Primera Division · Uruguay 🕒 Sunday 12th July, 01:00 BST

Wanderers vs Atlético Progreso Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Wanderers Home 4W 4D 2L last 10 home
VS
Atlético Progreso Away 3W 2D 5L last 10 away
Win Probability
Wanderers 35% Draw 31% Atlético Progreso 34%
⭐ Our Prediction Under 3.5 Goals See why ↓

Wanderers vs Atlético Progreso Prediction

⭐ Our Prediction

Under 3.5 Goals

Medium confidence

Wanderers have stayed under 4 goals in 90% of home matches, Atlético Progreso in 90% of away fixtures. Both sides consistently keep the scoring tight.

What the model says
35% Wanderers win 31% Draw 34% Atlético Progreso win 44% BTTS 36% Over 2.5 Goals 1-1 most likely score

Wanderers average 1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per home match this season. Atlético Progreso average 0.9 scored and 1.3 conceded in away fixtures. Wanderers have won 4/10 home games (40%) this season; Atlético Progreso have won 3/10 on the road (30%). There's no dominant edge either way.

Both sides have been involved in low-scoring matches this season. Wanderers have seen 3+ goals in only 40% of home fixtures; Atlético Progreso in 40% away. Wanderers average 1 scored and 0.9 conceded at home, Atlético Progreso 0.9 and 1.3 on the road. The numbers point toward a tight game.

BTTS figures are mid-range for both sides: Wanderers at 40% in home games (4/10), Atlético Progreso at 50% away (5/10). Neither a clear yes nor no based on the stats alone.

Corner data is available but trends are mixed. Wanderers see 9+ corners in 50% of home games, Atlético Progreso in 40% away. No strong edge in this market for this fixture.

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League Table

Where Wanderers and Atlético Progreso sit in the Primera Division table for the 2026 season. League position gives useful context alongside current home and away form when assessing this fixture.

# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
8 Wanderers H 19 7 5 7 22:24 -2 26
15 Atlético Progreso A 19 3 4 12 16:30 -14 13
View the full Primera Division 2026 table
# Team P W D L Goals GD Pts
1 Deportivo Maldonado 19 12 3 4 35:20 +15 39
2 Racing 19 10 7 2 25:15 +10 37
3 Peñarol 19 11 3 5 28:18 +10 36
4 Albion 19 9 5 5 29:20 +9 32
5 Nacional 19 10 1 8 31:26 +5 31
6 Central Español 19 9 4 6 27:25 +2 31
7 Montevideo City Torque 19 8 5 6 29:24 +5 29
8 Wanderers H 19 7 5 7 22:24 -2 26
9 Liverpool 19 6 7 6 22:20 +2 25
10 Cerro Largo 19 7 3 9 21:20 +1 24
11 Defensor Sporting 19 5 8 6 15:16 -1 23
12 Boston River 19 6 3 10 19:26 -7 21
13 Danubio 18 4 7 7 19:26 -7 19
14 Juventud 18 5 3 10 22:29 -7 18
15 Atlético Progreso A 19 3 4 12 16:30 -14 13
16 Cerro 19 3 4 12 10:31 -21 13

Team Form

Atlético Progreso have lost 50% of their away matches this season, while Wanderers have been more solid at home (20% losses). The home side may find it easier to impose themselves.

H Wanderers: last 10 home A Atlético Progreso: last 10 away
Won
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Drawn
H
4/10 (40%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Lost
H
2/10 (20%)
A
5/10 (50%)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Wanderers have seen both teams score in 40% of home games, Atlético Progreso in 50% of away games. The full BTTS breakdown for both sides is below.

H Wanderers: last 10 home A Atlético Progreso: last 10 away
Both Teams Scored
H
4/10 (40%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Scored Themselves
H
7/10 (70%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Conceded
H
5/10 (50%)
A
9/10 (90%)

Model probability: BTTS Yes 44% · BTTS No 56%

Match Goals

Wanderers have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Atlético Progreso in 40% of away games. The full goals breakdown for both sides is below.

H Wanderers: last 10 home A Atlético Progreso: last 10 away
Over 1.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
7/10 (70%)
Over 2.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 3.5 Goals
H
1/10 (10%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Full goals breakdown (Over 0.5 & Under markets)
Over 0.5 Goals
H
8/10 (80%)
A
10/10 (100%)
Under 0.5 Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Under 1.5 Goals
H
4/10 (40%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Under 2.5 Goals
H
6/10 (60%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Under 3.5 Goals
H
9/10 (90%)
A
9/10 (90%)

Team Goals

Wanderers have scored 2+ goals in 10% of home games this season, Atlético Progreso in 0% of away games. The full team goals breakdown is below.

Wanderers 1 scored · 0.9 conceded per home game Atlético Progreso 0.9 scored · 1.3 conceded per away game
H Wanderers: last 10 home A Atlético Progreso: last 10 away
Scored 2+ Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Conceded 2+ Goals
H
2/10 (20%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full team goals breakdown (scored & conceded)

Goals Scored

Over 0.5 Scored
H
7/10 (70%)
A
6/10 (60%)
Over 1.5 Scored
H
2/10 (20%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 2.5 Scored
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Scored
H
0/10 (0%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Goals Conceded

Over 0.5 Conceded
H
5/10 (50%)
A
9/10 (90%)
Over 1.5 Conceded
H
2/10 (20%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 2.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 3.5 Conceded
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Season totals: Wanderers 10 scored / 9 conceded at home · Atlético Progreso 9 scored / 13 conceded away

Match Corners

Wanderers regularly reach high corner counts at home (70%), while Atlético Progreso are lower on the road (40%). The home side are likely to dominate the corner count in this fixture.

H Wanderers: last 10 home A Atlético Progreso: last 10 away
Over 8.5 Corners
H
7/10 (70%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Over 9.5 Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
4/10 (40%)
Full match corners breakdown (Over 7.5 – 12.5)
Over 7.5 Corners
H
9/10 (90%)
A
5/10 (50%)
Over 10.5 Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 11.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 12.5 Corners
H
3/10 (30%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Team Corners

Wanderers have moderate corner counts at home (6+ corners in 40% of games), and are generally solid defensively, conceding 6+ corners in only 30% of home matches.

Atlético Progreso have moderate corner counts away (6+ corners in 10% of games), and are generally solid defensively away from home, conceding 6+ corners in only 20% of away matches.

H Wanderers: last 10 home A Atlético Progreso: last 10 away
Won 6+ Corners
H
4/10 (40%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Conceded 6+ Corners
H
5/10 (50%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Full team corners breakdown (won & conceded)

Corners Won

Over 4.5 Corners For
H
5/10 (50%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 5.5 Corners For
H
4/10 (40%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 6.5 Corners For
H
4/10 (40%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 7.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)
Over 8.5 Corners For
H
1/10 (10%)
A
0/10 (0%)

Corners Conceded

Over 4.5 Corners Against
H
7/10 (70%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 5.5 Corners Against
H
5/10 (50%)
A
3/10 (30%)
Over 6.5 Corners Against
H
3/10 (30%)
A
2/10 (20%)
Over 7.5 Corners Against
H
2/10 (20%)
A
1/10 (10%)
Over 8.5 Corners Against
H
0/10 (0%)
A
1/10 (10%)

Wanderers vs Atlético Progreso Prediction FAQs

What is the prediction for Wanderers vs Atlético Progreso?

Under 3.5 Goals: Wanderers have stayed under 4 goals in 90% of home matches, Atlético Progreso in 90% of away fixtures. Both sides consistently keep the scoring tight.

Which team is likely to win, Wanderers or Atlético Progreso?

Wanderers have a slight form edge at home (40% wins) over Atlético Progreso on the road (30% wins) in Primera Division. Home advantage could be the deciding factor.

Will both teams score in the match between Wanderers and Atlético Progreso?

Mixed. Wanderers have seen BTTS in 40% of home games, Atlético Progreso in 50% of away games. The stats don't strongly point either way for this Primera Division fixture.

Will there be Over 2.5 goals in the match between Wanderers and Atlético Progreso?

Uncertain. Wanderers have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 40% of home games, Atlético Progreso in 40% of away games in Primera Division. The stats don't point strongly in either direction.

Which team is more likely to score multiple goals: Wanderers or Atlético Progreso?

Wanderers have the stronger scoring record. 2+ goals in 10% of home games compared to Atlético Progreso's 0% away. The home side look the more likely to score multiple times.

Will there be many corners in the match between Wanderers and Atlético Progreso?

Possibly. Wanderers regularly reach high corner counts at home (70%), while Atlético Progreso are lower on the road (40%). The home side may drive the corner count in this fixture.

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