Serie A · Brazil 🕒 Wednesday 29th July, 01:00 BST

Botafogo vs Grêmio Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Botafogo Home · 7th 5W 4D 1L last 10 home
VS
Grêmio Away · 15th 2W 4D 4L last 10 away
Win Probability
Botafogo 55% Draw 25% Grêmio 20%
⭐ Our Prediction Over 8.5 Corners See why ↓

Botafogo vs Grêmio Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Over 8.5 Corners

Medium confidence

Botafogo see 9+ corners in 70% of home games, Grêmio in 60% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

What the model says
55% Botafogo win 25% Draw 20% Grêmio win 49% BTTS 46% Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 most likely score
Also worth a look
75% Under 3.5 Goals 71% Over 1.5 Goals

Botafogo sit 7th in the table after 20 games, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1 conceded per home match this season. Grêmio are 15th after 20 games, averaging 1 scored and 0.9 conceded on the road. Botafogo have won 5/10 home games (50%) this season; Grêmio have won 2/10 on the road (20%). There's no dominant edge either way.

Botafogo have been involved in high-scoring home games this season. Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 70% of their home fixtures (7/10). Grêmio are lower on the road (40%, 4/10), averaging 1 scored and 0.9 conceded away from home.

Botafogo frequently see both teams score at home (70%, 7/10). Grêmio are lower on the road (30%, 3/10). They've scored in 50% of away games this season, which is the key variable.

Corner counts have been moderate to high for both sides this season. Botafogo see 8+ in 90% of home games, Grêmio in 70% away. Over 8.5 Corners is worth considering.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

Where Botafogo (7th) and Grêmio (15th) sit in the Serie A table for the 2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
7 Botafogo H 20 8 5 7 34:32 +2 29
15 Grêmio A 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
View the full Serie A 2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Palmeiras 20 13 5 2 34:16 +18 44
2 Flamengo 19 11 5 3 36:17 +19 38
3 Athletico PR 20 11 3 6 28:19 +9 36
4 Fluminense 20 9 6 5 30:25 +5 33
5 Bragantino 20 9 4 7 26:20 +6 31
6 Bahia 20 8 7 5 29:25 +4 31
7 Botafogo H 20 8 5 7 34:32 +2 29
8 Corinthians 20 7 7 6 22:20 +2 28
9 Atlético Mineiro 20 8 4 8 25:25 0 28
10 Coritiba 20 7 6 7 25:27 -2 27
11 Cruzeiro 20 7 6 7 26:30 -4 27
12 São Paulo 20 7 5 8 25:23 +2 26
13 Vitória 20 7 5 8 22:27 -5 26
14 Santos 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
15 Grêmio A 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
16 Internacional 20 5 6 9 22:26 -4 21
17 Vasco da Gama 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
18 Remo 20 5 6 9 23:32 -9 21
19 Mirassol 19 5 5 9 21:26 -5 20
20 Chapecoense 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10

Team Form

Grêmio have lost 40% of their away matches this season, while Botafogo have been more solid at home (10% losses). The home side may find it easier to impose themselves.

H Botafogo: last 10 home A Grêmio: last 10 away
Won
H
5/10 (50%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Drawn
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Lost
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Botafogo frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Grêmio are less consistent on the road (30%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

H Botafogo: last 10 home A Grêmio: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
7/10 (70%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Scored Themselves
H
9/10 (90%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Conceded
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 49% · BTTS No 51%

Match Goals

Botafogo frequently feature in high-scoring home matches (Over 2.5 in 70%), while Grêmio are lower on the road (40%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

H Botafogo: last 10 home A Grêmio: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
9/10 (90%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
9/10 (90%)

Team Goals

Botafogo have scored 2+ goals in 20% of home games this season, Grêmio in 20% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Botafogo 1.7 scored · 1 conceded per home game Grêmio 1 scored · 0.9 conceded per away game
H Botafogo: last 10 home A Grêmio: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
9/10 (90%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
6/10 (60%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Botafogo 17 scored / 10 conceded at home · Grêmio 10 scored / 9 conceded away

Match Corners

Botafogo regularly reach high corner counts at home (70%), while Grêmio are lower on the road (60%). The home side are likely to dominate the corner count in this fixture.

H Botafogo: last 10 home A Grêmio: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
6/10 (60%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
9/10 (90%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Team Corners

Botafogo have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 50% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 0% of home matches.

Grêmio have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 0% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 40% of away matches.

H Botafogo: last 10 home A Grêmio: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
8/10 (80%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
5/10 (50%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
5/10 (50%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
4/10 (40%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Botafogo and Grêmio. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

05 Feb 2026
Grêmio
5 – 3 HT: 1-2
Botafogo
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
22 Nov 2025
Botafogo
3 – 2 HT: 2-0
Grêmio
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
24 Sep 2025
Grêmio
1 – 1 HT: 0-0
Botafogo
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
29 Sep 2024
Botafogo
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Grêmio
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
16 Jun 2024
Grêmio
1 – 2 HT: 1-1
Botafogo
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
09 Nov 2023
Botafogo
3 – 4 HT: 2-1
Grêmio
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
09 Jul 2023
Grêmio
0 – 2 HT: 0-0
Botafogo
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
08 Feb 2021
Botafogo
2 – 5 HT: 0-2
Grêmio
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
14 Oct 2020
Grêmio
3 – 1 HT: 1-1
Botafogo
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
27 Oct 2019
Grêmio
3 – 0 HT: 1-0
Botafogo
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Botafogo vs Grêmio across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Botafogo 1.72 Model: 55%
Draw 3.6 Model: 25%
Grêmio 4.75 Model: 20%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.95 Model: 49%
No 1.8 Model: 51%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.33 Model: 71%
Over 2.5 1.79 Model: 46%
Over 3.5 3.5 Model: 25%
Under 1.5 3.4 Model: 29%
Under 2.5 1.8 Model: 54%
Under 3.5 1.3 Model: 75%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.35 Model: 78%
Over 1.5 2.75

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.28 Model: 62%
Over 9.5 1.5 Model: 49%
Over 10.5 2.37 Model: 38%
Over 11.5 2.28 Model: 27%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Botafogo 2.3 Model: 41%
Draw 2.2 Model: 42%
Grêmio 5 Model: 17%

Double Chance

Botafogo or Draw 1.18 Model: 80%
Botafogo or Grêmio 1.28 Model: 75%
Draw or Grêmio 2.05 Model: 45%

Botafogo Goals

Over 0.5 1.14 Model: 80%
Over 1.5 1.87 Model: 48%

Grêmio Goals

Over 0.5 1.49 Model: 55%
Over 1.5 3.36 Model: 20%

Botafogo vs Grêmio Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Botafogo vs Grêmio?

Over 8.5 Corners: Botafogo see 9+ corners in 70% of home games, Grêmio in 60% of away games. Plenty of set-piece action expected.

Which team is likely to win, Botafogo or Grêmio?

Botafogo have a slight form edge at home (50% wins) over Grêmio on the road (20% wins) in Serie A. Home advantage could be the deciding factor.

Will both teams score in the match between Botafogo and Grêmio?

Possibly. Botafogo frequently see both teams score at home (70%), while Grêmio are lower on the road (30%). The home side are likely to score, but a reply from the visitors is less certain.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Botafogo and Grêmio?

Possibly. Botafogo frequently feature in high-scoring home games (Over 2.5 in 70%), while Grêmio are lower on the road (40%). The hosts' attacking output could still drive the game past 2.5 goals.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Botafogo or Grêmio?

Grêmio have the stronger away scoring record. 2+ goals in 20% of away games compared to Botafogo's 20% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Botafogo and Grêmio?

Possibly. Botafogo regularly reach high corner counts at home (70%), while Grêmio are lower on the road (60%). The home side may drive the corner count in this fixture.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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