Serie A · Brazil 🕒 Thursday 30th July, 01:30 BST

Vitória vs Palmeiras Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Vitória Home · 13th 9W 1D 0L last 10 home
VS
Palmeiras Away · 1st 6W 4D 0L last 10 away
Win Probability
Vitória 27% Draw 30% Palmeiras 43%
⭐ Our Prediction Over 1.5 Goals See why ↓

Vitória vs Palmeiras Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

Medium confidence

Vitória see 2+ goals in 70% of home games, Palmeiras in 80% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

What the model says
27% Vitória win 30% Draw 43% Palmeiras win 51% BTTS 46% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score
Also worth a look
76% Under 3.5 Goals 67% Over 8.5 Corners

Vitória sit 13th in the table after 20 games, averaging 2.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per home match this season. Palmeiras are 1st after 20 games, averaging 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded on the road. Vitória have won 9/10 home games (90%) this season; Palmeiras have won 6/10 on the road (60%). There's no dominant edge either way.

Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches this season. Vitória have seen 3+ goals in only 40% of home fixtures; Palmeiras in 40% away. Vitória average 2.3 scored and 0.5 conceded at home, Palmeiras 1.8 and 0.6 on the road. The numbers point toward a tight game.

Palmeiras regularly see both teams score in away fixtures (60%, 6/10). Vitória are lower at home (40%, 4/10). They've conceded in 40% of home games, which keeps BTTS in play.

Palmeiras are involved in high-corner games on the road (10+ corners in 80% of away fixtures, 8/10). Vitória are lower at home (30%), but the visitors' style tends to push the total up.

Today’s Betting Tips & Stats

See our football predictions, match stats, and insights for today’s games.

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League Table

Where Vitória (13th) and Palmeiras (1st) sit in the Serie A table for the 2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Palmeiras A 19 13 5 1 33:14 +19 44
11 Vitória H 19 7 5 7 22:25 -3 26
View the full Serie A 2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Palmeiras A 19 13 5 1 33:14 +19 44
2 Flamengo 18 11 4 3 35:16 +19 37
3 Athletico PR 20 11 3 6 28:19 +9 36
4 Fluminense 19 9 5 5 29:24 +5 32
5 Bragantino 19 9 3 7 26:20 +6 30
6 Bahia 19 8 6 5 28:24 +4 30
7 Corinthians 19 7 6 6 21:19 +2 27
8 Cruzeiro 19 7 6 6 26:29 -3 27
9 Botafogo 19 7 5 7 33:32 +1 26
10 Coritiba 19 7 5 7 25:27 -2 26
11 Vitória H 19 7 5 7 22:25 -3 26
12 São Paulo 19 7 4 8 24:22 +2 25
13 Atlético Mineiro 19 7 4 8 23:24 -1 25
14 Santos 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
15 Internacional 20 5 6 9 22:26 -4 21
16 Grêmio 19 5 6 8 21:25 -4 21
17 Vasco da Gama 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
18 Mirassol 19 5 5 9 21:26 -5 20
19 Remo 19 4 6 9 21:32 -11 18
20 Chapecoense 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10

Team Form

Vitória have won 90% of home games this season, Palmeiras 60% away. The breakdown below gives the full picture heading into this match.

H Vitória: last 10 home A Palmeiras: last 10 away
Won
H
9/10 (90%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Drawn
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Lost
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Palmeiras regularly see both teams score in away matches (60%), while Vitória are lower at home (40%). The visitors are likely to score, but a home reply is less guaranteed.

H Vitória: last 10 home A Palmeiras: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
4/10 (40%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Scored Themselves
H
9/10 (90%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Conceded
H
4/10 (40%)
A
6/10 (60%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 51% · BTTS No 49%

Match Goals

Vitória have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Palmeiras in 40% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is below.

H Vitória: last 10 home A Palmeiras: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
9/10 (90%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
8/10 (80%)

Team Goals

Vitória have scored 2+ goals in 30% of home games this season, Palmeiras in 30% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Vitória 2.3 scored · 0.5 conceded per home game Palmeiras 1.8 scored · 0.6 conceded per away game
H Vitória: last 10 home A Palmeiras: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
9/10 (90%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
7/10 (70%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
3/10 (30%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
4/10 (40%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Vitória 23 scored / 5 conceded at home · Palmeiras 18 scored / 6 conceded away

Match Corners

Palmeiras frequently reach high corner counts away from home (90%), while Vitória are lower at home (50%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

H Vitória: last 10 home A Palmeiras: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
8/10 (80%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
4/10 (40%)

Team Corners

Vitória have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 20% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 10% of home matches.

Palmeiras have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 50% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 50% of away matches.

H Vitória: last 10 home A Palmeiras: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
2/10 (20%)
A
2/10 (20%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
5/10 (50%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
4/10 (40%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
1/10 (10%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Head 2 Head

The head-to-head record below shows previous results between Vitória and Palmeiras. Historical meetings can reveal patterns in how these sides match up. Use this alongside the current form and stats above for a fuller picture before placing a bet.

05 Feb 2026
Palmeiras
5 – 1 HT: 3-0
Vitória
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19 Nov 2025
Palmeiras
0 – 0 HT: 0-0
Vitória
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
03 Aug 2025
Vitória
2 – 2 HT: 1-0
Palmeiras
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
27 Jul 2024
Palmeiras
0 – 2 HT: 0-0
Vitória
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
Show 6 more meetings
14 Apr 2024
Vitória
0 – 1 HT: 0-1
Palmeiras
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
02 Dec 2018
Palmeiras
3 – 2 HT: 1-0
Vitória
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
19 Aug 2018
Vitória
0 – 3 HT: 0-2
Palmeiras
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
08 Nov 2017
Vitória
3 – 1 HT: 3-1
Palmeiras
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
16 Jul 2017
Palmeiras
4 – 2 HT: 2-1
Vitória
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS
11 Dec 2016
Vitória
1 – 2 HT: 1-2
Palmeiras
O1.5 O2.5 BTTS

Betting Odds

The table below shows the latest betting odds for Vitória vs Palmeiras across a range of markets: full time result, both teams to score, total goals, corners, and first half goals. Odds are sourced from leading bookmakers and are subject to change. Always check with your bookmaker before placing a bet. Markets flagged as Value are where our model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.

Full Time Result

Vitória 3.9 Model: 27%
Draw 3.4 Model: 30%
Palmeiras 2 Model: 43%

Both Teams to Score

Yes 1.91 Model: 51%
No 1.91 Model: 49%

Total Goals

Over 1.5 1.31 Model: 72%
Over 2.5 2.09 Model: 46%
Over 3.5 3.44 Model: 24%
Under 1.5 2.94 Model: 28%
Under 2.5 1.74 Model: 54%
Under 3.5 1.23 Model: 76%

1st Half Goals

Value Over 0.5 1.44 Model: 79%
Over 1.5 3.11

Total Corners

Over 8.5 1.14 Model: 67%
Over 9.5 1.31 Model: 55%
Over 10.5 1.47 Model: 44%
Over 11.5 1.84 Model: 33%
More markets (half time, double chance & team goals)

Half Time Result

Vitória 4.65 Model: 22%
Draw 2.19 Model: 46%
Palmeiras 2.62 Model: 32%

Double Chance

Vitória or Draw 1.75 Model: 57%
Vitória or Palmeiras 1.34 Model: 70%
Draw or Palmeiras 1.25 Model: 73%

Vitória Goals

Over 0.5 1.51 Model: 64%
Over 1.5 3.61 Model: 28%

Palmeiras Goals

Over 0.5 1.21 Model: 75%
Over 1.5 2.15 Model: 40%

Vitória vs Palmeiras Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Vitória vs Palmeiras?

Over 1.5 Goals: Vitória see 2+ goals in 70% of home games, Palmeiras in 80% of away games. A reliable lower-risk option for this fixture.

Which team is likely to win, Vitória or Palmeiras?

Vitória have a slight form edge at home (90% wins) over Palmeiras on the road (60% wins) in Serie A. Home advantage could be the deciding factor.

Will both teams score in the match between Vitória and Palmeiras?

Mixed. Vitória have seen BTTS in 40% of home games, Palmeiras in 60% of away games. The stats don't strongly point either way for this Serie A fixture.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Vitória and Palmeiras?

Uncertain. Vitória have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Palmeiras in 40% of away games in Serie A. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Vitória or Palmeiras?

Palmeiras have the stronger away scoring record. 2+ goals in 30% of away games compared to Vitória's 30% at home. The visitors may be the more productive side.

Will there be many corners in the match between Vitória and Palmeiras?

Possibly. Palmeiras frequently reach high corner counts away (90%), while Vitória are lower at home (50%). The visitors may create the majority of set-piece opportunities.

Explore Our Football Stats & Tips

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Scott T. (Manchester, UK)

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