 5/10). They've conceded in 100% of home games, which keeps BTTS in play.

Corner counts have been moderate to high for both sides this season. Atlético Progreso see 8+ in 70% of home games, Deportivo Maldonado in 90% away. Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

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League Table

Where Atlético Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado sit in the Primera Division table for the 2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Deportivo Maldonado A 19 12 3 4 35:20 +15 39
15 Atlético Progreso H 19 3 4 12 16:30 -14 13
View the full Primera Division 2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Deportivo Maldonado A 19 12 3 4 35:20 +15 39
2 Racing 19 10 7 2 25:15 +10 37
3 Peñarol 19 11 3 5 28:18 +10 36
4 Albion 19 9 5 5 29:20 +9 32
5 Nacional 19 10 1 8 31:26 +5 31
6 Central Español 19 9 4 6 27:25 +2 31
7 Montevideo City Torque 19 8 5 6 29:24 +5 29
8 Wanderers 19 7 5 7 22:24 -2 26
9 Liverpool 19 6 7 6 22:20 +2 25
10 Cerro Largo 19 7 3 9 21:20 +1 24
11 Defensor Sporting 19 5 8 6 15:16 -1 23
12 Boston River 19 6 3 10 19:26 -7 21
13 Danubio 18 4 7 7 19:26 -7 19
14 Juventud 18 5 3 10 22:29 -7 18
15 Atlético Progreso H 19 3 4 12 16:30 -14 13
16 Cerro 19 3 4 12 10:31 -21 13

Team Form

Atlético Progreso have lost 70% of their home matches this season, while Deportivo Maldonado have been more resilient on the road (30% losses). The visitors may have a slight edge in consistency.

H Atlético Progreso: last 10 home A Deportivo Maldonado: last 10 away
Won
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Drawn
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Lost
H
7/10 (70%)
A
3/10 (30%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Deportivo Maldonado regularly see both teams score in away matches (70%), while Atlético Progreso are lower at home (50%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

H Atlético Progreso: last 10 home A Deportivo Maldonado: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
5/10 (50%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Scored Themselves
H
5/10 (50%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Conceded
H
10/10 (100%)
A
7/10 (70%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 44% · BTTS No 56%

Match Goals

Atlético Progreso have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 60% of home games, Deportivo Maldonado in 50% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is below.

H Atlético Progreso: last 10 home A Deportivo Maldonado: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
10/10 (100%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
7/10 (70%)

Team Goals

Atlético Progreso have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, Deportivo Maldonado in 20% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Atlético Progreso 0.9 scored · 1.8 conceded per home game Deportivo Maldonado 1.6 scored · 1.3 conceded per away game
H Atlético Progreso: last 10 home A Deportivo Maldonado: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
5/10 (50%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
0/10 (0%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
10/10 (100%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
6/10 (60%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Atlético Progreso 9 scored / 18 conceded at home · Deportivo Maldonado 16 scored / 13 conceded away

Match Corners

Both Atlético Progreso (70% Over 7.5 at home) and Deportivo Maldonado (90% Over 7.5 away) regularly see 8+ corners. A moderate-to-high corner count looks likely in this fixture.

H Atlético Progreso: last 10 home A Deportivo Maldonado: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
1/10 (10%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
0/10 (0%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Team Corners

Atlético Progreso have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 0% of home matches.

Deportivo Maldonado have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 50% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of away matches.

H Atlético Progreso: last 10 home A Deportivo Maldonado: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
4/10 (40%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
5/10 (50%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
3/10 (30%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Atlético Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Atlético Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Over 1.5 Goals: Atlético Progreso see 2+ goals in 70% of home games, Deportivo Maldonado in 80% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

Which team is likely to win, Atlético Progreso or Deportivo Maldonado?

Deportivo Maldonado hold a slight form advantage away (40% wins) over Atlético Progreso at home (10% wins) in Primera Division. A competitive fixture with the visitors potentially having the edge.

Will both teams score in the match between Atlético Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado?

Possibly. Deportivo Maldonado regularly see both teams score away (70%), while Atlético Progreso are lower at home (50%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Atlético Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado?

Uncertain. Atlético Progreso have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 60% of home games, Deportivo Maldonado in 50% of away games in Primera Division. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Atlético Progreso or Deportivo Maldonado?

Deportivo Maldonado have the stronger away scoring record. 2+ goals in 20% of away games compared to Atlético Progreso's 10% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Atlético Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado?

Atlético Progreso have seen Over 8.5 Corners in 50% of home games, Deportivo Maldonado in 60% of away games in Primera Division. The corner stats don't point strongly in either direction.

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